Central Atlantic Tropical Wave (Is Invest 91L)

[toad strangler]

That's better. It looked incomplete without the X.

lol that's the problem I had too

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like a couple of models develop this in a few days. Could get interesting

[cycloneye]

A westward-moving tropical wave located over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic, a couple of hundred miles east of the Cabo Verde
Islands, continues to produce disorganized shower activity.
Although environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive
for development during the next couple of days, they are forecast
to gradually become more favorable over the weekend and into early
next week when the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a couple of models develop this in a few days. Could get interesting

This should be the last with a chance to make it all the way....already a healthy trough next week in the West which I will be experiencing up close and personal in the mountains.

[toad strangler]

Looks like a couple of models develop this in a few days. Could get interesting

This should be the last with a chance to make it all the way....already a healthy trough next week in the West which I will be experiencing up close and personal in the mountains.

Last chance?

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a couple of models develop this in a few days. Could get interesting

This should be the last with a chance to make it all the way....already a healthy trough next week in the West which I will be experiencing up close and personal in the mountains.

Last chance?

yes, I believe this is the last of the cape verde systems to make it all the way across, maybe the islands

[sma10]

This should be the last with a chance to make it all the way....already a healthy trough next week in the West which I will be experiencing up close and personal in the mountains.

Last chance?

yes, I believe this is the last of the cape verde systems to make it all the way across, maybe the islands

This is highly suspect. Especially with the tendency for late development, I think we are closer to the middle than the end.

[toad strangler]

Last chance?

yes, I believe this is the last of the cape verde systems to make it all the way across, maybe the islands

This is highly suspect. Especially with the tendency for late development, I think we are closer to the middle than the end.

Agree. CV season just got started and long range 500mb maps(which can be highly suspect themselves) say it's a bridge too far as well. If it was one month from now I'd believe it much more.

[Blown Away]

00z EURO shows some development.

[USTropics]

Here is a break down for each month for CV season:

August


September


October


Very active wave train:

[sma10]

It would really be awesome if the GFS and EURO were sharp on genesis this year. But they have been a 0/10 - terrible.

It seems ridiculous, but the evidence is there that ICON and CMC has been more dependable in sniffing out development this season.

[Jr0d]

This should be the last with a chance to make it all the way....already a healthy trough next week in the West which I will be experiencing up close and personal in the mountains.

Last chance?

yes, I believe this is the last of the cape verde systems to make it all the way across, maybe the islands

It is not even September yet...i think it is a bit premature to say after one trough being forecast that the Cape Verde long trackers season is over.

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS doesn’t do anything with this wave until it’s south of Florida at 80°W. Don’t know why the NHC gave it a yellow lemon? Maybe they’re beginning to doubt the global models like we are?

[Jr0d]

The 12z GFS doesn’t do anything with this wave until it’s south of Florida at 80°W. Don’t know why the NHC gave it a yellow lemon? Maybe they’re beginning to doubt the global models like we are?

Both the GFS and EURO take it near Florida as a wave....while they have failed at detecting genesis and intensity, the Euro has done decent track wise. Something we may need to watch next week.

[otowntiger]

Here is what the 18Z Aug 19th GFS run showed for today’s forecast (7 days out):

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

Yeah that set up could be problematic, but of note is that there are no systems shown to worry about. So the set up isn't really problematic if there are no storms to be steered by it. Of course I know its all subject to change and there could be some waves to watch, but by the same token the set up could be different as well with the usual troughs and retreating ridge allowing for the proverbial 'escape hatch'.

[Cpv17]

Here is what the 18Z Aug 19th GFS run showed for today’s forecast (7 days out):

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

Yeah that set up could be problematic, but of note is that there are no systems shown to worry about. So the set up isn't really problematic if there are no storms to be steered by it. Of course I know its all subject to change and there could be some waves to watch, but by the same token the set up could be different as well with the usual troughs and retreating ridge allowing for the proverbial 'escape hatch'.

But do you really think there will be no systems to watch going into the heart of the season? Doubtful. Have you seen the CMC, UKMET, and ICON who have blown away the GFS/Euro at detecting genesis this year?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Here is what the 18Z Aug 19th GFS run showed for today’s forecast (7 days out):

https://i.postimg.cc/fbzS3Qjx/gfs-z850-vort-atl-26.png

Yeah that set up could be problematic, but of note is that there are no systems shown to worry about. So the set up isn't really problematic if there are no storms to be steered by it. Of course I know its all subject to change and there could be some waves to watch, but by the same token the set up could be different as well with the usual troughs and retreating ridge allowing for the proverbial 'escape hatch'.

you missed the point of the post. that picture he posted was the august 19th gfs forecast for the day laura made landfall. notice how there's not a hint of a storm just 7 days out.

this is why you do not take models for gospel when it comes to TC genesis.

[SFLcane]

[sma10]

So we just saw two storms in the Gulf. Is it possible next week we'll see a storm in the Caribbean and NE Leewards simultaneously?

I would think NO ... but ... ?

[SconnieCane]

With that setup verbatim it probably misses the Leewards to the north and tries to go OTS, but that ridging over the Northeast/Atlantic Canada could be problematic.