NotoSans wrote:The shoaling issue causes a high, not low, bias in SFMR winds.
Mismatch between SFMR and flight-level winds is frequently observed in storms undergoing ERC.
You’re absolutely correct on the second point, but I’ve also seen a low bias on SFMR in shallow waters, as well...being why I’d weight the other data more heavily. No doubt this storm has weakened considerably, but not to the point reflected in the SFMR data.
That all said, a 130 kt Cat 4 seems most appropriate for its current intensity.