cycloneye wrote: Kingarabian wrote: cycloneye wrote:
Quite a ride thru all the things they look at to determine how is ENSO doing and in this ENSO Blog
,they explain about the three months of ONI. Is a great read.
I have reservations with this months blog. There were about 4 or 5 WWB's near the dateline from fall and into late February. They were all strong and expansive. The effects were reflected on the subsurface and then onto the surface. Which is how 5 seasons ended up above +0.5C. Wouldn't that indicate an El Nino atmosphere? WWB's are a phenomenon and don't occur naturally. The SOI has its uses but they put a lot of weight on it despite how noisy it can be during the winter months.
You think El Niño should have been declared with this May update?
I think the past 5 months should be closely examined and it should be considered. Along with the WWB's I pointed out, NCAR analysis will show a low pressure bias situated over the dateline which is also consistent with El Nino.