Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[SFLcane]

Looks like UKMET doesn't develop it.

[SFLcane]

Lots of variability..

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave currently near the west coast of Africa is expected
to move quickly westward during the next several days. Some slow
development is possible late this week or over the weekend when the
system is several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

Earlier today I had said this: “My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.”

The just released 12Z GEFS illustrates this quite well. About 2/3 of the 21 or so members track near or to the right of the 12Z GFS close CONUS miss. All of these also miss and mainly further out. However, 1/3 of the members (7) are to the left (closer to or in the far N Caribbean). Every one of these either hits, barely misses, or ends the run about to hit the CONUS with a big H. The concerning thing on this run is that this 1/3 is higher than the prior 3 GEFS. It includes 5 of the 21 total members getting into the Gulf. All 5 subsequently end up turning NNE before either hitting or about to hit FL (anywhere from panhandle south to SW FL) at hour 384. The scary thing is that is a climo favored track from late Sep through Oct.

[AutoPenalti]

Earlier today I had said this: “My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.”

The just released 12Z GEFS illustrates this quite well. About 2/3 of the 21 or so members track near or to the right of the 12Z GFS close CONUS miss. All of these also miss and mainly further out. However, 1/3 of the members (7) are to the left (closer to or in the far N Caribbean). Every one of these either hits, barely misses, or ends the run about to hit the CONUS with a big H. The concerning thing on this run is that this 1/3 is higher than the prior 3 GEFS. It includes 5 of the 21 total members getting into the Gulf. All 5 subsequently end up turning NNE before either hitting or about to hit FL (anywhere from panhandle south to SW FL) at hour 384. The scary thing is that is a climo favored track from late Sep through Oct.

Can you post the GEFS ensembles?

[LarryWx]

Earlier today I had said this: “My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.”

The just released 12Z GEFS illustrates this quite well. About 2/3 of the 21 or so members track near or to the right of the 12Z GFS close CONUS miss. All of these also miss and mainly further out. However, 1/3 of the members (7) are to the left (closer to or in the far N Caribbean). Every one of these either hits, barely misses, or ends the run about to hit the CONUS with a big H. The concerning thing on this run is that this 1/3 is higher than the prior 3 GEFS. It includes 5 of the 21 total members getting into the Gulf. All 5 subsequently end up turning NNE before either hitting or about to hit FL (anywhere from panhandle south to SW FL) at hour 384. The scary thing is that is a climo favored track from late Sep through Oct.

Can you post the GEFS ensembles?

Sorry, I can’t because they’re from a paid for provider. However, Tidbits will have them out shortly.

[Kazmit]

Earlier today I had said this: “My thinking right now for CONUS is pretty logical and based on model consensus of the last few days: if it is 250 or so miles north of the Caribbean or further north, there’d be an excellent chance for OTS from CONUS. But if it is just north of or in the Caribbean, trouble would likely be ahead.”

The just released 12Z GEFS illustrates this quite well. About 2/3 of the 21 or so members track near or to the right of the 12Z GFS close CONUS miss. All of these also miss and mainly further out. However, 1/3 of the members (7) are to the left (closer to or in the far N Caribbean). Every one of these either hits, barely misses, or ends the run about to hit the CONUS with a big H. The concerning thing on this run is that this 1/3 is higher than the prior 3 GEFS. It includes 5 of the 21 total members getting into the Gulf. All 5 subsequently end up turning NNE before either hitting or about to hit FL (anywhere from panhandle south to SW FL) at hour 384. The scary thing is that is a climo favored track from late Sep through Oct.

This is one of those storms where the Hebert Box comes in handy.

[Hurricaneman]

While I think it would change as it’s long range but the GFS shows hurricane conditions Through eastern New England and Nova Scotia

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro seems to keep this weak around the Lesser Antilles and North of Puerto Rico. The one thing the Euro isn’t good at is system development so based on the models this could be something to watch because it could be being underestimated by the models especially the Euro but is decent to good with track

[LarryWx]

Tidbits now has the 12Z GEFS. One can clearly see the two camps of tracks. The bigger camp (~2/3) is well offshore the E US but the smaller camp (~1/3) is in a very dangerous position, most of which get into the Gulf.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_53.png

[SFLcane]

Euro is very strung out.

[toad strangler]

Euro is very strung out.

12z OP shows big weakness at 500mb. OTS or possibly towards Bermuda

[SoupBone]

Tidbits now has the 12Z GEFS. One can clearly see the two camps of tracks. The bigger camp (~2/3) is well offshore the E US but the smaller camp (~1/3) is in a very dangerous position, most of which get into the Gulf.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=168

The ones tracking it to the GoM have it traversing Hispaniola and Cuba then re-emerging.

[Hurricaneman]

Euro is very strung out.

12z OP shows big weakness at 500mb. OTS or possibly towards Bermuda

The thing is this run is about 150 to 200 miles SW of the 0z at 216 so it’s trending west even though it still turns its significantly farther west

[LarryWx]

Tidbits now has the 12Z GEFS. One can clearly see the two camps of tracks. The bigger camp (~2/3) is well offshore the E US but the smaller camp (~1/3) is in a very dangerous position, most of which get into the Gulf.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=168

The ones tracking it to the GoM have it traversing Hispaniola and Cuba then re-emerging.

Yes, indeed, about all of those dangerous Gulf bound members first traverse those islands. But I can't figure out why you put a lol emoji at the end of your post. Was that an error?

[SFLcane]

Euro is very strung out.

12z OP shows big weakness at 500mb. OTS or possibly towards Bermuda

Yeah northern GEFS dominant cluster.

[LarryWx]

Tidbits now has the 12Z GEFS. One can clearly see the two camps of tracks. The bigger camp (~2/3) is well offshore the E US but the smaller camp (~1/3) is in a very dangerous position, most of which get into the Gulf.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_53.png

Although not an actual prediction, I've got the sneaking feeling that this is going to end up as a big Gulf problem. Along with the trend of a bigger sized Gulf camp of the last 3 GEFS, I'm thinking of climo as well as model biases of too much E US troughing.

[LarryWx]

OK, here we go, folks. The 216 hour 12Z EPS has the strong E US/W ATL ridging once again. And it again numerous TCs. These stretch from the far north-central Caribbean ENE ~1000 miles out into the open Atlantic. Let's see where these go during the rest of this run. Many will obviously recurve but how many will get into or near the Gulf/FL?

[SFLcane]

Euro is very strung out.

12z OP shows big weakness at 500mb. OTS or possibly towards Bermuda

The thing is this run is about 150 to 200 miles SW of the 0z at 216 so it’s trending west even though it still turns its significantly farther west

It’s also super weak.

[LarryWx]

OK, here we go, folks. The 216 hour 12Z EPS has the strong E US/W ATL ridging once again. And it again numerous TCs. These stretch from the far north-central Caribbean ENE ~1000 miles out into the open Atlantic. Let's see where these go during the rest of this run. Many will obviously recurve but how many will get into or near the Gulf/FL?

The verdict is no surprise. Whereas ~75% recurve early and never get that close to the CONUS, the other 25% (the ones stretching from skirting the north coast of Hispaniola down to inside the Caribbean) either skirts/just misses SE FL and/or just misses far E NC or goes into the Gulf. I count about 15% of the ~51 members hitting FL on the Gulf side, not a trivial number, and more than just the 2-3 I saw on the prior run. So, watch and see if there's a continued trend to more Gulf members on future runs. If we start seeing more runs near/through the Greater Antilles or further south, that would be a troubling sign.