Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Yukon Cornelius]

The thing that has me puzzled over this whole possible winter weather scenario is, with the Xmas blizzard of 2009, the temp was in the upper 60s/lower 70s for days before the event and even right up to when the precipitation occurred. I realize this is probably a completely different scenario. If I remember right, we were forecasted to stay above freezing and a mix of rain and snow was forecasted for my area. When the precipitation started falling, the temp dropped and what started as rain quickly changed over to snow. Our local forecasting office called for a light dusting to no accumulation and we ended up getting around 12". Could something like that occur this time? I'm sure the accumulations would be quite less, but what are the chances something similar could occur?

[ronyan]

The thing that has me puzzled over this whole possible winter weather scenario is, with the Xmas blizzard of 2009, the temp was in the upper 60s/lower 70s for days before the event and even right up to when the precipitation occurred. I realize this is probably a completely different scenario. If I remember right, we were forecasted to stay above freezing and a mix of rain and snow was forecasted for my area. When the precipitation started falling, the temp dropped and what started as rain quickly changed over to snow. Our local forecasting office called for a light dusting to no accumulation and we ended up getting around 12". Could something like that occur this time? I'm sure the accumulations would be quite less, but what are the chances something similar could occur?

If the snow is heavy enough it can create a sub-freezing layer on the ground.

[TheProfessor]

The SREF has trended colder, wetter, and snowier so far today, it's mean shows about 2.5 inches of precipitation and 2 inches of snow with temperatures around 37 at the time of snow. The colder ensembles show a temp of 34 with 8-12 inches of snow, they also show less precip as the warmer ensembles. If the colder ensembles are correct this could look a lot like 2010.

[Brent]

The SREF has trended colder, wetter, and snowier so far today, it's mean shows about 2.5 inches of precipitation and 2 inches of snow with temperatures around 37 at the time of snow. The colder ensembles show a temp of 34 with 8-12 inches of snow, they also show less precip as the warmer ensembles. If the colder ensembles are correct this could look a lot like 2010.

Don't even bring up that analog.

I have to say I woke up today with a sense this storm is going to surprise...

[wxman57]

The airmass across NE TX and OK just doesn't look that cold. Might be a chance of some sleet in the DFW area but I think that's it. Snow will likely be confined to the Panhandle and west TX. Both the Euro and NAM indicate a small pocked of 1/2" to 1" of snow north of DFW up around the Red River, but the atmosphere looks too warm in the lower thousand feet or so for snow.

[Ntxw]

This isn't like something we saw in 2010 or December 2009. There isn't a vast cold air mass sitting in place. This set up is something SE Texas often sees, dynamic driven if you're lucky it will changeover for a time and heavy qpf makes up for lack of cold ratios for the lucky ones.

[Ralph's Weather]

The airmass across NE TX and OK just doesn't look that cold. Might be a chance of some sleet in the DFW area but I think that's it. Snow will likely be confined to the Panhandle and west TX. Both the Euro and NAM indicate a small pocked of 1/2" to 1" of snow north of DFW up around the Red River, but the atmosphere looks too warm in the lower thousand feet or so for snow.

I agree, even the cold models seem to be too warm for snow. I have a hard time seeing how the cold ensemble members will verify, but if they do it will be a big time event which is why it is interesting.

[Yukon Cornelius]

One product issued by NWS for: Burkburnett TX More Sharing ServicesShare|Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on emailShare on gmailShare on stumbleupon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1015 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-221800-
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WASHITA-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COAL-COTTON-
JEFFERSON-CARTER-JOHNSTON-ATOKA-LOVE-MARSHALL-BRYAN-HARDEMAN-
FOARD-WILBARGER-WICHITA-KNOX-BAYLOR-ARCHER-CLAY-
455 AM CST WED JAN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH
TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

.WINTER WEATHER...
A LARGE UPPER STORM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO SETTLE INTO OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS...SETTING THE STAGE
FOR SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS
LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AROUND SUNSET AND
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA BY
MID-DAY THURSDAY. AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR THE TEXAS
BORDER MAY SEE 6 INCHES OR A BIT MORE. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL
ALLOW SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR SEVERAL HOURS ONLY ON GRASS OR ELEVATED
SURFACE, BUT LATER THIS EVENING ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ON BARE
GROUND AND ROADWAYS.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.WINTER WEATHER...
SNOW WILL CONTINUE UNTIL MID-DAY THURSDAY.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY OCCUR FROM CENTRAL THROUGH
SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NORTH TEXAS... THOUGH AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

GET GRAPHICS AND MORE DETAILS AT WEATHER.GOV/NORMAN...AND FOLLOW
OUR WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE ON TWITTER AND FACEBOOK.

$$

AUSTIN

[Tejas89]

Large swath of rain moving toward the metroplex from the SW. Bring it. We're almost .5" above normal so far this year, in our driest month usually. These 24-36 hour soakers are always welcome.

[Shoshana]

As far as I've seen in weather reports, all we're going to see here in Austin is cold rain. We need rain.

Wish we'd get some hard freezes to kill the weeds though, we're already seeing weeds that normally show up in March.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I dont see snow for DFW either. Dont get too excited for it!

[Tireman4]

As far as I've seen in weather reports, all we're going to see here in Austin is cold rain. We need rain.

Wish we'd get some hard freezes to kill the weeds though, we're already seeing weeds that normally show up in March.

Yeah, the clovers are nuts in Houston ( at least in my neighborhood)

[orangeblood]

AO falling off a cliff....check out the blocking over the Pole late next week by both the Euro and GFS. Both models build 1060 plus HP's in Northern Canada (some 6 Standard Deviations above normal). This winter is far from over!!

12Z Euro


12Z GFS

[TheProfessor]

Hmmm FWD now has a low of 32 Thursday night for me (southern Denton County) last I checked they had it being 36, I wonder if there is any possibility for heavy precipitation rates Thursday night, I think that's one of the reason some of the SREF ensembles are showing 4 inches of snow for DFW with the temps a little above freezing.

[Ralph's Weather]

AO falling off a cliff....check out the blocking over the Pole late next week by both the Euro and GFS. Both models build 1060 plus HP's in Northern Canada (some 6 Standard Deviations above normal). This winter is far from over!!

That should be the best snow setup we have seen this season. The 12Z GFS shows it resulting in similar conditions to this week though a bit cooler, but that set-up should be colder than it is showing.

[CaptinCrunch]

ground temp have warmed greatly over the past few days with near 70 degree temps, however a good cold rain will cool the ground by several degrees, and if it can cool it enough and you get a heavy snow burst to quickly cover the ground it can create a thermal blanket allowing the snow above to start accumulating.

[Tireman4]

[quote="orangeblood"]AO falling off a cliff....check out the blocking over the Pole late next week by both the Euro and GFS. Both models build 1060 plus HP's in Northern Canada (some 6 Standard Deviations above normal). This winter is far from over!!


This does not bode well for Heat Mongerers...

[TheProfessor]

The 15z SREF comes in little bit wetter with similar temperatures as the 9z. Showing 2.5 inches of QPF for DFW.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z NAM looks warmer for tomorrow afternoon than previous runs with freezing level above 850mb. Looking at it tomorrow morning will need to be watched for areas north of I-30 as the band of heavy precip moves through.

[weatherdude1108]

Anybody see the 12Z GFS from about 228 to 288 hours out (February 1-2)? It paints a mixed-bag picture of precipitation from rain to snow in west Texas and the panhandle, to more rain (maybe storms) across the majority of the rest of the state.

Granted it's a ways off in Winter Wonderland prediction, but definitely something to eyeball and talk about.