Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#301 Postby Ntxw » Mon Dec 06, 2021 3:44 pm

Cerlin wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?


It seems like that the GFS strongly picks up something at the end of the run, then it seems like it drops it out by the time it gets closer.

And I think that’s a sign of the GFS overestimating the strength of events (PV, troughs, moisture, etc.) rather than being a good indicator


I can actually believe this though. For a couple of reasons. The stratosphere actually isn't that hard to forecast far out, there aren't too many moving parts like the troposphere, it's just winds and temperature so reliably is actually quite good even long term. Secondly, the GFS never really predicted major SSW, as I noted before in prior post it was just shifting and moving the PV around which is normal and wasn't indicative of a warming event yet. User interpretation is the flaw there. But the recent warming showing from East Asia and the Pacific has some backing down the road.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#302 Postby Cerlin » Mon Dec 06, 2021 4:13 pm

Ntxw wrote:
Cerlin wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
It seems like that the GFS strongly picks up something at the end of the run, then it seems like it drops it out by the time it gets closer.

And I think that’s a sign of the GFS overestimating the strength of events (PV, troughs, moisture, etc.) rather than being a good indicator


I can actually believe this though. For a couple of reasons. The stratosphere actually isn't that hard to forecast far out, there aren't too many moving parts like the troposphere, it's just winds and temperature so reliably is actually quite good even long term. Secondly, the GFS never really predicted major SSW, as I noted before in prior post it was just shifting and moving the PV around which is normal and wasn't indicative of a warming event yet. User interpretation is the flaw there. But the recent warming showing from East Asia and the Pacific has some backing down the road.

I think that’s a fair assessment. I probably should’ve narrowed the GFS’s inaccuracies to a mishandling of tropospheric events and not stratospheric events.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#303 Postby harp » Mon Dec 06, 2021 8:15 pm

Wow, almost 4 hours and no posts! Lol! Unusual for this forum!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#304 Postby Golf7270 » Mon Dec 06, 2021 9:57 pm

Hello everyone. I'm from Arkansas. I was a previous poster. Another winter is upon us. I will give you my two cents. If the mjo can make it past the standing wave, we may be ok moving forward. Definitely dont want it in 4-6 in winter. Also, we had brutal cold in February. I received 11-12 inches of snow with two events. Before that, it was a mini ice storm, but mainly sleet here. Great period of weather. SSW events can sometimes make a big difference. We got lucky :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#305 Postby Haris » Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:03 pm

Image

:flag:
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#306 Postby HockeyTx82 » Mon Dec 06, 2021 10:09 pm



Ummm what? My wife looked over my shoulder and was like what was that? I think my verbal expression caught her ear.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#307 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Dec 07, 2021 12:07 am

GEFS & GFS is showing strong consistency of a unstable PV starting around next week
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#308 Postby Cerlin » Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:47 am

Surely isn’t Texas, but it is nice to see some light snow returns in parts of Kansas this morning. Winter might not be here like we want it but it is indeed here!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#309 Postby vbhoutex » Tue Dec 07, 2021 3:31 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:


Ummm what? My wife looked over my shoulder and was like what was that? I think my verbal expression caught her ear.

Wow!! We can always hope!! If these runs stay consistent I will start watching it closer for variations that might favor SE TX/Houston area snowfall event.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#310 Postby Quixotic » Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:06 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#311 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Dec 07, 2021 5:17 pm



If the CFS shows it when it gets in range I’m all in :lol:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#312 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:44 pm

Interestingly our records in the next week that are threatened were set just last year. The record last week was from 2012 when it snowed on Christmas

Maybe that's a good sign :lol:

All the mets up here say winter is coming eventually also
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#313 Postby harp » Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:56 pm

Brent wrote:Interestingly our records in the next week that are threatened were set just last year. The record last week was from 2012 when it snowed on Christmas

Maybe that's a good sign :lol:

All the mets up here say winter is coming eventually also
So does JB.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#314 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 07, 2021 9:58 pm

harp wrote:
Brent wrote:Interestingly our records in the next week that are threatened were set just last year. The record last week was from 2012 when it snowed on Christmas

Maybe that's a good sign :lol:

All the mets up here say winter is coming eventually also
So does JB.


Not that I expect a repeat of February but it does show you that the pattern can flip fast
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#315 Postby Quixotic » Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:19 pm

Still have a good feeling about this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#316 Postby Ntxw » Tue Dec 07, 2021 10:23 pm

I agree there is still decent chance of a good winter, it's early.

Just waiting to see if the MJO can change the EPO. The AO also needs to flip. Doesn't matter if it's El Nino or La Nina or La Nada without a consistent winter long -AO then you'd get the warm looks for any ENSO event. The same for the EPO.

Got to get through the stretch of national warmth and see where things head after that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#317 Postby Golf7270 » Tue Dec 07, 2021 11:49 pm

Ntxw wrote:I agree there is still decent chance of a good winter, it's early.

Just waiting to see if the MJO can change the EPO. The AO also needs to flip. Doesn't matter if it's El Nino or La Nina or La Nada without a consistent winter long -AO then you'd get the warm looks for any ENSO event. The same for the EPO.

Got to get through the stretch of national warmth and see where things head after that.


Definitely going to be warm for a while. Need alot of things to flip the pattern for cold. HLB would be nice to see and I guess that depends on mjo progression among other things.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#318 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Dec 08, 2021 7:21 am

This Stratwarm is in the perfect place to cause a Cold Wave at around Christmas week & into New Years if does verify. :eek:

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Uh-Oh.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

Also many Oklahoma Supercells

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#319 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 08, 2021 8:59 am

Iceresistance wrote:This Stratwarm is in the perfect place to cause a Cold Wave at around Christmas week & into New Years if does verify. :eek:

https://s10.gifyu.com/imag%20es/Uh-Oh.png
https://s10.gifyu.com/imag%20es/Uh-Oh.png


384 hours is a very long time out.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#320 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Dec 08, 2021 9:10 am

The The O low, which i cant spell, is expected to setup in Eastern Russia soon. This will be great for pumping heat into the Arctic/causing chaos.
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