Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

12z GFS may have it for Next Weekend & it will change, but WOW!

I notice that it is backing way off on the cold - 30-31 deg in Houston on the 8th vs. 19-20F on overnight runs. Could end up like the last few fronts, meaning a chance of a brief snowflake in north TX and light freeze here. February is a dangerous winter weather month, though...

With it being that far out, it’s going to change multiple times.

[wxman57]

None of the models is handling the 500mb flow pattern the same beyond a few days out. It's best not to believe the ice/snow forecasts beyond then. Let's see if the models remain consistent if/when the event is 5 days out or less.

[harp]

The last two GFS runs even give some love to us here in south Louisiana.

[txtwister78]

None of the models is handling the 500mb flow pattern the same beyond a few days out. It's best not to believe the ice/snow forecasts beyond then. Let's see if the models remain consistent if/when the event is 5 days out or less.

Agreed. Pattern next week "may" have some potential but going beyond 5 days is setting yourself up for disappointment.

[wxman57]

Contrast with the last GFS run. A couple light freezes for Houston around the 7th-8th. Hard freeze with no precip in DFW. If the models can't handle the upper-level pattern (which they aren't), then they cannot predict surface features. Don't believe any forecasts of snow beyond 2-3 days.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSJan26-IAH.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSJan26-DFW.JPG

[bubba hotep]

Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.

[rwfromkansas]

This may not be here, but Mount Sunflower, KS recorded 29 inches of snow Yesterday.

Holy crap. I never have heard of that much snow in Kansas. BTW, Mount Sunflower is actually quite flat, just the highest elevation. It's a funny name.

I did see insane videos yesterday of a ton of snow out in Western Kansas, but I was thinking more along the lines of 16 inches or so.

The most I ever saw there was about 14. If we can build the snowpack up north, that will really help us down here.

[cheezyWXguy]

Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.

And we probably won’t even see much consistency in that regard for at least another 3-4 days

[txtwister78]

Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.

And we probably won’t even see much consistency in that regard for at least another 3-4 days

Yup just ask the NE right now regarding "snow lines". Meltdown about to commence potentially up in that region. "The big one" may end up being "the big letdown part 2" per latest models. Low further east.

[bubba hotep]

Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.

And we probably won’t even see much consistency in that regard for at least another 3-4 days

Yup just ask the NE right now regarding "snow lines". Meltdown about to commence potentially up in that region. "The big one" may end up being "the big letdown part 2" per latest models. Low further east.

Ahh, I fondly remember those days from my time back east lol

It will still be and incredibly impressive storm but if the track shifts east a 100 or so miles then it will be scorned and forgotten.

[rwfromkansas]

Is there no forum focused on the NE? I was surprised to see no thread on the storm up there.

[Ntxw]

I'm still in the shock the models have backed away from the December -PNA/cold pdo set up for Feb that was looking like a lock few days ago. I think warming of western Nino 4 isn't allowing a repeat. ENSO is different now. Similar January pattern look now but with more west Atlantic ridge.

[Iceresistance]

I'm still in the shock the models have backed away from the December -PNA/cold pdo set up for Feb that was looking like a lock few days ago. I think warming of western Nino 4 isn't allowing a repeat. ENSO is different now. Similar January pattern look now but with more west Atlantic ridge.

What a difference a few days can make!

[bubba hotep]

Is there no forum focused on the NE? I was surprised to see no thread on the storm up there.

American Weather (used to be Eastern Weather) is the primary board for Mid-Atl up through the NE. I don't know about now but it used to be wild with mega threads for storms, fighting and trolling between sub forums, nuclear weenie melts, etc.

[Iceresistance]

This may not be here, but Mount Sunflower, KS recorded 29 inches of snow Yesterday.

Holy crap. I never have heard of that much snow in Kansas. BTW, Mount Sunflower is actually quite flat, just the highest elevation. It's a funny name.

I did see insane videos yesterday of a ton of snow out in Western Kansas, but I was thinking more along the lines of 16 inches or so.

The most I ever saw there was about 14. If we can build the snowpack up north, that will really help us down here.

Found this from NWS-Dodge City, they got WAY more snow than the models expected.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Snowfall-totals-for-NWS-Dodge-City.png

NWS-Goodland does have the 27 inches at Mt. Sunflower.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Snowfall-from-NWS-Goodland.png

[Iceresistance]

Is there no forum focused on the NE? I was surprised to see no thread on the storm up there.

American Weather (used to be Eastern Weather) is the primary board for Mid-Atl up through the NE. I don't know about now but it used to be wild with mega threads for storms, fighting and trolling between sub forums, nuclear weenie melts, etc.

Yeah, I don't recommend being there, AMWX is basically Reddit for r/weather (And no, I don't have Reddit)

And also, can we keep track of the Texas Weather before we get too much off topic?

[Ntxw]

Major winter storm on the Euro.

[orangeblood]

None of the models is handling the 500mb flow pattern the same beyond a few days out. It's best not to believe the ice/snow forecasts beyond then. Let's see if the models remain consistent if/when the event is 5 days out or less.

Respectfully disagree, there is pretty remarkable agreement in the 5H pattern days 7-8...would call this above average agreement at this range

Latest Euro vs. GFS vs CMC for next Wednesday

[rwfromkansas]

HRRR seems pretty amped for OK tonight, with a little light snow northwest of DFW. Looks dry otherwise. Maybe some DFW drizzle.

[lrak]

The Mesquite trees in CCTX have new leaves already which is what happened last year. Hope this isn't a sign of a February repeat