Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Brent]

Now the CMC has the Christmas winter storm lol

[gpsnowman]

Now the CMC has the Christmas winter storm lol

Just mind boggling. I need a weather break like Portastorm recommended. My head hurts and a lazy day watching football for hours is on tap.

[Brent]

GFS ice storm Christmas night into the day after in Central TX

Lol

[stormlover2013]

I hope Gfs is right so I can go to the FSU game lol

[hriverajr]

Upper air and surface don't match.. I'm totally discarding this run heheheh. That run would bring a day and a half sleet storm to Del Rio

[Brent]

1070 mb high on the CMC

[Ntxw]

Upper air and surface don't match.. I'm totally discarding this run heheheh

GFS just went to another different solution . What are we supposed to believe now. Medium range insanity. Storm, to no storm, to storm in upper midwest. Thousands of miles different.

I guess just wait until the system hits the west coast on Weds

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z seems much more robust with the -EPO and western trough through 6 days or so, but completely hangs it up, due to the SE ridge. No movement southward or eastward. Dramatically different from the previous run. Good thing my work week starts today, it will force me to take a break from these ridiculous models.

[Rgv20]

12zCMC just went of its meds.....1070mb high center in Wyoming by next Tuesday morning

[stormlover2013]

That’s why I said don’t model hug we won’t know till wed or Thursday, just the way it is

[Brent]

single digits at the end of the CMC -50's in Wyoming under a 1067 mb high

[gatorcane]

single digits at the end of the CMC -40s in Wyoming under a 1067 mb high

Lol the Crazy Uncle CMC has lost its mind:

[wxman57]

From a severe ice storm across SE TX a few days ago to near 80F on Christmas day with the 12Z run. That's why you can't rely too much on the GFS beyond 3-4 days. I'm sure its forecast for Christmas will change again in the coming days.

[bubba hotep]

Step away from the GFS till Wednesday to cut down on potential anger management issues.

Yea, it's hard to take this run seriously with the drastic changes at H5.

[gboudx]

This is typical in the mid-term. Let's see what starts happening about 0z Wednesday.

[iorange55]

That 12z GFS is “ridic” and not in a good way. THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT!

[spencer817]

That 12z GFS is “ridic” and not in a good way. THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT! THROW IT OUT!

I think it still tilts it negative, but then keeps it in MX, makes no sense.

[Tammie]

Joe Bastardi went on a Tweet storm this morning, and I believe we should all ponder his thoughtful words:

"I have enormous love for weather nuts that get excited and post maps. Its like the modern day little kid running to the window to see if its snowing, So lets just all lighten up and quit taking things so serious,Its weather, we get to watch and talk about it now, we are blessed. I think sometimes this idea that if you work in the field, you own the weather and people posting maps makes your job harder, or is irresponsible is over the top. Its called freedom, and if you feel challenged, maybe its something in you that it threatened. Weather nuts are like the guy who dreams of hitting the home run in the world series, or throwing the touchdown pass in the super bowl. Those of us blessed to work in the field should understand that there are many that wish they could, and love it as much as us! Just my opinion on all the posting going on, I think its fun. People can believe what they want to believe Alot on the table. Very different from last few Christmases as this December will turn out, which was the point we were making back in fall."

[KatDaddy]

Yep, well stated by Joe B in the post above.

Many unknowns remain such as how cold it will get, the depth of the cold air above the surface, and how much available moisture will be in the atmosphere to interact with any disturbances to pin down any details. The watch, wait, and see continues onward through next week.

Ft Worth NWS AFD:

Keep checking back with us and your other trusted weather sources as we
refine the details of this complex weather scenario over the coming days.

Houston-Galveston NWS AFD:

Like tropical wx, trends are always fun to watch, but until we get a bit closer to the time period in question, there`s just too much uncertainty to accurately predict winter wx impacts (if any) this far out.

[Ralph's Weather]

Joe Bastardi went on a Tweet storm this morning, and I believe we should all ponder his thoughtful words:

"I have enormous love for weather nuts that get excited and post maps. Its like the modern day little kid running to the window to see if its snowing, So lets just all lighten up and quit taking things so serious,Its weather, we get to watch and talk about it now, we are blessed. I think sometimes this idea that if you work in the field, you own the weather and people posting maps makes your job harder, or is irresponsible is over the top. Its called freedom, and if you feel challenged, maybe its something in you that it threatened. Weather nuts are like the guy who dreams of hitting the home run in the world series, or throwing the touchdown pass in the super bowl. Those of us blessed to work in the field should understand that there are many that wish they could, and love it as much as us! Just my opinion on all the posting going on, I think its fun. People can believe what they want to believe Alot on the table. Very different from last few Christmases as this December will turn out, which was the point we were making back in fall."

I am glad he posted that. Yes, there are some out there that are purely looking for attention but most are just honestly sharing their passion with the world. Always make your decisions based on NWS and other pros, but individuals can at times be a good supplement.