18z NAM slowly emerging

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Fodie77
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:21 pm

18z NAM slowly emerging

#1 Postby Fodie77 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:36 pm

At this point, it appears as if the NAM has taken another SLIGHT shift east.

For example:

12z NAM
Image

now at 18z
Image
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#2 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:37 pm

The NAM initialized the low at approx 1008 mb, when in actuality it is estimated at 998 mb. So, the NAM may once again be disregarded.

The poor resolution could account for some of the difference, but is hard to believe it could miss it by 10 mb.

We shall see...
0 likes   

Fodie77
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:21 pm

#3 Postby Fodie77 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:43 pm

Yes, as the 18z continues to come in, it's becoming apparent that a total model consensus is slowly beginning to form.
0 likes   

EXTONPA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:23 pm

#4 Postby EXTONPA » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:44 pm

it does appear the latest ETA shifting east...not yet all the way out yet...
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#5 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:46 pm

A definite shift east, although so far not to the extreme. I think its time to really believe this is going to be major for the big cities, mostly a snow event, perhaps entirely. Still too early though for definite ptype scheme and accumulations, but I think 8"+ is likely for the I-95 corridor. If there is no mixing, easily a foot or more.
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#6 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:49 pm

At 30 hours the 0c 850 line is right near PHL and NYC. Thickness is marginal.
0 likes   

Jrodd312
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:06 pm

#7 Postby Jrodd312 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:53 pm

jkt21787 wrote:A definite shift east, although so far not to the extreme. I think its time to really believe this is going to be major for the big cities, mostly a snow event, perhaps entirely. Still too early though for definite ptype scheme and accumulations, but I think 8"+ is likely for the I-95 corridor. If there is no mixing, easily a foot or more.
I definatley agree. By tonight the nam will hopefully agree with the other models.
0 likes   

EXTONPA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:23 pm

#8 Postby EXTONPA » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:54 pm

YEP, ETA now has heaviest snow amounts for I95 corridor!!! what a strange storm!
0 likes   

Jrodd312
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 158
Joined: Wed Feb 09, 2005 9:06 pm

#9 Postby Jrodd312 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:56 pm

EXTONPA wrote:YEP, ETA now has heaviest snow amounts for I95 corridor!!! what a strange storm!
Allelluia!! Things are finally coming together!!!
0 likes   

EXTONPA
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 143
Joined: Thu Jan 20, 2005 9:23 pm

#10 Postby EXTONPA » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:56 pm

ETA and GFS now almost identical....is this the solution? I'm surprised snowfall amounts not higher given the storm strength. Is this do to the fact that snow will be wet and heavy??
0 likes   

Fodie77
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 210
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:21 pm

#11 Postby Fodie77 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:58 pm

What do you guys think this all means for the Shenandoah Valley?
0 likes   

jkt21787
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2061
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 5:27 pm
Location: Memphis, TN

#12 Postby jkt21787 » Sun Feb 27, 2005 2:59 pm

18z is overall slightly east, just enough to keep mostly snow in the cities. It is close particularly at 30 and 36 hours. The run is also drier, but sometimes 18z runs trend this way. The weak initialization could also have an impact.

I still believe, especially with the initialization, that the NAM is performing the worst with this, but at least it is starting to get on board with the others.
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests