2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
What's going on in GOM just east of Brownsville today (July 14th)? I see slight rotation on radar.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
AtlanticWind wrote:This thread is extremely quiet as the models show nothing out to day 16
Although the models are not very good on genesis beyond 5 or 6 days, I dont
expect much until maybe the last week of July.
I dont expect much until mid August...kind of like a 'normal' season.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Texoz wrote:What's going on in GOM just east of Brownsville today (July 14th)? I see slight rotation on radar.
It seem there was a brief rotation occurring , NAM and HRR both showed it in their runs with 30-35 knot winds.
Added -
I have found a ship was in the area and had a wind shift and 31 knots winds.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SrKbXD7.gif
06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...
I don't think anyone anticipated how busy the East Pacific would be this year. It doesn't mean the Atlantic can't have a busy year of course.-ENSO, coolish PDO, etc no reason for the EPAC to be this active
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SrKbXD7.gif
06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...
I don't think anyone anticipated how busy the East Pacific would be this year. It doesn't mean the Atlantic can't have a busy year of course.-ENSO, coolish PDO, etc no reason for the EPAC to be this active
Agreed; I genuinely think that this may just be a very front-loaded thing that we're seeing here; for it to continue like this even into ASO (and with stronger trades expected to return and maintain our La Nina baseline), continuous activity like this simply defies the fundamental reason why La Ninas are unfavorable for EPAC activity
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SrKbXD7.gif
06z GFS... Crazy, develops every low into a hurricane, one after another...
Reminds me of the GFS antics last year
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
While we are in an -ENSO and and a -PDO, that part of the epac has some large areas of anomalous warmth, which could be contributing to the activity we are seeing.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
0Z GFS looks pretty interesting
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Category5Kaiju wrote:0Z GFS looks pretty interesting
What I found interesting was that the ridging is still very strong, the small system is barely able to dodge SA.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
EPS is clean except for that one rogue member
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Nothing at 06z GFS.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Looks like the 6z GFS is much more realistic and drops the trio of intense hurricanes after Estelle lol. Nothing considerable in the WPAC or Atlantic though either it seems
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Crickets on the models is so typical for the July dead zone. Hopefully we get another 2-4 weeks of tranquility. August is approaching and we know legit quality storms will be on the docket
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
psyclone wrote:Crickets on the models is so typical for the July dead zone. Hopefully we get another 2-4 weeks of tranquility. August is approaching and we know legit quality storms will be on the docket
Though it does have a large wave come off at the end of the month, makes me think between August 1 and August 10 thing might start going into prime time but until then enjoy the quiet
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Some activity at long range popping up on ensembles
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
This is when we used to get “season cancelled “ posts in the old days but now we know better. It will be off to the races soon.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
Yep, season is definitely cancelled in both the Atlantic and West Pacific. I doubt we'll see another named storm in either. My plans, now, are to take most of September off and go on a long vacation. Will be great to go through the peak of hurricane and typhoon season so quietly.
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
wxman57 wrote:Yep, season is definitely cancelled in both the Atlantic and West Pacific. I doubt we'll see another named storm in either. My plans, now, are to take most of September off and go on a long vacation. Will be great to go through the peak of hurricane and typhoon season so quietly.
Yup when does the first 2023 forecast come out lol maybe no
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Re: 2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)
SteveM wrote:While we are in an -ENSO and and a -PDO, that part of the epac has some large areas of anomalous warmth, which could be contributing to the activity we are seeing.
After a couple of hurricanes go over the same area you're going to get upwelling so I find it hard to believe there will be a train of storms like that
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