ATL: HARVEY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

TAFB keeping 92L as a low moving WNW through 72 hours...

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 ...

A low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development during the next several days, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. ...

Forecaster Berg

[SoupBone]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 ...

A low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development during the next several days, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. ...

Forecaster Berg

Anyone want to doubt we're entering peak season?

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017 ...

A low pressure system located about 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. This system is moving westward at 15 to 20 mph, and it is expected to cross into the Caribbean Sea on Friday. Upper-level winds are forecast to become a little more conducive for development during the next several days, and interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent. ...

Forecaster Berg

http://i.imgur.com/EdC4c1a.png

Anyone want to doubt we're entering peak season?

NO I agree lol imagine what it will be like in September but 91L has better conditions after 72 hours hopefully it doesn't get too strong and head for the Gulf

[tropicwatch]

Latest WindSat: Looks a little more organized than yesterdays.

[Aric Dunn]

Slowly getting better organized. more convection needs to develop near the center which looks like it might be starting. has a better shot than what they are giving it.

[tropicwatch]

Some convection building with circulation east of the heaviest convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at everything. I would wager this more likely than not at becomig a TC before the islands as the shear is low for the next 36 hours. afterwards the shear increases to a point that would only allow the low level circ to struggle to hold together till the wester carrib where it would have another shot.

[tropicwatch]

Kind of looks like some banding features.

[Gustywind]

Kind of looks like some banding features.

You're right! Evidence of banding features are building in the northern circle and even a bit in the southern too.
System is becoming gradually more organized today and moving straight west towards the EC. Something to keep an eye for us who lived in the Leewards/ NE Leewards. But, as usual let's wait and see. Interresting days ahead.

[Aric Dunn]

I bet chances go up at 2pm

[Gustywind]

I bet chances go up at 2pm

Hi Aric
So, what are your best thoughts with 91L??? Do you think that us in the Leewards could deal with a TS or "just a strong twave" ? Could you give and provides us the most interresting informations on this feature? Looks like IMO that this thing may be close to the EC this weekend even Friday too?
Thanks!
We always appreciate your bright and pertinent anwers as Caribbean friends

[Dougiefresh]

I bet chances go up at 2pm

Hi Aric
So, what are your best thoughts with 91L??? Do you think that us in the Leewards could deal with a TS or "just a strong twave" ? Could you give and provides us the most interresting informations on this feature? Looks like IMO that this thing may be close to the EC this weekend even Friday too?
Thanks!
We always appreciate your bright and pertinent anwers as Caribbean friends

I believe we will have to deal with at least a depression before it passes though our area, upper limit of intensity... I would say maybe a weak TS

[Aric Dunn]

I bet chances go up at 2pm

Hi Aric
So, what are your best thoughts with 91L??? Do you think that us in the Leewards could deal with a TS or "just a strong twave" ? Could you give and provides us the most interresting informations on this feature? Looks like IMO that this thing may be close to the EC this weekend even Friday too?
Thanks!
We always appreciate your bright and pertinent anwers as Caribbean friends

I believe we will have to deal with at least a depression before it passes though our area, upper limit of intensity... I would say maybe a weak TS

Well, it definitely has the potential to become a TS pretty quickly. last SCATT winds showed TS winds mostly due to its forward motion. The upper environment up to the eastern carrib is quite conducive. The only thing that is holding it back is the Sal but its forward speed and increasing convergence can overcome the Sal enough to become a TC. it's already pretty close just needs a little more convection near the center.


I will be back in the states next week. I have been in europe the last 2 weeks.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Hi Aric
So, what are your best thoughts with 91L??? Do you think that us in the Leewards could deal with a TS or "just a strong twave" ? Could you give and provides us the most interresting informations on this feature? Looks like IMO that this thing may be close to the EC this weekend even Friday too?
Thanks!
We always appreciate your bright and pertinent anwers as Caribbean friends

I believe we will have to deal with at least a depression before it passes though our area, upper limit of intensity... I would say maybe a weak TS

Well, it definitely has the potential to become a TS pretty quickly. last SCATT winds showed TS winds mostly due to its forward motion. The upper environment up to the eastern carrib is quite conducive. The only thing that is holding it back is the Sal but its forward speed and increasing convergence can overcome the Sal enough to become a TC. it's already pretty close just needs a little more convection near the center.


I will be back in the states next week. I have been in europe the last 2 weeks.

Give it 24 hours then conditions will be more favorable for developement

[Gustywind]

Hi Aric
So, what are your best thoughts with 91L??? Do you think that us in the Leewards could deal with a TS or "just a strong twave" ? Could you give and provides us the most interresting informations on this feature? Looks like IMO that this thing may be close to the EC this weekend even Friday too?
Thanks!
We always appreciate your bright and pertinent anwers as Caribbean friends

I believe we will have to deal with at least a depression before it passes though our area, upper limit of intensity... I would say maybe a weak TS

Well, it definitely has the potential to become a TS pretty quickly. last SCATT winds showed TS winds mostly due to its forward motion. The upper environment up to the eastern carrib is quite conducive. The only thing that is holding it back is the Sal but its forward speed and increasing convergence can overcome the Sal enough to become a TC. it's already pretty close just needs a little more convection near the center.


I will be back in the states next week. I have been in europe the last 2 weeks.

Thanks a lot Aric i appreciate sincerely this very nice answer! Excellent point of view. So let's see what pan's out from 91L during the next 48 - 72H. Looks like we have to keep our eyes open with this one as a TS should loom at the horizon. Anyway, i will keep your informed of anything happens.
Regards
Gustywind

[Sanibel]

Still has a good naked surface feature but looks like the kind of system that the east Caribbean shreds...

[tailgater]

Seems most of these waves start gaining convection as they approach the Leeward and Windward isles, whether it's from increased shear or SST's or increased moisture are all of the above.
Could be enuf to get Classified.

[Alyono]

started to get a bit concerned about this in the NW Caribbean. Cannot rule out a potential hurricane there

[stormreader]

I bet chances go up at 2pm

Hi Aric
So, what are your best thoughts with 91L??? Do you think that us in the Leewards could deal with a TS or "just a strong twave" ? Could you give and provides us the most interresting informations on this feature? Looks like IMO that this thing may be close to the EC this weekend even Friday too?
Thanks!
We always appreciate your bright and pertinent anwers as Caribbean friends

I believe we will have to deal with at least a depression before it passes though our area, upper limit of intensity... I would say maybe a weak TS

Instead of depression, Im guessing they will upgrade to potential tropical cyclone. Have done that with most systems.