Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Weatherdude20]

Wednesday night looks intresting for North Texas DFW area, Severe Storm wise... I feel chances for Winter precip for Christmas Eve through Christmas time frame END south of a line from Wichita Falls to Gainseville to Paris... Pretty much ends just south of the Red River. However, it is quite early but based on evaluations,models,forecasts,graphics, and research it is already clear whats brewing for Monday and Tuesday... I'm throwing out a very educated estimate that DFW WILL see a Winter Storm next Monday or Tuesday... 88%

Any takers?

[msstateguy83]

how big does this look?? iam stuck @ the office have not had time to look over alot of stuff today, what about nw towards my area near wichita falls?
i know earlyer i brushed over some data and next wk was looking quite interesting =)

[Portastorm]

This afternoon's AFD's should be very interesting...........

As it turns out, they weren't. At least in my opinion. Nearly every WFO is hesitant to say much probably due to model variability beyond 72 hours.

But I will use this post to critique my own local WFO (Austin/San Antonio) who is way too warm for Christmas Day and Dec. 26th. "Five to 10 degrees below normal." Ha! We'll see about that.

[wxgirl69]

If I wanted to take a new years trip to find snow in Texas. Where should I go?

[Ntxw]

If I wanted to take a new years trip to find snow in Texas. Where should I go?

As of right now, along and north of I-20. Subject to change

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

This afternoon's AFD's should be very interesting...........

As it turns out, they weren't. At least in my opinion. Nearly every WFO is hesitant to say much probably due to model variability beyond 72 hours.

But I will use this post to critique my own local WFO (Austin/San Antonio) who is way too warm for Christmas Day and Dec. 26th. "Five to 10 degrees below normal." Ha! We'll see about that.

Yea, I saw that. NWS Corpus seemed more aggressive than Houston and Austin/San Antonio with temps.

[orangeblood]

This looks like a pronounced split flow pattern setting up next week. This pattern usually is conducive for snow storms across north and north central Texas. As long as we have the cold air in place, someone should be getting a decent amount of snow out of this pattern. More than 24 hours prior to the event, they are normally hard to predict exactly who will be getting hit. If we can hold this pattern in place, we could be talking about not just one event but several occurring over the next 2 weeks (similar to January 1978). Exciting pattern to say the least.

Analogs to look at would be Nov. 12, 1976, Jan. 1, 1978, and Jan. 21, 1983

[Ntxw]

This looks like a pronounced split flow pattern setting up next week. This pattern usually is conducive for snow storms across north and north central Texas. As long as we have the cold air in place, someone should be getting a decent amount of snow out of this pattern. More than 24 hours prior to the event, they are normally hard to predict exactly who will be getting hit. If we can hold this pattern in place, we could be talking about not just one event but several occurring over the next 2 weeks (similar to January 1978). Exciting pattern to say the least.

Analogs to look at would be Nov. 12, 1976, Jan. 1, 1978, and Jan. 21, 1983

Not to mention ice events across central and southeastern parts of Texas too.

[TrekkerCC]

After checking out the 18z GFS run for 12/29 period, it appears to show some light precipitation foretasted around the Central Texas area, and then it fizzles out. There is a upper-level disturbance crossing North Texas during the Monday/Tuesday period, but GFS might be projecting that there won't be a lot of moisture around. Curious as the ECMWF is showing abundant QPF (I have access to ECMWF QPF from a paysite) associated with this disturbance in its 12z run. I think we may have a shot for a winter weather event/storm next week, but I wouldn't be very confident yet. If the GFS and ECMWF consistently shows this event happening on Tuesday into this weekend, such as it did for several days before the Houston snowstorm, then I will VERY interested.

[Ntxw]

After checking out the 18z GFS run for 12/29 period, it appears to show some light precipitation foretasted around the Central Texas area, and then it fizzles out. There is a upper-level disturbance crossing North Texas during the Monday/Tuesday period, but GFS might be projecting that there won't be a lot of moisture around. Curious as the ECMWF is showing abundant QPF (I have access to ECMWF QPF from a paysite) associated with this disturbance in its 12z run. I think we may have a shot for a winter weather event/storm next week, but I wouldn't be very confident yet. If the GFS and ECMWF consistently shows this event happening on Tuesday into this weekend, such as it did for several days before the Houston snowstorm, then I will VERY interested.

The 6z and 18z runs imo aren't very reliable as they only extend data from the other two (fun to look at). 0z and 12z is where new data is initiated and are better trusted.

[amawea]

This discussion out of Springfield, Mo kinda confuses me. The part about a stronger surface low developing over South Arkansas, strenthening and moving north into Missouri just doesn't sound right with the pending forecast for North Arkansas being what they are. Here it is.

A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER
AND ACCUMULATING WINTER PRECIPITATION IS THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE WESTERN GULF IS BEING
TRANSPORTED NORTH INTO THE PLAINS VIA A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET.
SURFACE DEW POINT INTO THE 50S HAVE SURGED AS FAR NORTH AS THE
RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL BECOME PROBLEMATIC FOR THE REGION AS
LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ONGOING IN THE TEXAS PAN HANDLE WILL BEGIN
TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE REGION. CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION AND SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD BRING A CHANCE OF
SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FEEL THAT WE SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE
FIRST OF TWO LOWS THAT WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

INITIAL LOW WILL TRACK NORTH ALONG THE MISSOURI...KANSAS STATE
LINE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THE WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT...ALONG WITH SOME
INSTABILITY...IT WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH LOW FREEZING LEVELS AND THE
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF LIFT THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE...THE STORMS
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL TO QUARTER SIZE AND SOME
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. THIS WILL BE IN ADDITION TO
SYNOPTIC WINDS EXPECTED TO BE GUSTING TO 20 TO 30 KTS.

FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE...THOUGH MAINLY FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF HIGHWAY 65 FROM THURSDAY MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SECOND AND STRONGER SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BEGINS TO DEEPEN. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE
TO A COUPLED UPPER LEVEL JET WHICH WILL PRODUCE AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVER ARKANSAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS
WILL PROVIDE AN AREA OF DEEP LIFT AND ALLOW THE LOW TO DEVELOP
NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN MISSOURI. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
EASTERN OZARKS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE.

AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTH...COLD AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER
INTO THE REGION BEHIND A SHARP COLD FRONT. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW AS STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTH WESTERLY WINDS BRING A ARCTIC
AIRMASS INTO THE REGION. CURRENT RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
INDICATE AN AREA OF ACCUMULATION SNOW DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 65 ARE POSSIBLE.

THERE REMAINS SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN THE SUITE OF MODELS
THOUGH MOST ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE FEATURES.
FEEL THAT THE MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED VERY
CLOSELY FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING AS SMALL
CHANGES IN LOCAL FEATURES COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED CHANGES.

OVERALL EXPECT THE NEXT 72 HOURS TO BE VERY ACTIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSOURI OZARKS. FOR THOSE TRAVELING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL STATES FOR THE HOLIDAYS...STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
INFORMATION WITH THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AND A
SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IN THE FORECAST.

HATCH

[TrekkerCC]

After checking out the 18z GFS run for 12/29 period, it appears to show some light precipitation foretasted around the Central Texas area, and then it fizzles out. There is a upper-level disturbance crossing North Texas during the Monday/Tuesday period, but GFS might be projecting that there won't be a lot of moisture around. Curious as the ECMWF is showing abundant QPF (I have access to ECMWF QPF from a paysite) associated with this disturbance in its 12z run. I think we may have a shot for a winter weather event/storm next week, but I wouldn't be very confident yet. If the GFS and ECMWF consistently shows this event happening on Tuesday into this weekend, such as it did for several days before the Houston snowstorm, then I will VERY interested.

The 6z and 18z runs imo aren't very reliable as they only extend data from the other two (fun to look at). 0z and 12z is where new data is initiated and are better trusted.

True. However, I do want to watch to see if GFS for trends and consistency. It is worth noting that the 18z run didn't have a vastly different solution than the 12z run. I do agree that the 00z run will be an interesting run to judge whether the models are picking up on something or not.

[srainhoutx]

This discussion out of Springfield, Mo kinda confuses me. The part about a stronger surface low developing over South Arkansas, strenthening and moving north into Missouri just doesn't sound right with the pending forecast for North Arkansas being what they are.

Hey amawea. Here is the Low Track Update from the HPC as of 22Z. It's a very complex and complicated setup. The warm sector will see a lot of rainfall to the right of the low forecast to form in N LA/S AR if guidance verifies. Hope it helps.

[amawea]

Thanks much for the graphics srainhoutx. It does help alot!

[gofrogs]

CBS 11 for dfw has rain or snow for next tuesday

[amawea]

Here are the latest model runs....

..........

[wxgirl69]

Here are the latest model runs....

..........

LMAO!!!! That is the most entertaining forecast I have seen in a long time.

[Ntxw]

Here are the latest model runs....

..........

LMAO!!!! That is the most entertaining forecast I have seen in a long time.

Not to mention quite accurate xD

[mysterymachinebl]

Here are the latest model runs....

..........

LMAO!!!! That is the most entertaining forecast I have seen in a long time.

Not to mention quite accurate xD

unfortunately....

[msstateguy83]

people up in oklahoma, along the redriver watch this system still closely, i still have my eye on it watchin the front, upper
low i have serrious, serrious doubts about the frontal timing, wondering if its gonna punch thru much earlyer then forecast.. just
something to keep an eye on iam not saying iam gonna be right but there is always that chance, models have done that to
us before.