USA's winter 2004-05 Forecast IS OUT!

[wxguy25]

Hi, very thorough and detailed forecast you have there. I guess my one question, in looking at the maps, I notice for Louisiana you have below-normal temps and average precipitation.

The reason I'm asking is we're just getting done with what has been billed as the warmest October on record here.

Just exactly what does the winter forecast mean for Louisiana, particularly the southern part of the state?

The warm OCT is really not important in relationship to the outcome of the winter. Read my thread in the US weather watch forum for more on that.

for Southern LA I expect below normal temps and above average rainfall.

[wxguy25]

Very nice forecast. If you compare this one to Don's...

1. Your predicting more cold (-4)
2. More snow (+175%)

DC still seems to be the odd man out in the snow department...
Don= 12-17
USA= 15-25
USA prediction falls in the average zone for DC...

I certainly see this as a snowy year in DC compared to last year and should be 25+ IMO... In addition, the North-west suburbs of DC, including IAD, Loudoun, Clarke, Frederick counties, and Martinsburg, WV, Hagerstown, MD, the I-81 corridor could easily see 36-40+ this winter.

I went pretty conservative in the I-95 corridor, and gave larger ranges due to the uncertainty. But like I said, it may only take one system to bring DCA up to the 25” march and cause me to bust—and that’s the foremost concern here. This is one of the years where IMO its MUCH…MUCH…MUCH more likely that DCA will exceed or for that matter far exceed the predicted totals vs. a winter where its more likely a forecast will bust too low for that part of the I-95 corridor. Those totals will be refined when I Update the winter forecast for FEB-MAR in early January.

I have a 10” spread for DCA instead of only a 5” spread for BWI where the certainty in above normal snowfall is much clearer, once into PHL its pretty much a given for above normal snow.

[wxguy25]

Great job and wonderful explanation as always.

Thanks, Don.

[thstorm87]

I dont know if I would go as far as saying its a giving, but I hope your right saying that philly will have above normal snowfall this winter. Last year we were close to normal, but it seemed like we missed the worst of every storm.

[wxguy25]

I dont know if I would go as far as saying its a giving, but I hope your right saying that philly will have above normal snowfall this winter. Last year we were close to normal, but it seemed like we missed the worst of every storm.

NOTHING is ever a given in this business, however every one of my analog years had at least somewhat above normal snowfall. Some of the memorable winters which showed up on the list had significantly above average snowfall.

[CaptinCrunch]

I dont know if I would go as far as saying its a giving, but I hope your right saying that philly will have above normal snowfall this winter. Last year we were close to normal, but it seemed like we missed the worst of every storm.

NOTHING is ever a given in this business, however every one of my analog years had at least somewhat above normal snowfall. Some of the memorable winters which showed up on the list had significantly above average snowfall.

My analog years:

1968-69
1976-77
1978-79
1985-86
1993-94
2002-03

With several artic outbreaks through the center part of the country as far south as Austin, Tx. and Alexandria La. and as far east as Macon, Ga.

[wxguy25]

My analog years:

1968-69
1976-77
1978-79
1985-86
1993-94
2002-03

With several artic outbreaks through the center part of the country as far south as Austin, Tx. and Alexandria La. and as far east as Macon, Ga.

Chris - You picked some HISTORIC years, but None of them are especially good matches for this year. 1968-69 could have been if the QBO was east and moderately so. 1976-77, same deal, El Nino east winter. 1978-79 close. 1985-86 also close, but ENSO regions 3.4, 3.0 and 1+2 look too cool compared to now. QBO was a good match though. 1993-94, neutral east QBO, so its out. 2002-03 East pacific signal completely different, QBO was weak east, and El Nino was somewhat stronger, it too, is out.