#3474 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Feb 22, 2016 8:38 am
Morning briefing from Jeff:
Band of moderate to at times heavy rainfall moving across SE TX early this morning in combination with a weak frontal boundary and upper level short wave.
Rainfall amounts this morning have averaged 1.0-2.5 inches from northern Polk Co to Washington Co. with lesser amounts south of this band. Overall radar trend has been decreasing with time as the activity is shifting southward, but expect a .25 to .75 of an inch of rainfall along and south of I-10 as the band progresses toward the coast.
Attention quickly turns to the deepening short wave trough over the north-central Rockies dropping rapidly toward TX currently. This feature will undergo strong deepening today as it moves SE with strong height falls arriving into NW TX late this afternoon. Surface low pressure will rapidly develop over the TX Hilly Country late this afternoon resulting in the ill defined frontal boundary over SE TX to lift northward as a warm front. Impressive deepening of the short wave and surface low tonight over TX will lead to a large increase in the wind fields over the region. Moisture being pushed southward currently, will rapidly return after dark this evening as a 35-40kt low level jet develops. Low level winds become backed some on Tuesday morning with the track on the deepening surface low toward/north of College Station and this may increase low level shear values. Think enough parameters will be in place for strong and severe thunderstorms from early Tuesday morning (100-300am) until around noon on Tuesday. Main threats will be large hail and damaging winds, but cannot rule out isolated tornadoes especially near the warm front which may be draped across our northern set of counties. Think the wind damage threat is likely the highest threat given 100kts of mid level flow plowing into the backside of the storm system. Will need to update this threat again this afternoon.
Surface cyclone really bombs out over N LA late Tuesday with surface pressures falling all the way down into the 991-995mb range. Very strong low level jet will develop on the backside of the surface low over TX and expecting very strong winds to mix to the surface Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. Looking at 45-50mph right off the surface and expect sustained 30-40mph by Tuesday afternoon over the region with gusts 45mph+. Will need wind advisories and could flirt with high wind warning criteria across our western counties where the sun may peak out more allowing stronger winds aloft to mix toward the surface. Gale Watch all coastal waters starting Tuesday evening and this will need to be upgraded to a Gale Warning. Lucky wetting rains today and again tomorrow morning should negate any fire weather concerns.
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