Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Iceresistance]

GFS stalls this SW of New Orleans or SE of Houston, what?

[Ivanhater]

Trough has it..looks to be hooking NE

[ScottNAtlanta]

Current GFS has this going across the Caribbean clips the YP and heads for the TX/LA border. That is kind of suspect for this time of year. You don't get many wester GOM strikes as you get close to Oct.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like it grabbed it. That trough timing will be critical.

[PTrackerLA]

Lol just stalled south of LA through 300hrs on 12z GFS as one of the largest modeled storms I've seen in the GOM.

[Iceresistance]

Still slams this near Houston by the end of the run.

[BobHarlem]

Just south of Port Arthur, next frame is well inland. South Florida then Texas the next run. It's going to go all over, what's next?

[skyline385]

The best analog modelstorm that I can come up with right now is Delta 2020

Or Gilbert from everyone’s favorite analog year


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Gilbert didn’t form in 2013

2013 was old analog, now it’s all about 1988 with the late start.


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[skyline385]

Such a weird end to the run, the weakness is there to pick it up but the ridge to the SE seems to be fighting with the one above Texas and stalling it.




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[skyline385]

12Z ICON, starts developing it around 90 hours




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[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1571911399080853504

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

Just for fun.

Different set up at 240.

[SFLcane]

gfs will probably flip back to a florida landfall later. Good chunk of the gefs ensembles head north towards cuba and florida.

[toad strangler]

We have LEMON juice

[ElectricStorm]

2. Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days while the system approaches the
Windward Islands toward the end of the week and moves over the
eastern Caribbean sea over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[jlauderdal]

gfs will probably flip back to a florida landfall later. Good chunk of the gefs ensembles head north towards cuba and florida.

https://i.postimg.cc/jdNVTv93/gefs44.gif

GFS and Florida(especially S of Orlando) have a very special relationship

I know, all of my ripping the GFS and Florida over the last few years will come back and bite me with a major but until then, it's
considered a GFS default solution.

BTW, the rainy season finally arrived on the immediate SE coast. 6 straight days of measurable precip, thunder and lightning occurring at any time, its here. Maybe the hurricane season arrives late this year and goes late.

[kevin]

Now that we have a lemon with some pretty aggressive modeling so far....

https://art.ngfiles.com/images/1315000/1315982_crispytoastyt_here-we-go.png?f1592354884

The 2022 season is off to the races, it just started a month later.

[SFLcane]

[LarryWx]

The Euro has been active with this AEW since the 0Z 9/13 run. It even had a TS SE of the Dom. Rep. on the 0Z 9/14 run at hour 240 (see below). So, the Euro was well ahead of the GFS regarding this: