Bonnie Advisories

[bahamaswx]

Tropical Cyclone Tracy.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=36122

[Aquawind]

Yeah I usually post the winds being I can figure them out rather quickly...lol I think it can help people learn to read the obs as well..

[Thunder44]

She doesn't seem to be intensifying at all according to the latest vortex message...

URNT12 KNHC 110632
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0632Z
B. 25 DEG 13 MIN N
90 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1466 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 099 DEG 32 KT
G. 003 DEG 9 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 18 C/ 1498 M
J. 22 C/ 1496 M
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 32 KT N QUAD 0630Z.

32kts? She may even be depression now.

[Aquawind]

Vortex..I am going to bed..gonna be a long week..

000
URNT12 KNHC 110632
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/0632Z
B. 25 DEG 13 MIN N
90 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1466 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 099 DEG 32 KT
G. 003 DEG 9 NM
H. 1004 MB
I. 18 C/ 1498 M
J. 22 C/ 1496 M
K. 20 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/ 2 NM
P. AF977 0702A BONNIE OB 02
MAX FL WIND 32 KT N QUAD 0630Z.

[Aquawind]

I hear ya Thunder..marginal..no overnight bomb..

[LaBreeze]

Is the fat lady clearing her throat on the way to the opera? Hmmm?

[tallywx]

Not with the renewed convection and banding around her center. Since this evening, she's held her own. Shear has relaxed, and she has yet to start a more favorable NE movement. Once she starts moving, then I think we'll begin to see what she is/isn't capable of.

[Ripopgodazippa]

5am Bonnie Discussion

WTNT42 KNHC 110854
TROPICAL STORM BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

LATEST RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH. THE PRESSURE WAS DOWN A BIT...1001 MB...AND THE PEAK FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS WERE 44 KT. A DROPSONDE REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 41
KT. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS
40 KT. DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED FOR THE LAST 12 HOURS BUT
HAS BEEN INCREASING MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS...AND THE
AIRCRAFT CREW REPORTED THAT BONNIE HAS A PARTIAL EYEWALL AGAIN.
BONNIE WILL BE PASSING OVER VERY WARM WATER AND HAS ANOTHER 12
HOURS OR SO UNDER LIGHT SHEAR CONDITIONS...SO THERE IS STILL AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT QUITE A BIT LESS THAN THE
GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE BONNIE A HURRICANE. AS BONNIE
APPROACHES THE COASTLINE...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND BE
A LIMITING FACTOR ON INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 000/4. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST TRACK OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. DATA FROM THE G-IV JET
MISSION LAST NIGHT SHOW MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW IS ABOUT TO SCOOP
BONNIE UP. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED ON A NORTHEASTWARD
TRACK THAT SHOULD TAKE BONNIE TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-36
HOURS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/0900Z 25.5N 90.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 11/1800Z 26.7N 89.7W 45 KT
24HR VT 12/0600Z 28.6N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 12/1800Z 31.0N 85.0W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 13/0600Z 34.0N 81.5W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 14/0600Z 43.0N 72.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 15/0600Z...ABSORBED

[Matthew5]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Take a look at that, a nice flare up could this be a start of things to come?

[soonertwister]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

Take a look at that, a nice flare up could this be a start of things to come?

Looks like Bonnie may take her moisture from upstream. Pressure has dropped 3mb in the last 3 hours. Nothing explosive, but six hours ago she looked to be on life support. Not so fast!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/WV/20.jpg

Top winds up 9 knots too. Never turn your back on the pickpocket.

[Nimbus]

Winds at a station about a 100 miles from the center went from 15 knots at 130 degrees to 25 knots at 160 overnight.

[Matthew5]

http://net-waves.com/weather/td02.php

Look at that blow up of convection(Cdo) right over the eye over tropical storm Bonnie(Yes a eye was reported) with that being said it is like throwing a match in a lake of gas! Can you say booooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom!

[HurricaneGirl]

Bonnie actually looks like a real Tropical Storm now!!

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[weatherlover427]

I knew it was too early to write this off...

[Lowpressure]

Dixiebreeze may have jumped the gun a bit premature yesterday about Bonnie, but today Dixie certainly has something to get excited over. This one may come right at Dixie. I think Dixie is in the Florida panhandle, can someone confirm that?

[cycloneye]

Dixiebreeze may have jumped the gun a bit premature yesterday about Bonnie, but today Dixie certainly has something to get excited over. This one may come right at Dixie. I think Dixie is in the Florida panhandle, can someone confirm that?

She lives in Crystal River,Fla where is that located?

[PTPatrick]

I think it is in the big bend area, also known as the nature coast.

[Dean4Storms]

Crystal River is between Cedar Key and Tampa, actually a little closer to Cedar Key.

Bonnie looks impressive this AM with a nice CDO and limited shear along with 90 degree SST's she looks to be strengthening and maybe rather rapidly.

[Lowpressure]

Crystal river is south east of Cedar Key, Florida. I want to say it is 40 or 50 or so miles from Cedar Key.
We will know when she wakes up for sure.