What's next
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
What's next
After a very exciting event, I had 30+ mph winds for 18 hours and that had not happened since the great March storm of 1993. As I discussed in early November on my former BB of choice, there will be nor return to consistenly below normal temps for DC area specifically and mid atlantic in general and no establishment of trough in the east by neither 11/12 nor 11/20. I look for temps to average 3-5 degrees below normal thru Sunday, then 3-5 above thru mid week, below a bit into about next Friday and then a period of 60's appears on tap for DC area from about 11/21-11/28 when at such time we still foresee one of the few coastal storms of the season in 11/29-12/2 time frame ushering in a shot of cold and snowy weather but transient in nature. These cold shots will come in from time to time, this is not a repeat of 2001-2002 but we do not see the persistent cold until January for KA and late Jan thur Feb for me.
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W53 - although we are not yet into the time period from 11/20 through 11/30, I am willing to admit that it now appears as though my thinking was completely wrong for this period. I was believing JB and several others who were calling for temps in the mid-Atlantic and Northeast to be colder than normal during that 11 day period, while you were saying that temps would be warmer than normal. I have seen the error of my ways, and I now agree that at least through 11/28 - it does look to be warmer than normal in the mid-Atlantic and the Northeast. And I also agree with your assertion that there will be several says of cold following the warm period - but it will not last long. Perhaps there will be a longer lasting cold beginning in mid-December.
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Stormsfury
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donsutherland1
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Re: What's next
Weather53,
With regard to the rest of November, I am in general agreement with your ideas for Washington, DC. As noted in my <b>November 11 discussion</b> and <b>brief update</b> I anticipate a shot of colder readings for 11/19-21 but those should be replaced by above-to-much above normal warmth afterward. It is possible that I might be overdone concerning the magnitude of the cold in that timeframe, but given recent model performance of underestimating the cold, I'll hold on those numbers for now.
Cold may again return beginning 11/27-29, possibly following an important storm and there is some ensemble support for this idea. However, the likely return of the Pacific Jet around that timeframe and the SOI seem to suggest that the likelihood that this will be a transient shot of cold is increasing.
So far, from the bigger picture, KA's and your seasonal outlooks are continuing to look very good.
The comparison of yesterday's wind event to 1993 is also interesting...
With regard to the rest of November, I am in general agreement with your ideas for Washington, DC. As noted in my <b>November 11 discussion</b> and <b>brief update</b> I anticipate a shot of colder readings for 11/19-21 but those should be replaced by above-to-much above normal warmth afterward. It is possible that I might be overdone concerning the magnitude of the cold in that timeframe, but given recent model performance of underestimating the cold, I'll hold on those numbers for now.
Cold may again return beginning 11/27-29, possibly following an important storm and there is some ensemble support for this idea. However, the likely return of the Pacific Jet around that timeframe and the SOI seem to suggest that the likelihood that this will be a transient shot of cold is increasing.
So far, from the bigger picture, KA's and your seasonal outlooks are continuing to look very good.
The comparison of yesterday's wind event to 1993 is also interesting...
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Stormsfury
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- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Cold may again return beginning 11/27-29, possibly following an important storm and there is some ensemble support for this idea. However, the likely return of the Pacific Jet around that timeframe and the SOI seem to suggest that the likelihood that this will be a transient shot of cold is increasing.
Looking at the latest data that I could find ... I agree with this 100% ...
It's been very interesting how the warmth returns are being handled quite well but the cold shots are being underestimated by the models, and to some extent, the GFS ... heck, it dropped to 33º in CHS when most of the guidance suggested only 38º ... I dropped to 31º (which, I hate to say this, but I laughed off the TWC forecast for Summerville, and it turned out that this verifies to a T.)
SF
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Well we had the chilly-normal weekend, then mild-very mild now a one day normal shot and then a lot of 60's right through Thanksgiving, early week sotrm could be a one day cool down but until the referenced 11/29-12/2 time frame I do not see a cold coastal strom opportuntiy and even after that it is back to mild again.
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