Ivan Advisories

[shorrock]

Isn't Ivan passing through the #2 Herbert Box?

[dirtgirl]

Thanks to whomever posted this link yesterday to local weather observations in Cayman: http://www.weatherincayman.com/

it was interesting to re-load every 10 min yesterday and watch the pressure steadily drop and the rain totals go up. the winds fluctuated but i saw gusts up to 29 mph before going to bed. so this morning i wake up & reload it and here's what it says:

(as of 6:40 am, local time):
<b>Wind: </b> ENE at 51.0 mph -- ok, that i can believe
<b>Barometer: </b> 979.2 mb Falling Rapidly -- this too
<b>Today's Rain: </b> 56.72 in -- huh? can the equipment just not handle heavy rainfall?

In any case, I thought I'd post since it's indicative of local conditions and I haven't seen much here on that topic in a while...

[mobilebay]

Seems like they've been downplaying that trend since Ivan formed! I mean, remember when it was forcasted to slam into Barbados?

THANK YOU!!! That's what I was trying to say earlier.

Good morning, Mobile... I've come to rely on your extensive research and posting on the models - and I've also see you get bashed several times for your persistence (that's ashame ). But I'd like to thank you for the updates!! This AM, what's your read on things for us in the central gulf?

Well with each model run the models trend further west. the only exception to this is the GFS, and BAMM. Wich has been making noresters out of his the entire track. The only thing I can think is the NHC must remember they missed to the left with charley and frances.

[BayouVenteux]

looking at the models and I am uncertain why NHC moved the path further east since last night when the models have shifted more west.
guess time will tell

IMHO, possibly because they have strong indications in their sampling of the environment to the west and north of Ivan of the upper level steering winds that will turn the storm more to the NW, in keeping with their forecasted track. In the 8 a.m. intermediate advisory, they state "A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS." Don't want to get into semantics too much, but notice the absence of the word "GRADUAL"? In my 20+ years of following the NHC advisories on storms, usually this type of statement telegraphs a fairly high degree of confidence on their part, at least in the near-term, of a storms forecasted motion.

[BirdyCin]

Early season storms that pass through Hebert's Box #2 generally end up going west and north. Later season storms that pass through, like Irene, have a greater chance of affecting SE Florida: http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/cont ... 03box.html

[caneman]

Seems like they've been downplaying that trend since Ivan formed! I mean, remember when it was forcasted to slam into Barbados?

THANK YOU!!! That's what I was trying to say earlier.

Good morning, Mobile... I've come to rely on your extensive research and posting on the models - and I've also see you get bashed several times for your persistence (that's ashame ). But I'd like to thank you for the updates!! This AM, what's your read on things for us in the central gulf?

Well with each model run the models trend further west. the only exception to this is the GFS, and BAMM. Wich has been making noresters out of his the entire track. The only thing I can think is the NHC must remember they missed to the left with charley and frances.

NHC didn't miss with either Charley or Frances as both were in the forecasted cone. What I can't understand here is how people think Ivan is going to bust thru and go against the Westerlies that are clearly establlished in the GOM.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Isn't Ivan passing through the #2 Herbert Box?

Hebert box

[jwelch5]

Caneman, where would you go to look at the westerlies visually? Newbie here and trying to learn as I see new concepts.

[logybogy]

and south of the NHC forecast. It's been this way for days and days now.

This thing is going to slam into the Yucatan while we all await the phantom turn to the north.

[caneman]

Caneman, where would you go to look at the westerlies visually? Newbie here and trying to learn as I see new concepts.

Water Vapor loop, try this. Set to 15 and hit animate.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html

[Derek Ortt]

a caller on wfor tv from Cayman is reporting that buildings and a shelter has lost its roof and water is coming into a shelter

[tailgater]

WNW over the last 15 hrs. with wobbles NW and W but the speed concerns me. That northerly turn will be harder to take place at speeds above 10 mph.

[cycloneye]

Looking at the track this morning still I think that at least a hurricane watch for the Yucatan Penninsula is needed just in case Ivan deviates more to the west than forecasted.

[Benlanka]

I found out that the rain is in tenths of inches. Todays rain would be 5.7". Another station on Cayman reported 4" of rain before it stopped publishing data this morning. Anyway, I would find it hard to believe Ivan is producing 65" of rain or over a 1000 mm to use international standards .

[LCfromFL]

Why do you think he's speeding up? Seems like he's beel plodding along for a day or so at 9 - 10 mph.

[Ixolib]

and south of the NHC forecast. It's been this way for days and days now.

This thing is going to slam into the Yucatan while we all await the phantom turn to the north.

You're right!! Westward Ho... And others share your view. Interesting discussion and links: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=44211

[mobilebay]

and south of the NHC forecast. It's been this way for days and days now.

This thing is going to slam into the Yucatan while we all await the phantom turn to the north.

thats a "short term west wobble" , that has lasted for over 350 miles

[logybogy]

Could this be related to the wind maxima issue in the 5am discussion?

Is Grand Cayman getting Ivan's full force of 150 mph + even though the eye is passing to its south because of this displacement?

[cycloneye]

http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm

They are changing with every run and in this 12:00 one they did the same but not a huge change in the tracks from the 6:00 run.

[Aquawind]

Wow..They have a long way to go before it ends..