Cerlin wrote:Iceresistance wrote:wxman57 wrote:
If the GFS can't get the forecast right 5 days from now, why would it be correct on the day 16 panel?
It seems like that the GFS strongly picks up something at the end of the run, then it seems like it drops it out by the time it gets closer.
And I think that’s a sign of the GFS overestimating the strength of events (PV, troughs, moisture, etc.) rather than being a good indicator
I can actually believe this though. For a couple of reasons. The stratosphere actually isn't that hard to forecast far out, there aren't too many moving parts like the troposphere, it's just winds and temperature so reliably is actually quite good even long term. Secondly, the GFS never really predicted major SSW, as I noted before in prior post it was just shifting and moving the PV around which is normal and wasn't indicative of a warming event yet. User interpretation is the flaw there. But the recent warming showing from East Asia and the Pacific has some backing down the road.