ATL: DORIAN - Models

[caneseddy]

:uarrow:

Essentially the exact same landfall point as yesterday's 12z run, but stronger.

Looks like landfall is south of the 00z run. WNW approach over the 48 hours prior to landfall, whereas 00z was very NW.

Yep..which means that the models are ever so slowly picking up on a stronger ridge. The models are starting to show more of a bend west upon landfall rather than the straight NW angle from yesterday. South Florida definitely not out of the woods yet.

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[USTropics]

12z GFS/ECMWF/CMC at 120 hours:

[chris_fit]

EURO much faster on this run...

here is trend of last 4 0/12z runs

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/1166417157137342470

[AdamFirst]

I'd say the curve back to the west is definitive throughout all of the model suites. Let's just see how far north it gets first

[Frank P]

Don’t like the trend of models somehow pushing
Dorian into the GOM in some form or manner.

Waiting to see where the Euro ends up, maybe Gulf maybe not

Euro extreme NE GOM... amazing

[psyclone]

That Euro run is pretty similar to 2004 Frances in terms of track through Florida and clipping the NE Gulf

[sma10]

Feel free to correct me, but I sense the GFS and Euro are starting to trend slightly towards Uk solution. The first couple or so days moving further East (avoiding Hispaniola for the most part), then on days 3-5 a more sharper turn to more W/WNW as opposed to NW. Not sure if it will transpire exactly as trending, but a bad trend, imo

It's fair to say the UKMET has also been gradually shifting North, and it along with the other globals are slowly forming a consensus.... that still has a lot of uncertainty. It does bear repeating though, that the UKMET was the first model, from the very onset, to consistently show Dorian missing Hispaniola to the East and North. It remains the main model I'm looking at this week. UKMET has been the rightmost model run to run. And Dorian is consistently moving right of the forecast track. 2+2=4

Fair enough. But tbh, when I look at 4-5 days forecasts I don't concentrate all that much on landing points. While it's true that the Uk has moved from Key West to around Jupiter - the main idea has been the same: a very strong E-W oriented ridge that straightens out its vector to around 270. If it verifies it's impossible to tell at this point who gets it. Is it 25N, 26N, 27N? No way to know yet, but my sense is IF THIS VERIFIES, it's the lower third of the peninsula.

[chris_fit]

[SoupBone]

So this isn't a good so far, with that bend back into the GoM. Is that ridging going to be more stout than it was on previous runs?

[p1nheadlarry]

Euro Day 5

https://i.imgur.com/xV0SsAd.png

Any reason you chose the OW parameter to plot?

[Frank P]

For the record, when I post a like, it’s not for the actual result of the data, it is for the effort the poster goes through to collect the data.. another way of saying thanks for the effort... I don’t post likes that show a city getting destroyed by a cane, only to emphasize to the poster job well down... I’m sure most of you feel the say way...

[TheProfessor]

12z Euro would be very bad for the Northern Gulf, which has seen a lot of rain the last few weeks. Not to mention impacting areas effected by Michael last year.

[SunnyThoughts]

Really not interested in a visit from you Dorian, got a lot to do next week here in Pensacola.

[stormlover2013]

like I said earlier we have no trend right now.

[SunnyThoughts]

12z Euro would be very bad for the Northern Gulf, which has seen a lot of rain the last few weeks. Not to mention impacting areas effected by Michael last year.

So true, Panama City can't take anything like this right now. There are still blue tarps around the area and lots of construction going on trying to rebuild.

[TheProfessor]

like I said earlier we have no trend right now.

There's definitely been a trend in the short term for Dorian to move east of Hispaniola instead of directly over it.

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO landfall Miss/Ala state line as TS Dorian 1000mb, next Wednesday morning.

[toad strangler]

12z EURO landfall Miss/Ala state line as TS Dorian 1000mb, next Wednesday morning.

Looks more like AL/FL line to me

[toad strangler]

Euro has no ideas about slowing down and flooding. zoom zoom zoom!