Texas Winter 2014-2015

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#3721 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:33 pm

12Z GFS looks promising so far for rain this weekend - a good 1-2" across a lot of north Texas.

added image through 138 hours - 6Z on Sunday

Image
Last edited by dhweather on Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

#3722 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Jan 26, 2015 12:36 pm

We need all the rain we can get! They are building a new reservoir downstream of Travis to help out farmers so there can be more in the lakes upstream. Plus, the area of the new reservoir typically gets twice as much rain, which, in theory, would fill up the new reservoir several times during the year.

http://www.kvue.com/media/cinematic/vid ... ke-levels/
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3723 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:17 pm

Run completed.

2.5" over a good chunk of North Texas in the next 10 days. Hopefully. Lucy is lurking for me on this.

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

#3724 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:22 pm

12Z GFS also has DFW only flirting with freezing temps once, on Feb 2.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22796
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#3725 Postby Ntxw » Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:24 pm

:uarrow: Great start so far for DFW in 2015 over 3 inches, even just half of the progged qpf would be good standing. But all that is moot if spring is dry where the majority of annual rainfall comes.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
baytownwx
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 66
Joined: Tue Jun 19, 2012 10:38 am

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3726 Postby baytownwx » Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:42 pm

Larry Cosgrove is less impressed with some of the *upgraded* operational runs of the GFS. He just posted this to FB. "Another bad (poorly initialized) operational GFS model run. Incredible."

https://www.facebook.com/larry.cosgrove/posts/10155194601215235.
0 likes   
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:

Re:

#3727 Postby dhweather » Mon Jan 26, 2015 1:51 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: Great start so far for DFW in 2015 over 3 inches, even just half of the progged qpf would be good standing. But all that is moot if spring is dry where the majority of annual rainfall comes.


No kidding - we MIGHT be looking at nearly 5" total for 2015 by February 10th.

But if the Spring is dry - you nailed it - all of this is moot.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by dhweather is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

#3728 Postby weatherdude1108 » Mon Jan 26, 2015 4:53 pm

Roller coaster ride of weather. :layout: :lightning: :rain: :cold:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 262053
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
253 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...CIRRUS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING...EVENTUALLY THINNING AND
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. RIDGING
ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TUESDAY...WITH WARM AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S...POSSIBLY NEAR 80 DEG IN SOME
SPOTS
.


&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ON WEDNESDAY WITH FLATTENING RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENING. AFTERNOON HIGHS AGAIN IN THE UPPER
70S IN MANY LOCATIONS...POSSIBLY APPROACHING 80 DEG AND NEAR RECORD
HIGHS AT AUSTIN AND SAN ANTONIO
.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL SEND A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGHS THURSDAY SLIGHTLY COOLER...AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND BAJA
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN WILL SLOW OVER
ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY CUTTING OFF
FURTHER SOUTH OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...A LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT ACROSS WEST TEXAS
FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN
ACROSS THE CWA...WITH MAINLY CLOUDS ON FRIDAY...AND RAIN CHANCES
DEVELOPING WEST TO EAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAIN FORCING
SKIRTS THROUGH THE CWA SATURDAY...WITH PWATS OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES
POOLED OVER THE AREA...UNSEASONABLY HIGH FOR LATE JANUARY. HIGH
END TO LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.
DID NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTED FOR
HIGHS ON SATURDAY GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP CHANCES.

RAIN CHANCES LINGER INTO SUNDAY...AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
SENDING ANOTHER COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA...WITH POTENTIALLY
DISTURBANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
DRYING AND PARTIAL
CLEARING TEMPORARILY DEVELOPS NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...BEFORE EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
BAJA CALIFORNIA OPENS AND EJECTS EAST BEYOND THE 7 DAY
(HIGH
UNCERTAINTY WITH WHEN THIS HAPPENS NEXT WEEK).
0 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yukon Cornelius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1798
Age: 41
Joined: Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:23 pm
Location: Dean, TX/Westcliffe, CO

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3729 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:16 pm

This place is dead as winter weather in Texas...
0 likes   
#neversummer

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3270
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3730 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:22 pm

Yukon Cornelius wrote:This place is dead as winter weather in Texas...

Sure is, not much excitement to be found though something will likely start showing up soon as we are in a cool, active pattern.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3193
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

#3731 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:25 pm

:uarrow: I know. Very weather depressed at the moment. The current weather is nice.....for late March. Still sports depressed after the Cowboys loss. Bad month so far. Baseball is close thank goodness.
0 likes   

User avatar
Texas Snowman
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 6180
Joined: Fri Jan 25, 2008 11:29 am
Location: Denison, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3732 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:43 pm

How about we all take up a collection and send Wxman 57...to Fairbanks.

Great bicycle riding weather there this time of year. :D

Image
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

ronyan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 791
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Sep 09, 2008 5:46 pm
Location: Lake Jackson, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3733 Postby ronyan » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:48 pm

:uarrow: Nah, let's send him off to Oymyakon for a real dose of extreme cold.
0 likes   

gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3193
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3734 Postby gpsnowman » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:51 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:How about we all take up a collection and send Wxman 57...to Fairbanks.

Great bicycle riding weather there this time of year. :D

https://scontent-a-lax.xx.fbcdn.net/hph ... 6446_o.jpg

That's a good sign, right? The cold needed for Texas comes from that area of Alaska into western Canada, right? Ahh heck, time for a trip to Fairbanks.
Edit: Scratch that. Flights from DFW to Fairbanks according to Orbitz are $1522.49 round trip. Portastorm ole' buddy, can you float me a loan?
Last edited by gpsnowman on Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Ralph's Weather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3270
Age: 38
Joined: Fri Dec 13, 2013 11:55 am
Location: Lindale, TX
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3735 Postby Ralph's Weather » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:55 pm

Texas Snowman wrote:How about we all take up a collection and send Wxman 57...to Fairbanks.

Great bicycle riding weather there this time of year. :D


Just saw that areas around there dropped to -55F this morning. If only we could make use of that cold around here.
0 likes   
Follow on Facebook at Ralph's Weather.

User avatar
JDawg512
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1079
Age: 45
Joined: Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:56 pm
Location: Austin
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3736 Postby JDawg512 » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:57 pm

Rainfall totals have been impressive for January, typically one of the drier months of the year. I've recorded just over 6 inches since the 1st and we aren't done with Jan just yet. We are very thankful that some form of El Niño has decided to grace us with it's presence.

It would be nice to see some snow but right now I just don't see too much hope for seeing it this weekend.
0 likes   
Resident Rain Miser

I am a weather hobbyist living 3.5 miles south of Downtown Austin and in no way or fashion should anything I say concerning forecasts be taken seriously. Please check your local NWS for accurate weather forecasting and conditions.

Tejas89
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 429
Joined: Mon Dec 28, 2009 9:25 pm
Location: DFW, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3737 Postby Tejas89 » Mon Jan 26, 2015 5:58 pm

Doesn't look like DFW will tease the record highs of mid-80's this week, but the bugs will be coming out of hibernation.

While I was looking at the records I found this interesting.

Here are the number of dates, in January, with a record high/low recorded 1990 or later:

Record highs = 8
Record lows = 0

Also, 8 days have a record high minimum, registered 1990 or later. The last time we set a record low in January was Jan 20, 1985. Had no idea..
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38115
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3738 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:36 pm

We can't even buy a flake while the NE can get 3 feet. It's depressing

We can have sunshine and 70s any other time of year
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
One Eye
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 94
Joined: Thu Dec 12, 2002 9:14 pm
Location: Ocean Springs, MS

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3739 Postby One Eye » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:45 pm

Wouldnt it be nice to go on a road trip or flight to an open airport in the mid Atlantic now Brent! Just to experience a real bonafide blizzard would be incredible! The closest i experienced was the March 93 Superstorm. :cold:
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38115
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#3740 Postby Brent » Mon Jan 26, 2015 6:52 pm

One Eye wrote:Wouldnt it be nice to go on a road trip or flight to an open airport in the mid Atlantic now Brent! Just to experience a real bonafide blizzard would be incredible! The closest i experienced was the March 93 Superstorm. :cold:


If I didnt have work responsiblities I would have... I actually researched it even though I work Wednesday lol.

My eye is on Amarillo/Oklahoma this weekend. I stupidly sat out last week and have been kicking myself ever since and I'm not doing it again if it looks good.
0 likes   
#neversummer


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 24 guests