Texas Winter 2021-2022

Winter Weather Discussion

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3041 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:16 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:12z GFS may have it for Next Weekend & it will change, but WOW!


I notice that it is backing way off on the cold - 30-31 deg in Houston on the 8th vs. 19-20F on overnight runs. Could end up like the last few fronts, meaning a chance of a brief snowflake in north TX and light freeze here. February is a dangerous winter weather month, though...


With it being that far out, it’s going to change multiple times.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3042 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:22 pm

None of the models is handling the 500mb flow pattern the same beyond a few days out. It's best not to believe the ice/snow forecasts beyond then. Let's see if the models remain consistent if/when the event is 5 days out or less.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3043 Postby harp » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:24 pm

The last two GFS runs even give some love to us here in south Louisiana.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3044 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:None of the models is handling the 500mb flow pattern the same beyond a few days out. It's best not to believe the ice/snow forecasts beyond then. Let's see if the models remain consistent if/when the event is 5 days out or less.


Agreed. Pattern next week "may" have some potential but going beyond 5 days is setting yourself up for disappointment.
Last edited by txtwister78 on Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3045 Postby wxman57 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:28 pm

Contrast with the last GFS run. A couple light freezes for Houston around the 7th-8th. Hard freeze with no precip in DFW. If the models can't handle the upper-level pattern (which they aren't), then they cannot predict surface features. Don't believe any forecasts of snow beyond 2-3 days.

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSJan26-IAH.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZGFSJan26-DFW.JPG

Image

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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3046 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:44 pm

Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3047 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:44 pm

Iceresistance wrote:This may not be here, but Mount Sunflower, KS recorded 29 inches of snow Yesterday.


Holy crap. I never have heard of that much snow in Kansas. BTW, Mount Sunflower is actually quite flat, just the highest elevation. It's a funny name.

I did see insane videos yesterday of a ton of snow out in Western Kansas, but I was thinking more along the lines of 16 inches or so.

The most I ever saw there was about 14. If we can build the snowpack up north, that will really help us down here.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3048 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:53 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.

And we probably won’t even see much consistency in that regard for at least another 3-4 days
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3049 Postby txtwister78 » Wed Jan 26, 2022 12:56 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.

And we probably won’t even see much consistency in that regard for at least another 3-4 days


Yup just ask the NE right now regarding "snow lines". Meltdown about to commence potentially up in that region. "The big one" may end up being "the big letdown part 2" per latest models. Low further east.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3050 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:06 pm

txtwister78 wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Global models coming into good agreement on a potentially high impact Southern Plains winter storm next week. I know it's out beyond D7 but the agreement across the models on some of the major players at D4 makes this a higher than normal confidence situation. Now, pinning down rain/snow lines and who gets the most qpf will still need to be worked out. This is the big one.

And we probably won’t even see much consistency in that regard for at least another 3-4 days


Yup just ask the NE right now regarding "snow lines". Meltdown about to commence potentially up in that region. "The big one" may end up being "the big letdown part 2" per latest models. Low further east.


Ahh, I fondly remember those days from my time back east lol

It will still be and incredibly impressive storm but if the track shifts east a 100 or so miles then it will be scorned and forgotten.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3051 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:13 pm

Is there no forum focused on the NE? I was surprised to see no thread on the storm up there.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3052 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:16 pm

I'm still in the shock the models have backed away from the December -PNA/cold pdo set up for Feb that was looking like a lock few days ago. I think warming of western Nino 4 isn't allowing a repeat. ENSO is different now. Similar January pattern look now but with more west Atlantic ridge.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3053 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:23 pm

Ntxw wrote:I'm still in the shock the models have backed away from the December -PNA/cold pdo set up for Feb that was looking like a lock few days ago. I think warming of western Nino 4 isn't allowing a repeat. ENSO is different now. Similar January pattern look now but with more west Atlantic ridge.


What a difference a few days can make! :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3054 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:30 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:Is there no forum focused on the NE? I was surprised to see no thread on the storm up there.


American Weather (used to be Eastern Weather) is the primary board for Mid-Atl up through the NE. I don't know about now but it used to be wild with mega threads for storms, fighting and trolling between sub forums, nuclear weenie melts, etc.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3055 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:32 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:This may not be here, but Mount Sunflower, KS recorded 29 inches of snow Yesterday.


Holy crap. I never have heard of that much snow in Kansas. BTW, Mount Sunflower is actually quite flat, just the highest elevation. It's a funny name.

I did see insane videos yesterday of a ton of snow out in Western Kansas, but I was thinking more along the lines of 16 inches or so.

The most I ever saw there was about 14. If we can build the snowpack up north, that will really help us down here.


Found this from NWS-Dodge City, they got WAY more snow than the models expected.

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Snowfall-totals-for-NWS-Dodge-City.png

NWS-Goodland does have the 27 inches at Mt. Sunflower.

Image
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Snowfall-from-NWS-Goodland.png
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3056 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:33 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:Is there no forum focused on the NE? I was surprised to see no thread on the storm up there.


American Weather (used to be Eastern Weather) is the primary board for Mid-Atl up through the NE. I don't know about now but it used to be wild with mega threads for storms, fighting and trolling between sub forums, nuclear weenie melts, etc.

Yeah, I don't recommend being there, AMWX is basically Reddit for r/weather (And no, I don't have Reddit)

And also, can we keep track of the Texas Weather before we get too much off topic?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3057 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:44 pm

Major winter storm on the Euro.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3058 Postby orangeblood » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:46 pm

wxman57 wrote:None of the models is handling the 500mb flow pattern the same beyond a few days out. It's best not to believe the ice/snow forecasts beyond then. Let's see if the models remain consistent if/when the event is 5 days out or less.


Respectfully disagree, there is pretty remarkable agreement in the 5H pattern days 7-8...would call this above average agreement at this range

Latest Euro vs. GFS vs CMC for next Wednesday
Image
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Last edited by orangeblood on Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:49 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3059 Postby rwfromkansas » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:47 pm

HRRR seems pretty amped for OK tonight, with a little light snow northwest of DFW. Looks dry otherwise. Maybe some DFW drizzle.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#3060 Postby lrak » Wed Jan 26, 2022 1:55 pm

The Mesquite trees in CCTX have new leaves already which is what happened last year. :eek: Hope this isn't a sign of a February repeat :double:
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