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HM wrote:
Seems like it's doing the same thing it did with Part I. Shows a big snow then makes a last second shift to GFS.
NOT true ..... first of all the first event was a weakening s/w in the flow that was going to literally hit a wall of dry air. AS THE s/w weakened, the precip broke up. AS it was coming NORTH it was trying to saturate the air while doing so. GIVEN that, the snow dwindled.
THIS event is a well defined h5 low coming east from S plains. ALSO coastal cyclogensis tonight will become the noreaster tomorrow/wed. In this case the models were, on 12z run, classic for what they did w/ the ETA wet/west and GFS slighter drier and probably the better track of low. 18z run will not alter my thinking at all. NOT unless its a distinct trend tonight WRT the 00z data. TURNS out the best thing for this mornings snow was a compromise of GFS / ETA.
THE MM5 is unusually wet too which is why I gave the bigger snow forecast instead of a compromise. NO I dont think we see 30-36 inches which CTP MM5 has BUT 2 feet is common w/ these events in higher elevations.
Yeah in the MA we noticed that as last night's s/w hit the cold dry air comprising the CAD, the snowshield began to break up. This was evident on radar trends as early on as 3pm yesterday afternoon.
For a while I thought the dry air would eat up all the snow before it hit the ground lol.
-JEB!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
