2021 WPAC Season
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Current 2021 potential over the tropics triumphs
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: 2021 WPAC Season
The Euro and CMC have begun to show this system, although it doesn’t get near the GFS’s Cat 5 intensity.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
mrbagyo wrote:Phantom model storm watching is so fun. LOL (not fun though if that actually happens - that's like adding too much salt and lemon to our covid injury here in PH)
I prefer a oceanic fish storm
So far the GFS still shows a recurve or fish scenario somewhat but quite too close to land for comfort
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2021 WPAC Season
EURO on board.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
GFS has been very consistent on developing the large area of convection south of Guam and strengthening it to a very powerful typhoon with a peak in the 910's, 920's.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
12z CMC and 12z Euro both much weaker than their 00z runs.
12z GFS starts development in about 5 days.
12z EPS continues to support development, much more than the deterministic Euro.
12z GFS starts development in about 5 days.
12z EPS continues to support development, much more than the deterministic Euro.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
The next chance for substantial rainfall gets its start on Thursday
the 8th of April. The GFS and the ECMWF both start to build up a
near-equatorial trough, possibly turning it into a monsoon trough.
Both models develop a circulation along it, with the ECMWF keeping it
weak and south, passing through Palau. The GFS strengthens it some
and takes it a little farther north. Until it actually forms, the
placement is anybody`s guess. Usually though, when the models harp on
something like this over several runs, it usually does form...
eventually. Sometimes they keep harping on it for a few weeks... then
it finally forms. So, we will have to keep an eye on it.
&&
With an active
Madden Julian Oscillation moving through western Micronesia the next
week or so, it is no surprise there is some ensemble support for
gradual development near the Republic of Palau early next week.
Plenty of time to iron things out, but a wetter pattern seems
reasonable later this weekend and early next week. Fairly benign
seas are expected with mainly background trade swell.
&&
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Kingarabian wrote:12z CMC and 12z Euro both much weaker than their 00z runs.
12z GFS starts development in about 5 days.
12z EPS continues to support development, much more than the deterministic Euro.
Quite interesting. Past 3 runs of GFS takes a rapidly strengthening typhoon towards Guam and the Northern Marianas.
Last edited by euro6208 on Mon Apr 05, 2021 8:16 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
This WWB means business.
Long range GFS
18z
00z
06z
Long range GFS
18z
00z
06z
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
The Euro and Canadian continue to not support a strong Typhoon solution that the GFS is insisting on. But they are in excellent agreement on the initial disturbance. Just massive differences in intensity at this time. But as we do know, it's always better to go over rather than under when it comes to the WPAC.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
GFS is still going crazy with the next system, it would be named 'Surigae'
6z, April 6th
0z, April 6th (Lowest pressure is down to 925 MB, highest pressure at it's lowest in it's recent runs)
6z, April 6th
0z, April 6th (Lowest pressure is down to 925 MB, highest pressure at it's lowest in it's recent runs)
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Difference of 2 days...WPAC going bonkers...
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
12z GFS, April 6th
Has the storm going OVER Guam, I really hope that is not the case . . .
Has the storm going OVER Guam, I really hope that is not the case . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
wxman57 wrote:The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.
I’m guessing the poleward GFS track is due to it catching upper-level steering flows as it becomes stronger and vertically stacked. However, due to being such a low-rider, it will be within some exceptionally warm waters if it successfully consolidates, so there’s a very real chance of it going bonkers like the GFS insists.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
aspen wrote:wxman57 wrote:The GFS is most definitely the outlier as far as this potential development. It's most likely too strong with it and too far north. Other models agree on a much weaker system tracking toward the central Philippines next week. Seems more reasonable.
I’m guessing the poleward GFS track is due to it catching upper-level steering flows as it becomes stronger and vertically stacked. However, due to being such a low-rider, it will be within some exceptionally warm waters if it successfully consolidates, so there’s a very real chance of it going bonkers like the GFS insists.
Agreed. It looks like the main inhibitor is the depicted large nature of the disturbance. However OHC and atmosphere clearly favor the high end intensity estimates.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
April 6th, 18z GFS
May go sub-900 at this rate!
May go sub-900 at this rate!
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All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
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Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Iceresistance wrote:April 6th, 18z GFS
May go sub-900 at this rate!
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_wpac_fh96-384.gif
It probably is seeing that the high resolution GFS isn't accessible past 240 hours.
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Re: 2021 WPAC Season
Iceresistance wrote:April 6th, 18z GFS
May go sub-900 at this rate!
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/gfs_mslpa_wpac_fh96-384.gif
18z bottomed out at 907 mbar, which is its strongest run so far and the first below 910 mbar. I haven’t seen the GFS this consistently aggressive since Hagibis and Kammuri, although only one lived up to the hype, and the other struggled its entire life. The GFS’s nuclear mode model solutions won’t get any more possible until the time frame closes in and other models also go berserk (the Euro went sub-900 for Hagibis, and Kammuri too).
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.