18z NAM slowly emerging

[Fodie77]

At this point, it appears as if the NAM has taken another SLIGHT shift east.

For example:

12z NAM


now at 18z

[jkt21787]

The NAM initialized the low at approx 1008 mb, when in actuality it is estimated at 998 mb. So, the NAM may once again be disregarded.

The poor resolution could account for some of the difference, but is hard to believe it could miss it by 10 mb.

We shall see...

[Fodie77]

Yes, as the 18z continues to come in, it's becoming apparent that a total model consensus is slowly beginning to form.

[EXTONPA]

it does appear the latest ETA shifting east...not yet all the way out yet...

[jkt21787]

A definite shift east, although so far not to the extreme. I think its time to really believe this is going to be major for the big cities, mostly a snow event, perhaps entirely. Still too early though for definite ptype scheme and accumulations, but I think 8"+ is likely for the I-95 corridor. If there is no mixing, easily a foot or more.

[jkt21787]

At 30 hours the 0c 850 line is right near PHL and NYC. Thickness is marginal.

[Jrodd312]

A definite shift east, although so far not to the extreme. I think its time to really believe this is going to be major for the big cities, mostly a snow event, perhaps entirely. Still too early though for definite ptype scheme and accumulations, but I think 8"+ is likely for the I-95 corridor. If there is no mixing, easily a foot or more.

I definatley agree. By tonight the nam will hopefully agree with the other models.

[EXTONPA]

YEP, ETA now has heaviest snow amounts for I95 corridor!!! what a strange storm!

[Jrodd312]

YEP, ETA now has heaviest snow amounts for I95 corridor!!! what a strange storm!

Allelluia!! Things are finally coming together!!!

[EXTONPA]

ETA and GFS now almost identical....is this the solution? I'm surprised snowfall amounts not higher given the storm strength. Is this do to the fact that snow will be wet and heavy??

[Fodie77]

What do you guys think this all means for the Shenandoah Valley?

[jkt21787]

18z is overall slightly east, just enough to keep mostly snow in the cities. It is close particularly at 30 and 36 hours. The run is also drier, but sometimes 18z runs trend this way. The weak initialization could also have an impact.

I still believe, especially with the initialization, that the NAM is performing the worst with this, but at least it is starting to get on board with the others.