Texas Winter 2024-2025

[cheezyWXguy]

18z GFS looking a few degrees warmer and slower.

Yehh I’m not liking this run much. Gfs holding the system back and keeps it more separated from the trough. Not as bad as the 6z, but not much better.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS looking a few degrees warmer and slower.

Yehh I’m not liking this run much. Gfs holding the system back and keeps it more separated from the trough. Not as bad as the 6z, but not much better.

Are we in the mid-range for the 2nd system?

[Stratton23]

18z GFS is a stinking hot pile of dino crap, absolutely garbage run

[txtwister78]

Yeah this would setup warm air advection and keep everything rain on this run. Just not enough cold again to work with.

[bubba hotep]

Kind of liking some of the trends on the 18z GFS, let's see if that makes any difference in the end.

Why won't you move off the Baja!?!?!

[Iceresistance]

1052 mb Arctic HP


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXkMJ.png

[Stratton23]

The difference of where the energy is at day 3 on the GFS compared to the ICON is comical

[txtwister78]

The difference of where the energy is at day 3 on the GFS compared to the ICON is comical, im still leaning towards a more progressive solution though

Really is a race against time as I felt it would be. Just was never that impressed with this pattern in general despite some of the earlier model runs that had us much colder going into next week. Even the cold that is headed our way early next week looks borderline but would probably be enough if we got the system a day earlier than what the GFS and Euro currently show.

Ensembles should really begin to hone in now. If we see those go more snow then I think we can begin to look at operationals changing their tune soon to a different scenario but that should become much clearer over the weekend.

[Throckmorton]

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index for December 2024 was –2.08. That was the ninth–lowest December index on record, which dates back to 1854.

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat

[Iceresistance]

Kind of liking some of the trends on the 18z GFS, let's see if that makes any difference in the end.

Why won't you move off the Baja!?!?!

I'm baffled it decided to stall for several days!


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXkpA.gif

[orangeblood]

The difference of where the energy is at day 3 on the GFS compared to the ICON is comical, im still leaning towards a more progressive solution though

Really is a race against time as I felt it would be. Just was never that impressed with this pattern in general despite some of the earlier model runs that had us much colder going into next week. Even the cold that is headed our way early next week looks borderline but would probably be enough if we got the system a day earlier than what the GFS and Euro currently show.

Ensembles should really begin to hone in now. If we see those go more snow then I think we can begin to look at operationals changing their tune soon to a different scenario but that should become much clearer over the weekend.

If the energy stays far enough east, there’s plenty of cold to the north and northeast to tap into…as with most every winter weather setup in Texas, all about timing. If it were colder and polar jet stronger, the system would get swallowed up with little or no precip. This is a better scenario IMO - whether the ULL cuts off or not and Polar Jet a little weaker than we first thought. It’s always complicated but this seems to have added complexities that make this really difficult to pin down.

[Stratton23]

GEFS 18z really starting to back off on a snowfall signal, this is just laughable at this point

[txtwister78]

The difference of where the energy is at day 3 on the GFS compared to the ICON is comical, im still leaning towards a more progressive solution though

Really is a race against time as I felt it would be. Just was never that impressed with this pattern in general despite some of the earlier model runs that had us much colder going into next week. Even the cold that is headed our way early next week looks borderline but would probably be enough if we got the system a day earlier than what the GFS and Euro currently show.

Ensembles should really begin to hone in now. If we see those go more snow then I think we can begin to look at operationals changing their tune soon to a different scenario but that should become much clearer over the weekend.

If the energy stays far enough east, there’s plenty of cold to the north and northeast to tap into…as with most every winter weather setup in Texas, all about timing. If it were colder and polar jet stronger, the system would get swallowed up with little or no precip. This is a better scenario IMO - whether the ULL cuts off or not and Polar Jet a little weaker than we first thought. It’s always complicated but this seems to have added complexities that make this really difficult to pin down.

Oh yeah I've been on that message for several days about the complexities of getting everything to align down across Texas for snow. It's a rare occurrence for a reason down here (especially further south you go obviously). Not only is it tough to get all the boxes chcked but the timing of that is even more critical as we're finding out.

Granted there are some things to like with the pattern next week, but if we're being honest, there's a few big red flags as well and that gets us back to snow in Texas. It's rare for a reason.

[orangeblood]

GEFS 18z really starting to back off on a snowfall signal, this is just laughable at this point

Yep, it’s going back towards the cutoff solution. Not good but still time to turn around

[cstrunk]

Winter cancel!

Just kidding.

Still plenty of time for things to trend back in the right direction for the mid-week system. If it's showing this by Sunday/Monday then we can be concerned.

[orangeblood]

18z GFS individual member runs, still some heavy hitters in the mix for Thursday. Similar to what the GFS Op showed a few runs ago

[Harp.1]

Bottom line is there is simply not enough cold air anymore. It seemed that the cold was a certainty and precip was a question. Now, it’s just the opposite. Sheesh!!!

[Stratton23]

18z Euro is way more aggressive with winter precipitation

[Gotwood]

Bottom line is there is simply not enough cold air anymore. It seemed that the cold was a certainty and precip was a question. Now, it’s just the opposite. Sheesh!!!

I think we may be underestimating the cold that’s coming.

[cheezyWXguy]

Bottom line is there is simply not enough cold air anymore. It seemed that the cold was a certainty and precip was a question. Now, it’s just the opposite. Sheesh!!!

The cold air didn’t change, the timing did. When the models were blowing up huge totals in various parts of the state, the timing was Wednesday into Thursday - now it’s Friday. This results in warmer air for us because the system cuts off from the main trough that is effectively supplying it with cold air. If the timing speeds up, the system and the trough come back into sync and winter precip is back on the table. The question is, what are the odds of that occurring? Given the model trends today, those odds seem to have decreased.