Tropical wave east of the Windward Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[Iceresistance]

Now that we have a lemon with some pretty aggressive modeling so far....

https://art.ngfiles.com/images/1315000/1315982_crispytoastyt_here-we-go.png?f1592354884

The 2022 season is off to the races, it just started a month later.

It seems like it was trying to install an update, which is why July-Early September was very quiet.

[psyclone]

This thread and forum will go bananas if this gets going. Too many false alarms makes for a slow liftoff...but i'm slightly intrigued.

[SoupBone]

Current GFS has this going across the Caribbean clips the YP and heads for the TX/LA border. That is kind of suspect for this time of year. You don't get many wester GOM strikes as you get close to Oct.

Definitely odd for Texas, but not so much for Louisiana. Texas has had a few too though in the beginning of October. If it was later in October, I'd definitely be scratching my head.

[SoupBone]

This thread and forum will go bananas if this gets going. Too many false alarms makes for a slow liftoff...but i'm slightly intrigued.

If wxman jumps in and he's concerned, this thread will blow up.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has the most impressive 850 vorticity for this AEW in many runs at 72.

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS once again with only 2 members hitting Florida at 240hr.

Others seem to follow the recent 12z OP model run towards the Yucatan into the GOM.

[cane5]

Feels like we have had a trough or a shortwave dipping low all season. Alex, Earl and Fiona all got yanked by one and that pattern is typically the most dangerous setup for Florida in October. The western Atlantic does not seem anywhere as hostile as the MDR with tons of untapped OHC so October will be a month to keep an eye out for this season.

Very true the October storms kind of sneak up on you. Even Wilma reversed back from the Yucatán though a little more from the west it represented that general area.
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[jlauderdal]

GEFS once again with only 2 members hitting Florida at 240hr.

Others seem to follow the recent 12z OP model run towards the Yucatan into the GOM.

That's too bad, better for us if many members hit us at 10 days.

[AutoPenalti]

GEFS once again with only 2 members hitting Florida at 240hr.

Others seem to follow the recent 12z OP model run towards the Yucatan into the GOM.

That's too bad, better for us if many members hit us at 10 days.

You got it.

[Iceresistance]

This thread and forum will go bananas if this gets going. Too many false alarms makes for a slow liftoff...but i'm slightly intrigued.

If wxman jumps in and he's concerned, this thread will blow up.

It's too far out to determine if this is a concern with Heat Miser (Wxman57). We will probably need to wait for a few days for him to chime in on future 98L.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro at 120 hours is the most organized for this of any Euro run since the 0Z 9/14 run.

[tolakram]

How about that, now Euro is saying maybe this will develop sooner than later.

[lsuhurricane]

This Euro run will certainly up the ante. Orange seems likely.

[Ivanhater]

Strengthening at 144 hrs

[chris_fit]

Ridging looks much less than on the GFS - Curious where this ends up

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

Trend

[tolakram]

[Ivanhater]

Really starting to spin up fast at 168. Ridge breaking down over the GOM as a trough swings by

[AutoPenalti]

Euro has the trough lifting this up.