Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Iceresistance]

Trend from the past 4 runs, strongest yet.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslp_pcpn_watl_fh174_trend.gif

[LarryWx]

The UKMET (12Z) has this as a TC per the textual output for the second time as it was also on the 12Z 9/14 run:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 13.6N 76.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2022 144 13.6N 76.4W 1006 26

*Corrected to say this is the 2nd UKMET run with it

[skyline385]

The GFS is maintaining the intensity of this system as a strong TS (Mid-990s mb) before it reaches the Western Caribbean, I'm really not liking this trend.

Think an early strong run would cause it to miss CONUS simply because it would be more NE when getting yanked by the trough.


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[SFLcane]

[Ivanhater]

Ridge is stronger. Looks to miss the trough this run.

[skyline385]

It’s trapped this run, the 588dm ridge builds back in after the weakness from the trough




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[Iceresistance]

The best analog modelstorm that I can come up with right now is Delta 2020

[skyline385]

The best analog modelstorm that I can come up with right now is Delta 2020

Or Gilbert from everyone’s favorite analog year


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[Fancy1001]

The best analog modelstorm that I can come up with right now is Delta 2020

Delta, also known as the storm that failed to become Wilma lol.

[Ivanhater]

This run is not going to end well for the Gulf coast

[aspen]

The GFS is maintaining the intensity of this system as a strong TS (Mid-990s mb) before it reaches the Western Caribbean, I'm really not liking this trend.

Probably overdoing it. Fiona’s outflow and the trough picking it up seem to create shear over the eastern half of the Caribbean. The wave’s simulated IR look takes a massive hit by 4-5 days out on the 12z GFS. However, the western half looks better.

[skyline385]

Oh boy it’s still going




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[toad strangler]

Nothing left to scoop her up on the 12Z GFS. Looks to head west fright into the Yucatan

[chris_fit]

Don't see how this goes North...

[AutoPenalti]

Misses the trough, this is going to the Yucatan.

[Fancy1001]

Looks like it’s rapidly intensifying right before slamming into the Yucatán.

[tolakram]

Tropical Tidbits video touches on this area at the end. Link has a time start of 12:08

https://youtu.be/7DQ5bbjGi1M?t=728

[toad strangler]

There's your classic Caribbean Cruiser

[Iceresistance]

Oh boy it’s still going




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Oh jeez! I would not be surprised if the GFS decides to send this down to the sub-900s in the next few runs if this trend keeps going like this.

[chris_fit]

Just watch that door close...