Evidence of Ridge Building North of Ivan
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Evidence of Ridge Building North of Ivan
The latest close-up water vapor loops are indicating the ridge forecast to build north of Ivan is indeed doing this as we speak. Pay attention to the upper level clouds that are just south of Louisiana. Early in the loop they are moving generally NW-SE behind the departing trough. They are now moving S and even to the SW/WSW. The outflow from Ivan has also expanded towards the NW, and this appears to indicate (to me) that the ridge is now forming north of Ivan as forecast by numerous models. Look for the outflow to sort of flatten as it approaches this strengthening ridge. Some will still be pulled east-NE but the northwestern portions will be pulled further to the west. The implications of this are still unknown at this time, but to me it implies a continued NW track until the ridge is eroded by the incoming Rocky Mtn trough. In that case, we may see a shift west in the track w/i the next 12-24 hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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- Cape Verde
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- crazycajuncane
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Is the expanding convection to the SW connected to your viewpoint as well?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_08/anis.html
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_08/anis.html
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- Professional-Met
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Model guidance is almost unanimous on a strike near the MS/AL border. These are some very fine details Ivan is working w/ here, so don't be surprised if the final landfall is anywhere from N.O. to Ft. Walton Beach.
Another piece of evidence for a ridge building north of Ivan would be a slowing of the forward motion - I don't see this yet. Stay tuned...
Another piece of evidence for a ridge building north of Ivan would be a slowing of the forward motion - I don't see this yet. Stay tuned...
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Sanibel wrote:You should blend a normal weak recurve with a potential weak ridge influence. If this synoptic is accurate just east of New Orleans would resolve...
Ivan now stable at 931 and 140mph!
Sanibel we have crossed paths several times on these boards and I respect you thougths and excuse my cluttered mine but are you saying in the above statement that the MS is the likely target due to the weakness in the ridge?
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wlfpack81 wrote:FYI concerning models the NOGAPS is still pointing towards a NO landfall. Been that way for the past few model runs now. It may be the far w-ern outlier but at least it's been consistent over the last day or so.
Sounds like something George W. would say - "might be wrong, but I've been consitent" lol
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wlfpack81 wrote:FYI concerning models the NOGAPS is still pointing towards a NO landfall. Been that way for the past few model runs now. It may be the far w-ern outlier but at least it's been consistent over the last day or so.
No it doesn't...it shows MS/AL border like most other models now.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif
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