Texas Winter 2014-2015

[dhweather]

12Z GFS looks promising so far for rain this weekend - a good 1-2" across a lot of north Texas.

added image through 138 hours - 6Z on Sunday

[weatherdude1108]

We need all the rain we can get! They are building a new reservoir downstream of Travis to help out farmers so there can be more in the lakes upstream. Plus, the area of the new reservoir typically gets twice as much rain, which, in theory, would fill up the new reservoir several times during the year.

http://www.kvue.com/media/cinematic/vid ... ke-levels/

[dhweather]

Run completed.

2.5" over a good chunk of North Texas in the next 10 days. Hopefully. Lucy is lurking for me on this.

[dhweather]

12Z GFS also has DFW only flirting with freezing temps once, on Feb 2.

[Ntxw]

Great start so far for DFW in 2015 over 3 inches, even just half of the progged qpf would be good standing. But all that is moot if spring is dry where the majority of annual rainfall comes.

[baytownwx]

Larry Cosgrove is less impressed with some of the *upgraded* operational runs of the GFS. He just posted this to FB. "Another bad (poorly initialized) operational GFS model run. Incredible."

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove/posts/10155194601215235.

[dhweather]

:uarrow: Great start so far for DFW in 2015 over 3 inches, even just half of the progged qpf would be good standing. But all that is moot if spring is dry where the majority of annual rainfall comes.

No kidding - we MIGHT be looking at nearly 5" total for 2015 by February 10th.

But if the Spring is dry - you nailed it - all of this is moot.

[weatherdude1108]

Roller coaster ride of weather.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 262053
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY THINNING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH WARM AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 DEG IN SOME
SPOTS.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH FLATTENING RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S IN MANY LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEG AND NEAR RECORD
HIGHS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THURSDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL SLOW OVER
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FURTHER SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS WEST TEXAS
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAIN FORCING
SKIRTS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY...WITH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES
POOLED OVER THE AREA...UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGH
END TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH POTENTIALLY
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. DRYING AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TEMPORARILY DEVELOPS NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA OPENS AND EJECTS EAST BEYOND THE 7 DAY (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN THIS HAPPENS NEXT WEEK).

[Yukon Cornelius]

This place is dead as winter weather in Texas...

[Ralph's Weather]

This place is dead as winter weather in Texas...

Sure is, not much excitement to be found though something will likely start showing up soon as we are in a cool, active pattern.

[gpsnowman]

I know. Very weather depressed at the moment. The current weather is nice.....for late March. Still sports depressed after the Cowboys loss. Bad month so far. Baseball is close thank goodness.

[Texas Snowman]

How about we all take up a collection and send Wxman 57...to Fairbanks.

Great bicycle riding weather there this time of year.

[ronyan]

Nah, let's send him off to Oymyakon for a real dose of extreme cold.

[gpsnowman]

How about we all take up a collection and send Wxman 57...to Fairbanks.

Great bicycle riding weather there this time of year.

https://scontent-a-lax.xx.fbcdn.net/hph ... 6446_o.jpg

That's a good sign, right? The cold needed for Texas comes from that area of Alaska into western Canada, right? Ahh heck, time for a trip to Fairbanks.
Edit: Scratch that. Flights from DFW to Fairbanks according to Orbitz are $1522.49 round trip. Portastorm ole' buddy, can you float me a loan?

[Ralph's Weather]

How about we all take up a collection and send Wxman 57...to Fairbanks.

Great bicycle riding weather there this time of year.

Just saw that areas around there dropped to -55F this morning. If only we could make use of that cold around here.

[JDawg512]

Rainfall totals have been impressive for January, typically one of the drier months of the year. I've recorded just over 6 inches since the 1st and we aren't done with Jan just yet. We are very thankful that some form of El Niño has decided to grace us with it's presence.

It would be nice to see some snow but right now I just don't see too much hope for seeing it this weekend.

[Tejas89]

Doesn't look like DFW will tease the record highs of mid-80's this week, but the bugs will be coming out of hibernation.

While I was looking at the records I found this interesting.

Here are the number of dates, in January, with a record high/low recorded 1990 or later:

Record highs = 8
Record lows = 0

Also, 8 days have a record high minimum, registered 1990 or later. The last time we set a record low in January was Jan 20, 1985. Had no idea..

[Brent]

We can't even buy a flake while the NE can get 3 feet. It's depressing

We can have sunshine and 70s any other time of year

[One Eye]

Wouldnt it be nice to go on a road trip or flight to an open airport in the mid Atlantic now Brent! Just to experience a real bonafide blizzard would be incredible! The closest i experienced was the March 93 Superstorm.

[Brent]

Wouldnt it be nice to go on a road trip or flight to an open airport in the mid Atlantic now Brent! Just to experience a real bonafide blizzard would be incredible! The closest i experienced was the March 93 Superstorm.

If I didnt have work responsiblities I would have... I actually researched it even though I work Wednesday lol.

My eye is on Amarillo/Oklahoma this weekend. I stupidly sat out last week and have been kicking myself ever since and I'm not doing it again if it looks good.