Texas Winter 2019-2020

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Locked
Message
Author
User avatar
TropicalTundra
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 703
Joined: Wed Oct 16, 2019 12:56 pm
Location: Temple, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#421 Postby TropicalTundra » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:01 pm

Nothing on the Canadian model :spam:
0 likes   
Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation

Don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?

All observations I post are for Temple, Texas unless otherwise stated.
Top
harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#422 Postby harp » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:06 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Nothing on the Canadian model :spam:

Except the cold!
0 likes   
Top
orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#423 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:11 pm

TropicalTundra wrote:Nothing on the Canadian model :spam:


It elongates and splits the Massive PV coming down from Greenland this weekend....need it to stay intact (12Z GFS) as it will dominate the North American weather pattern late week 1 into 2. Creating a more southerly storm track with plenty of cold air pivoting around it
2 likes   
Top
orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#424 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:14 pm

Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

Image
4 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#425 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:15 pm

orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


This one is save worthy :lol: :roll:
2 likes   
#neversummer
Top
orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#426 Postby orangeblood » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:18 pm

Brent wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


This one is save worthy :lol: :roll:


That's every state except Florida with at least 6 inches of frozen precip
1 likes   
Top
harp
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 517
Joined: Mon Dec 31, 2018 12:01 am
Location: South Louisiana

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#427 Postby harp » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:23 pm

It needs to ease over to south Louisiana!
1 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#428 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 1:53 pm

End of the Euro(which is getting close to the GFS timeframe) looks dry and seasonal
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#429 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:09 pm

Euro temps at 240 hrs are 20 deg warmer than the GFS (low of 45 in Dallas vs. 25). No snow or ice. Darn, and I believed the GFS!
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
TexasSam
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 573
Age: 66
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 12:16 am
Location: Port Arthur, Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#430 Postby TexasSam » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:20 pm

Brent wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


This one is save worthy :lol: :roll:

That shows my cousin in N. Carolina getting 27 inches of snow. Lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Cpv17
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4979
Joined: Wed Dec 07, 2016 2:24 pm
Location: Wharton/El Campo, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#431 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:47 pm

orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


Most of that is ice and sleet. Not snow.
2 likes   
Top
weatherdude1108
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4228
Joined: Tue Dec 13, 2011 1:04 pm
Location: Northwest Austin/Cedar Park, TX

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#432 Postby weatherdude1108 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:54 pm

0.5" of rain this morning. 43 degrees. No complaints here! :)
1 likes   
The preceding post is NOT an official forecast, and should not be used as such. It is only the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#433 Postby wxman57 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 2:59 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


Most of that is ice and sleet. Not snow.


True, a VERY pronounced warm nose over the DFW area with surface temps in the mid 20s. Inches of freezing rain? That would be really nice.
1 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#434 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 3:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Might be the most outlandish GFS run for the lower 48 I've ever seen.... :double:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019121012/gfs_asnow_us_65.png


Most of that is ice and sleet. Not snow.


True, a VERY pronounced warm nose over the DFW area with surface temps in the mid 20s. Inches of freezing rain? That would be really nice.


The warm nose I can believe :ggreen:
1 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#435 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:55 pm

18z GFS still has a storm but not nearly as bad only one frame is icy for DFW even otherwise it is a very cold rain
Image
3 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
bubba hotep
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5837
Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
Location: Collin County Texas

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#436 Postby bubba hotep » Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:55 pm

18z GFS is close but not as big of a winter storm as 12z. The GFS sends down a lobe of the TPV with associated cold air. At the same time a steady stream of disturbances are lined up across the Pacific. As the TPV lobe rotates down heights rise over Greenland and a Pacific system digs into the SW. So there is cold air over the top as the storm kicks out across Texas. Pretty classic setup, if it were to occur.
4 likes   
Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
Top
gpsnowman
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3185
Joined: Fri Jan 07, 2011 10:35 am
Location: Grand Prairie Tx

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#437 Postby gpsnowman » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:09 pm

Brent wrote:18z GFS still has a storm but not nearly as bad only one frame is icy for DFW even otherwise it is a very cold rain
https://i.ibb.co/y6vB1X3/gfs-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-40.png

At least the cold and the system are still depicted. I am surprised the 18z GFS didn't switch to 70's and dry. :D
2 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#438 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:22 pm

bubba hotep wrote:18z GFS is close but not as big of a winter storm as 12z. The GFS sends down a lobe of the TPV with associated cold air. At the same time a steady stream of disturbances are lined up across the Pacific. As the TPV lobe rotates down heights rise over Greenland and a Pacific system digs into the SW. So there is cold air over the top as the storm kicks out across Texas. Pretty classic setup, if it were to occur.


Hard to buy into at day 10 on the GFS but this is by far our next chance
1 likes   
#neversummer
Top
hamburgerman7070
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 253
Joined: Sat Dec 02, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Jonesboro ar

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#439 Postby hamburgerman7070 » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:26 pm

From what ive read, most of the op runs and ensembles are indicating the ao trending negative and nao, especially the eps. Something we havent seen in a while if it occurs
2 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

Re: Texas Winter 2019-2020

#440 Postby Brent » Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:45 pm

Beyond that huge rain event for Christmas but it is rain outside of the Panhandle the pattern is very active though
1 likes   
#neversummer
Top
Locked

Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests