Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[Brent]

12z GFS showing a MAJOR winter storm for parts of the Southeast(especially the mountains but some further south as well) a week from today.







Much better setup than the last couple of runs, now for some consistency. Euro is showing a similar storm as well(though a bit less impressive)

[Brent]

Well there's going to be a massive storm of some kind, whether it's flooding rains, tornadoes, and/or snow(or maybe all 3), 2nd run in a row:

[Daktar]

Yea I have just looked over the models for the evening..I must say right now that we must look at this as HYPE! I have learned over the years that the GFS is not very accurate over 72 hours..Now with that said I must say that the EUROPEAN models have began to agree with a large storm in the south east.. It would be GREAT for me I live in the Knoxville area.. We will continue to look at the new runs with the hope I might see more than a flurry..

[Brent]

Hmmmm, this looks interesting. Much colder than the 12z, but it's only one run.

[Brent]

Really close to being something besides rain.

[Brent]

[JonathanBelles]

[Daktar]

Well Saturday has come and to my surprise there was a few flurries in the air! Downtown Knoxville had a very lite lay on the ground..However with ground temps still above freezing we will see a very rapid melt.. Once again the GFS is waffling around so much that you could play spin the wheel and get a better forcast out past 72 hours..Times like this it is very frustrating and it shows we still don't understand all the small parts of our climate that makes a complete forcast! I have seen flurries for the four time this season and they seemed to be earlier than any other time I have lived in this area.

I also wanted to say hello to everyone who lives along the GULF COAST. I spent most my life living on the Mississipi Gulf Coast.

[Ivanhater]

Now thats something I like to see after having to take a math final on a Saturday!..bring it on..and only 5 days out

[Ivanhater]

114



117

[Ivanhater]

18z GFS..

[One Eye]

Must be nice to see a little snow every now and then, Daktar! Last January, me, wife, kids and inlaws went to Hattiesburg and Laurel on a Saturday to play in four inches of the white stuff. Remeber December 19, 1995 when it snowed about 3 inches at the shipyard and they closed it down for the rest of the holidays.

[MGC]

I was in Tampa last Jan when it snowed and missed it. I have not seen a good snow since the Christmas snow in 2004. I have real doubts that it will snow next week....MGC

[hcaeb]

So can we see if we are getting any snow in NC next week. I have outdoor plans the middle of the week and I see it will be wet and have planned, but would be great to see snow instead of rain to start the season greetings!
Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!

[Brent]

Flizzard...

[Daktar]

yea it has been a little different living futher north..I do remember the dixie snow storm of 63. I also remember the super storm of 93 I was living in Escatawpa at the time.. Yes and I do remember my days working at the shipyard..The steel was always cold.. I will say one thing living up here in Tennessee when it is cold you go to work! Nothing like a good days work when you leave the house with the Temps hovering around 10.
It is great to see a little snow but how I miss the smell of the salt water..
33.3 cloudy skies calm winds...

[Brent]

If only it weren't 372 hours out.



Wednesday/Thursday looks like a non-event as far as snow goes at the moment anyway(lots of rain though), maybe some backside flurries but those rarely ever actually happen.

[Ivanhater]

I think it is going to be close along the Gulfcoast..only 78 and 84 hours out..if the GFS is just a wee bit slow, could be even heavier..grabed this quote from wxman..

Again, classic cross-Polar flow pattern with the leading edge of Arctic air already in Texas and maybe not far to our north. With southwest flow aloft, this is the type of pattern that would lay down a snow pack as it moves south through the Plains. Could get "interesting" across the Gulf Coast with this type of flow pattern, but I'm not making any predictions of a coastal snow/ice event yet.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think it is going to be close along the Gulfcoast..only 78 and 84 hours out..if the GFS is just a wee bit slow, could be even heavier..grabed this quote from wxman..

Again, classic cross-Polar flow pattern with the leading edge of Arctic air already in Texas and maybe not far to our north. With southwest flow aloft, this is the type of pattern that would lay down a snow pack as it moves south through the Plains. Could get "interesting" across the Gulf Coast with this type of flow pattern, but I'm not making any predictions of a coastal snow/ice event yet.

That quote refers to another front about 8 days from texas, not the one 3 days from now. This one will be an appetizer at best for whats soon to come next week.

[Ivanhater]

You out there Brent! Looking good for snow on the Gulfcoast!