Texas Winter 2019-2020

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TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#421 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:01 pm

Nothing on the Canadian model :spam:
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Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
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harp
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#422 Postby harp » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:06 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Nothing on the Canadian model :spam:

Except the cold!
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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#423 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:11 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Nothing on the Canadian model :spam:


It elongates and splits the Massive PV coming down from Greenland this weekend....need it to stay intact (12Z GFS) as it will dominate the North American weather pattern late week 1 into 2. Creating a more southerly storm track with plenty of cold air pivoting around it
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#424 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:14 pm

Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

Image
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Brent
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#425 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:15 pm

orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


This one is save worthy :lol: :roll:
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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#426 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:18 pm

Brent wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


This one is save worthy :lol: :roll:


That's every state except Florida with at least 6 inches of frozen precip
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#427 Postby harp » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:23 pm

It needs to ease over to south Louisiana!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#428 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:53 pm

End of the Euro(which is getting close to the GFS timeframe) looks dry and seasonal
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#429 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:09 pm

Euro temps at 240 hrs are 20 deg warmer than the GFS (low of 45 in Dallas vs. 25). No snow or ice. Darn, and I believed the GFS!
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#430 Postby TexasSam » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:20 pm

Brent wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


This one is save worthy :lol: :roll:

That shows my cousin in N. Carolina getting 27 inches of snow. Lol
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#431 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:47 pm

orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


Most of that is ice and sleet. Not snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#432 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:54 pm

0.5" of rain this morning. 43 degrees. No complaints here! :)
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#433 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:59 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


Most of that is ice and sleet. Not snow.


True, a VERY pronounced warm nose over the DFW area with surface temps in the mid 20s. Inches of freezing rain? That would be really nice.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#434 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


Most of that is ice and sleet. Not snow.


True, a VERY pronounced warm nose over the DFW area with surface temps in the mid 20s. Inches of freezing rain? That would be really nice.


The warm nose I can believe :ggreen:
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#435 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:55 pm

18z GFS still has a storm but not nearly as bad only one frame is icy for DFW even otherwise it is a very cold rain
Image
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bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#436 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:55 pm

18z GFS is close but not as big of a winter storm as 12z. The GFS sends down a lobe of the TPV with associated cold air. At the same time a steady stream of disturbances are lined up across the Pacific. As the TPV lobe rotates down heights rise over Greenland and a Pacific system digs into the SW. So there is cold air over the top as the storm kicks out across Texas. Pretty classic setup, if it were to occur.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#437 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:09 pm

Brent wrote:18z GFS still has a storm but not nearly as bad only one frame is icy for DFW even otherwise it is a very cold rain
https://i.ibb.co/y6vB1X3/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-40.png

At least the cold and the system are still depicted. I am surprised the 18z GFS didn't switch to 70's and dry. :D
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#438 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:22 pm

bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS is close but not as big of a winter storm as 12z. The GFS sends down a lobe of the TPV with associated cold air. At the same time a steady stream of disturbances are lined up across the Pacific. As the TPV lobe rotates down heights rise over Greenland and a Pacific system digs into the SW. So there is cold air over the top as the storm kicks out across Texas. Pretty classic setup, if it were to occur.


Hard to buy into at day 10 on the GFS but this is by far our next chance
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#439 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:26 pm

From what ive read, most of the op runs and ensembles are indicating the ao trending negative and nao, especially the eps. Something we havent seen in a while if it occurs
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Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#440 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:45 pm

Beyond that huge rain event for Christmas but it is rain outside of the Panhandle the pattern is very active though
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