ENSO Updates

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Kingarabian
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Re: CPC May update: Neutral at 65% thru Summer / La Niña at 38% by ASO / El Niño at 10%

#11521 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 14, 2020 5:04 pm

USTropics wrote:Here are some filters for top 12 ACE value years of EPAC vs. ATL ACE along with ONI values for 3 trimonthly averages of peak season months:
https://i.imgur.com/RVFcw9f.png

I've done the same for top 12 ACE values years of ATL vs. EPAC:
https://i.imgur.com/fbMhhgk.png

Data:
https://i.imgur.com/V5u24P4.png


With the exception of 1978 and 1984, it's easy to see how the years with cool-neutral or weak La Nina are almost always favored to be active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC ENSO Blog=Road trip

#11522 Postby Kingarabian » Thu May 14, 2020 5:25 pm

cycloneye wrote:Quite a ride thru all the things they look at to determine how is ENSO doing and in this ENSO Blog ,they explain about the three months of ONI. Is a great read.

I have reservations with this months blog. There were about 4 or 5 WWB's near the dateline from fall and into late February. They were all strong and expansive. The effects were reflected on the subsurface and then onto the surface. Which is how 5 seasons ended up above +0.5C. Wouldn't that indicate an El Nino atmosphere? WWB's are a phenomenon and don't occur naturally. The SOI has its uses but they put a lot of weight on it despite how noisy it can be during the winter months.
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC ENSO Blog=Road trip

#11523 Postby cycloneye » Thu May 14, 2020 7:49 pm

Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Quite a ride thru all the things they look at to determine how is ENSO doing and in this ENSO Blog ,they explain about the three months of ONI. Is a great read.

I have reservations with this months blog. There were about 4 or 5 WWB's near the dateline from fall and into late February. They were all strong and expansive. The effects were reflected on the subsurface and then onto the surface. Which is how 5 seasons ended up above +0.5C. Wouldn't that indicate an El Nino atmosphere? WWB's are a phenomenon and don't occur naturally. The SOI has its uses but they put a lot of weight on it despite how noisy it can be during the winter months.


You think El Niño should have been declared with this May update?
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Re: ENSO Updates: CPC ENSO Blog=Road trip

#11524 Postby Kingarabian » Fri May 15, 2020 4:29 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
cycloneye wrote:Quite a ride thru all the things they look at to determine how is ENSO doing and in this ENSO Blog ,they explain about the three months of ONI. Is a great read.

I have reservations with this months blog. There were about 4 or 5 WWB's near the dateline from fall and into late February. They were all strong and expansive. The effects were reflected on the subsurface and then onto the surface. Which is how 5 seasons ended up above +0.5C. Wouldn't that indicate an El Nino atmosphere? WWB's are a phenomenon and don't occur naturally. The SOI has its uses but they put a lot of weight on it despite how noisy it can be during the winter months.


You think El Niño should have been declared with this May update?

I think the past 5 months should be closely examined and it should be considered. Along with the WWB's I pointed out, NCAR analysis will show a low pressure bias situated over the dateline which is also consistent with El Nino.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11525 Postby StruThiO » Fri May 15, 2020 7:14 pm

at this point probably less of a question of will 3.4 cool enough for the oceanic component of a la nina to be present - and more of will the atmosphere couple?

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Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11526 Postby cycloneye » Fri May 15, 2020 8:08 pm

Is really cooling now in all the areas.

Image

Image

Image

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11527 Postby Kingarabian » Sat May 16, 2020 12:33 am

An exceptional trade burst occuring over the WP.

Image
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11528 Postby cycloneye » Sat May 16, 2020 5:20 am

Kingarabian wrote:An exceptional trade burst occuring over the WP.

https://i.imgur.com/Ufe4W9l.png


Wow,that is an impressive burst.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11529 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 18, 2020 12:11 am

Thinking 0.0C or -0.1C at the weekly update
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11530 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 18, 2020 6:03 am

-0.2C at update later this morning.

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11531 Postby NDG » Mon May 18, 2020 6:53 am

:uarrow: Actually this morning's update will be all the way down to -0.3C

Nino 1+2 remains at +0.2C
Nino 3 down to -0.1C
Nino 3.4 down to -0.3C
Nino 4 remains at +0.3C
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.3C

#11532 Postby cycloneye » Mon May 18, 2020 8:20 am

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.3C

#11533 Postby StruThiO » Mon May 18, 2020 10:41 am

here come the easterlies again

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.3C

#11534 Postby WeatherEmperor » Mon May 18, 2020 10:42 am

What are the chances we get to La Nina for the ASO peak season??


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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.3C

#11535 Postby StruThiO » Mon May 18, 2020 12:06 pm

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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.3C

#11536 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon May 18, 2020 12:18 pm

This recent cooling will likely be enough to push MAM below the El Nino threshold. AMJ/MJJ will likely be neutral. There might be a shot at Nina by JJA if cooling continues.
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Re: ENSO: CPC Weekly update: Niño 3.4 down to -0.3C

#11537 Postby Kingarabian » Tue May 19, 2020 5:04 am

The present trade burst over the WP is pretty potent and will pile up warm waters near the IPWP and the MC. Simply put, warmer waters means greater likelihood that convection persists in that region and as a result we'll see rising motion reflected. So I think going into July the atmosphere will eventually resemble a La Nina.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11538 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 19, 2020 9:47 am

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Re: ENSO Updates

#11539 Postby toad strangler » Tue May 19, 2020 10:15 am



That's an impressive stripe of neg anomalies showing in all 4 ENSO quadrants at prime time of the 'cane season. :eek:
NOAA outlook just two days away. Should be interesting.
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Re: ENSO Updates

#11540 Postby cycloneye » Tue May 19, 2020 10:51 am

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