Evidence of Ridge Building North of Ivan

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PurdueWx80
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Evidence of Ridge Building North of Ivan

#1 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:12 pm

The latest close-up water vapor loops are indicating the ridge forecast to build north of Ivan is indeed doing this as we speak. Pay attention to the upper level clouds that are just south of Louisiana. Early in the loop they are moving generally NW-SE behind the departing trough. They are now moving S and even to the SW/WSW. The outflow from Ivan has also expanded towards the NW, and this appears to indicate (to me) that the ridge is now forming north of Ivan as forecast by numerous models. Look for the outflow to sort of flatten as it approaches this strengthening ridge. Some will still be pulled east-NE but the northwestern portions will be pulled further to the west. The implications of this are still unknown at this time, but to me it implies a continued NW track until the ridge is eroded by the incoming Rocky Mtn trough. In that case, we may see a shift west in the track w/i the next 12-24 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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#2 Postby Cape Verde » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:15 pm

This further suggests that getting the heck out of New Orleans would be a prudent action.
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#3 Postby crazycajuncane » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:16 pm

You aren't joking. This is just wild. Someone has got to know something.

We need more frequent updates. Thanks for the info.
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#4 Postby wlfpack81 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:16 pm

Good analysis Purdue. I'm really beginning to get worried again about NO. Even if the storm doesn't shift all the west to them I'm worried that a n-ly to nw-ly wind would still cause some flooding due to Lake Pontchartrain.
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#5 Postby Ixolib » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:17 pm

Is the expanding convection to the SW connected to your viewpoint as well?

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_08/anis.html
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#6 Postby canegrl04 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:19 pm

Ivan will be one hurricane N.O will never forget if he heads there. I'm beginning to believe we're looking at a strong cat 4 landing :eek:
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#7 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:20 pm

You should blend a normal weak recurve with a potential weak ridge influence. If this synoptic is accurate just east of New Orleans would resolve...

Ivan now stable at 931 and 140mph!
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#8 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:24 pm

Should this possibly force Ivan to pick up speed as well? How far west are we talking now? :?:
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#9 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:26 pm

Model guidance is almost unanimous on a strike near the MS/AL border. These are some very fine details Ivan is working w/ here, so don't be surprised if the final landfall is anywhere from N.O. to Ft. Walton Beach.

Another piece of evidence for a ridge building north of Ivan would be a slowing of the forward motion - I don't see this yet. Stay tuned...
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#10 Postby Innotech » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:26 pm

A lot of dry air in front of Ivan too. I hope it does a Lili and poofs before landfall.
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#11 Postby rtd2 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:26 pm

Sanibel wrote:You should blend a normal weak recurve with a potential weak ridge influence. If this synoptic is accurate just east of New Orleans would resolve...

Ivan now stable at 931 and 140mph!






Sanibel we have crossed paths several times on these boards and I respect you thougths and excuse my cluttered mine but are you saying in the above statement that the MS is the likely target due to the weakness in the ridge?
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#12 Postby golter » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:27 pm

I would buy into that except for two reasons.
1. Ivan has picked up a little forward speed.
2. Its still heading NNW, that heading would have to hold for the entire trek for a NOLA hit.
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#13 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:28 pm

Lili didn't poof completely. Here in Vermilion Parish we had some very strong winds and quite a bit of damage. She let her steam out on us that's for sure.
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#14 Postby wlfpack81 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:28 pm

FYI concerning models the NOGAPS is still pointing towards a NO landfall. Been that way for the past few model runs now. It may be the far w-ern outlier but at least it's been consistent over the last day or so.
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#15 Postby FritzPaul » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:35 pm

Lili "poofed" because of cooler SST's since it was the beginning of October.
Last edited by FritzPaul on Tue Sep 14, 2004 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#16 Postby golter » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:37 pm

wlfpack81 wrote:FYI concerning models the NOGAPS is still pointing towards a NO landfall. Been that way for the past few model runs now. It may be the far w-ern outlier but at least it's been consistent over the last day or so.



Sounds like something George W. would say - "might be wrong, but I've been consitent" lol
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#17 Postby LaBreeze » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:39 pm

Lili came in as a Cat. 2 and struck in early October (October 3rd).
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#18 Postby PurdueWx80 » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:39 pm

wlfpack81 wrote:FYI concerning models the NOGAPS is still pointing towards a NO landfall. Been that way for the past few model runs now. It may be the far w-ern outlier but at least it's been consistent over the last day or so.


No it doesn't...it shows MS/AL border like most other models now.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... .namer.gif
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#19 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:49 pm

Yes rtd2: Pascagoula.


The extrap will verify only if a mildly-building ridge offsets poleward. (Poleward being the more likely)
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#20 Postby veaux » Tue Sep 14, 2004 2:53 pm

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