Texas Winter 2015-2016

[Ntxw]

So according to the euro and looking at the latest nam trends snow is a possibility in the Dallas area this week?

It's an outside miracle shot. We haven't had anything to look at in about a month so at least it's something. At the very least we will all get appreciable rain, much cooler temperatures, and a reminder it is still technically winter.

Interestingly the rainfall next 24 hours or so (including what's on the radar now) is not actually from the storm as that has yet to crash onshore. It's disturbances riding the subtropical jet.

[Brent]

So according to the euro and looking at the latest nam trends snow is a possibility in the Dallas area this week?

It's an outside miracle shot. We haven't had anything to look at in about a month so at least it's something. At the very least we will all get appreciable rain, much cooler temperatures, and a reminder it is still technically winter.

Interestingly the rainfall next 24 hours or so (including what's on the radar now) is not actually from the storm as that has yet to crash onshore. It's disturbances riding the subtropical jet.

yep I'll be glad just to see some good rains... it's been too dry lately.

I think even in the likely best case scenario you'll have to go north of the metro to see anything much.

[EnnisTx]

Already an inch of rain in my gage!

[Ntxw]

What is this stuff I am hearing outside my window? Moderate Rain? Thunder? So alien...

[Brent]

What is this stuff I am hearing outside my window? Moderate Rain? Thunder? So alien...

I know right... some mysterious sounds and flashes of light...

[gpsnowman]

What is this stuff I am hearing outside my window? Moderate Rain? Thunder? So alien...

Amen brother. Falling here also. Water. Moisture. Liquid gold dropping from the sky. Dare I say some thunder and lightning accompany these showers. Finally.

[Brent]

The 0z Euro confines the snow to the OK/AR border region(well east of the 35/75 corridor) and north of the Red River. Zero snow for the majority of Oklahoma otherwise other than the Panhandle.

[Ntxw]

Yep Euro caved to the GFS. To no surprise the model with the least cold and snow wins story of this winter! But hey expectations were low to nonexistent

[JDawg512]

All I got was a rock....

So once again there was some sort of dry air bubble over most of Austin as the rain evaporated coming through the hill country then redeveloped just to the east. I'm so over it!

[Ralph's Weather]

This will be a very interesting storm tonwatch tomorrow evening. A tad deeper than currently modeled and some areas could get heavy wet snow.

[Portastorm]

Here we go again, pretty much all of the reliable short and medium range models showed rain as a sure bet for Austin overnight. A perusal of morning rain gauges in Travis County shows goose eggs everywhere. What a busted forecast! North Texas got the rain and we got the shaft.

Think of us this week gang when the new drought maps come out and last week's orange blob over SC TX is yet a little darker.

[South Texas Storms]

Here we go again, pretty much all of the reliable short and medium range models showed rain as a sure bet for Austin overnight. A perusal of morning rain gauges in Travis County shows goose eggs everywhere. What a busted forecast! North Texas got the rain and we got the shaft.

Think of us this week gang when the new drought maps come out and last week's orange blob over SC TX is yet a little darker.

Just wait until tonight Porta. A line of strong to severe storms will likely move across much of south central Texas with a more potent storm system. Most models show rainfall totals in the 0.50-1.50 inch range for us tonight.

[WeatherGuesser]

[srainhoutx]

Morning briefing from Jeff:

Band of moderate to at times heavy rainfall moving across SE TX early this morning in combination with a weak frontal boundary and upper level short wave.

Rainfall amounts this morning have averaged 1.0-2.5 inches from northern Polk Co to Washington Co. with lesser amounts south of this band. Overall radar trend has been decreasing with time as the activity is shifting southward, but expect a .25 to .75 of an inch of rainfall along and south of I-10 as the band progresses toward the coast.

Attention quickly turns to the deepening short wave trough over the north-central Rockies dropping rapidly toward TX currently. This feature will undergo strong deepening today as it moves SE with strong height falls arriving into NW TX late this afternoon. Surface low pressure will rapidly develop over the TX Hilly Country late this afternoon resulting in the ill defined frontal boundary over SE TX to lift northward as a warm front. Impressive deepening of the short wave and surface low tonight over TX will lead to a large increase in the wind fields over the region. Moisture being pushed southward currently, will rapidly return after dark this evening as a 35-40kt low level jet develops. Low level winds become backed some on Tuesday morning with the track on the deepening surface low toward/north of College Station and this may increase low level shear values. Think enough parameters will be in place for strong and severe thunderstorms from early Tuesday morning (100-300am) until around noon on Tuesday. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds, but cannot rule out isolated tornadoes especially near the warm front which may be draped across our northern set of counties. Think the wind damage threat is likely the highest threat given 100kts of mid level flow plowing into the backside of the storm system. Will need to update this threat again this afternoon.

Surface cyclone really bombs out over N LA late Tuesday with surface pressures falling all the way down into the 991-995mb range. Very strong low level jet will develop on the backside of the surface low over TX and expecting very strong winds to mix to the surface Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Looking at 45-50mph right off the surface and expect sustained 30-40mph by Tuesday afternoon over the region with gusts 45mph+. Will need wind advisories and could flirt with high wind warning criteria across our western counties where the sun may peak out more allowing stronger winds aloft to mix toward the surface. Gale Watch all coastal waters starting Tuesday evening and this will need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning. Lucky wetting rains today and again tomorrow morning should negate any fire weather concerns.

[Ntxw]

Yes porta wait until tonight and tomorrow. Yesterday's stuff was mostly subtropical jet disturbances, the main feature is tonight and tomorrow and deep surface low will create a large shield of rain across the state. You don't see a low 990s surface low that is not tropical everyday this far south.

Btw SOI just crashed again all the way down to -50

[Ralph's Weather]

Yes porta wait until tonight and tomorrow. Yesterday's stuff was mostly subtropical jet disturbances, the main feature is tonight and tomorrow and deep surface low will create a large shield of rain across the state. You don't see a low 990s surface low that is not tropical everyday this far south.

Btw SOI just crashed again all the way down to -50

This will be a very strong system. I managed about .8" with these leading shortwaves. Temps should hold in the 50s here maybe below 55 if we don't get any sun. Tomorrow will be even cooler with heavy rain and strong winds so it will feel very chilly. I will keep a close eye on how strong the system gets to see how much cold can be brought down dynamically. A 15 degree drop on the backside of a system this strong is not out of the question and that would put us in the 37 degree range tomorrow night with ongoing precip and cold upper levels.

Could see more good rains and cold next week.

[Jarodm12]

12z Nam back to bringing accumulating snow( in the dallas area)around an extremely intense low

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing snow in Dallas on the 12Z NAM. It has temps in the low 40s across D-FW during the precip.

[Jarodm12]

yes sorry i am in east Collin county and believe i am near where it shows accumulating snow am i mistaken? also i said Dallas area, which i meant generally but not specifically Dallas county. can you pin point exactly where the snow is shown to fall? thank you in advance sir

ETA: 4km nam?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=500

[wxman57]

yes sorry i am in east Collin county and believe i am near where it shows accumulating snow am i mistaken? also i said Dallas area, which i meant generally but not specifically Dallas county. can you pin point exactly where the snow is shown to fall? thank you in advance sir

ETA: 4km nam?

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=500

Those light gray "accumulations" should be ignored. The NAM has temps near 40 degrees at the time of precip there.