Upcoming cold for the South (Models, Maps, Discussions)

[jasons2k]

This reminds me on the talking tropics board talking about a tropical wave that has a remote chance of forming into a depression thread hitting 70 pages.

LOL, that's a pretty good one.

Just don't forget, the longest of those "nonsense" threads that went on for days and days became Katrina...

[Portastorm]

Here's the thing ... as Air Force Met has pointed out, most of Texas' classic arctic outbreaks occur when there is a massive high pressure ridge that migrates south from the pole regions and pools its main thrust literally down the lee side of the Rockies.

I can remember years ago being clued in to an artic outbreak by the savvy Valley mets (Brownsville, right CC?) as well as the NWS guys in Denver looking for their temps to drop significantly. When the air took that route, you could almost guarantee an arctic outbreak.

Our descent into colder temps may happen more slowly as the atmosphere moderates into more normal and then below normal temps ... certainly there will be plenty of cold air to our north and northeast.

The Southern jet is progged to remain active so we may end up seeing a couple of sloppy winter weather events by mid February as well.

[Portastorm]

This reminds me on the talking tropics board talking about a tropical wave that has a remote chance of forming into a depression thread hitting 70 pages.

LOL, that's a pretty good one.

Just don't forget, the longest of those "nonsense" threads that went on for days and days became Katrina...

Yikes!

[jasons2k]

I still don't think we'll get the brunt of it at least in the beginning, I still think the brunt of it goes east, but some things are showing-up that may open the door for Texas mid-to-late February.

I'm not sold on the High over Idaho just yet, but things like that certainly pique my interest. That's a lot different than a high over Detroit.

I am getting a little concerned about how the trees here are going to react. The pecans, bradford pears, and my Valencia Orange tree are starting to bloom out. If we get another freeze they will be in for a shock.

[Kelarie]

I still don't think we'll get the brunt of it at least in the beginning, I still think the brunt of it goes east, but some things are showing-up that may open the door for Texas mid-to-late February.

I'm not sold on the High over Idaho just yet, but things like that certainly pique my interest. That's a lot different than a high over Detroit.

I am getting a little concerned about how the trees here are going to react. The pecans, bradford pears, and my Valencia Orange tree are starting to bloom out. If we get another freeze they will be in for a shock.

I heard this morning that some growers are icing down their plants/trees to keep them from blooming. I don't think it is on a large scale. But interesting concept. It might help in tricking the trees in going back to dormancy.

[Portastorm]

I still don't think we'll get the brunt of it at least in the beginning, I still think the brunt of it goes east, but some things are showing-up that may open the door for Texas mid-to-late February.

I'm not sold on the High over Idaho just yet, but things like that certainly pique my interest. That's a lot different than a high over Detroit.

I am getting a little concerned about how the trees here are going to react. The pecans, bradford pears, and my Valencia Orange tree are starting to bloom out. If we get another freeze they will be in for a shock.

Very good question. I wondered the same thing this weekend as I was in my backyard and noticing all of the trees starting to bud.

I did hear recently where our drought conditions have pretty much guaranteed a lousy wildflower/bluebonnet season for those of us in south central Texas.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Here's the thing ... as Air Force Met has pointed out, most of Texas' classic arctic outbreaks occur when there is a massive high pressure ridge that migrates south from the pole regions and pools its main thrust literally down the lee side of the Rockies.

I can remember years ago being clued in to an artic outbreak by the savvy Valley mets (Brownsville, right CC?) as well as the NWS guys in Denver looking for their temps to drop significantly. When the air took that route, you could almost guarantee an arctic outbreak.

.

That is correct about the Arctic outbreaks that have hit Texas with a whooping. If you start seeing the sub zero and much below stuff overtake Montana and the Dakotas into Wyoming. The chances are we are going to get the brunt instead of the Southeast and Florida. When the core is more over towards, Minniesota, Wisconsin and the Great Lakes, that's when we get swiped which could still lead to some pretty chilly stuff, but nothing record breaking.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

I still don't think we'll get the brunt of it at least in the beginning, I still think the brunt of it goes east, but some things are showing-up that may open the door for Texas mid-to-late February.

I'm not sold on the High over Idaho just yet, but things like that certainly pique my interest. That's a lot different than a high over Detroit.

I am getting a little concerned about how the trees here are going to react. The pecans, bradford pears, and my Valencia Orange tree are starting to bloom out. If we get another freeze they will be in for a shock.

I heard this morning that some growers are icing down their plants/trees to keep them from blooming. I don't think it is on a large scale. But interesting concept. It might help in tricking the trees in going back to dormancy.

That's interesting. I bet a bunch of big nursery operations subscribe to private weather services much like energy , transportation and agriculture operations do.


The trees down here are starting to bloom (mainly Ash), EXCEPT the Mesquite trees. I've heard many of stories about the Mesquite being a good indicator about spring being in the air.

[Air Force Met]

The trees down here are starting to bloom (mainly Ash), EXCEPT the Mesquite trees. I've heard many of stories about the Mesquite being a good indicator about spring being in the air.

My peach tree started blooming early last week.

[Johnny]

And so did my apple tree.

[Portastorm]

It's not a dramatic change and I know it is only one run of a medium-range model, but the 12z GFS looks colder to me next week than the 0z run was. Then again, I'm the doofus who scared everyone this morning blubbering about a phantom 1066 high in Idaho ... so maybe someone else can look at this run and give their thoughts!

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[weatherrabbit_tx]

I still don't think we'll get the brunt of it at least in the beginning, I still think the brunt of it goes east, but some things are showing-up that may open the door for Texas mid-to-late February.

I'm not sold on the High over Idaho just yet, but things like that certainly pique my interest. That's a lot different than a high over Detroit.

I am getting a little concerned about how the trees here are going to react. The pecans, bradford pears, and my Valencia Orange tree are starting to bloom out. If we get another freeze they will be in for a shock.

I heard this morning that some growers are icing down their plants/trees to keep them from blooming. I don't think it is on a large scale. But interesting concept. It might help in tricking the trees in going back to dormancy.

That's interesting. I bet a bunch of big nursery operations subscribe to private weather services much like energy , transportation and agriculture operations do.


The trees down here are starting to bloom (mainly Ash), EXCEPT the Mesquite trees. I've heard many of stories about the Mesquite being a good indicator about spring being in the air.

ditto on the mesquite trees, grew up around one when I was living near the coast, didnt that thing bloom late march or april, might the pecan trees too.

[Portastorm]

The new Climate Prediction Center numbers are out for Feb. 1, and it looks like the bottom will be falling out of our temperatures for much of the eastern two-thirds of the CONUS after February 7th. And yes, this includes much of us in Texas!

This link will show you the predicted 6-to-10 day and 8-to-14 day forecasts:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ns/610day/

[gboudx]

I don't like that precip prediction.

[Tyler]

Cold weather, here we come...

[Air Force Met]

I don't like that precip prediction.

That's what you get when you have a large ridge into AK and a deep trough over the US. There's no oeverrunning to be had...no cut-offs over the Baja...just polar flow bringing in cold/dry air.

BTW...anyone look at the insanity that us the 12z ensembles?

They keep getting colder with each run. The high is MASSIVE over AK and the trough is deep over the southeast.

For the naysayers...we are no longer talking about 2 weeks out now...the first shots come in early next week...but again I say those first shots go into the east (and I have been saying this for a long time...so no change).

The interesting thing about the runs is the low zonal pattern hangs around for a LOOOOONG time....the ridge begins to build in 132 hrs and it sticks around through the end of the run with the longwave trof actually working back west some. I have also noticed some training of high pressures setting up that will begin to drain the air from Siberia over the pole.

So...there is n odoubt...the pattern WILL change. The first discharges of arctic air will go into the east and then the rest of the country will get in on the action later in the period.

The football can be kicked. If the amplification of the pattern does NOT take place...this will go down as one of the largest model busts in history. The GFS is now on 13 runs in a row calling for this pattern at the same time (the start on the 6th/7th and the major by the 11th), the canadian is on board...big time...almost matching the GFS...the JMA is right on track with a big 1048mb high along the leeside of the Canadian Rockies in 192 hours...and a big ridge over wester Canada...and even the Nogaps see the pattern swing...as does the Euro.

The intense cold air advection associated with the arcitic air coming south will just enhance the pattern...so...if it does NOT occur...every model we have will have busted...and every indicator we have will also have busted.

Looking at the data...I have no choice but to say the arctic air is on teh way and if you are in the central plains to northeast...get ready for some cold cold air. It remains to be seen exactly how much below normal it will drop temps in the south or southeast.

As I said 3 weeks ago...the cold air is coming...somebody is gonna get it...and now we know who will get the brunt of it first...it's just a waiting game for the rest of us.

[MiamiensisWx]

Do you think southern Florida will get some fairly cool and dry air from these pattern changes, Air Force Met?

[Tyler]

That's what you get when you have a large ridge into AK and a deep trough over the US. There's no oeverrunning to be had...no cut-offs over the Baja...just polar flow bringing in cold/dry air.

BTW...anyone look at the insanity that us the 12z ensembles?

They keep getting colder with each run. The high is MASSIVE over AK and the trough is deep over the southeast.

For the naysayers...we are no longer talking about 2 weeks out now...the first shots come in early next week...but again I say those first shots go into the east (and I have been saying this for a long time...so no change).

The interesting thing about the runs is the low zonal pattern hangs around for a LOOOOONG time....the ridge begins to build in 132 hrs and it sticks around through the end of the run with the longwave trof actually working back west some. I have also noticed some training of high pressures setting up that will begin to drain the air from Siberia over the pole.

So...there is n odoubt...the pattern WILL change. The first discharges of arctic air will go into the east and then the rest of the country will get in on the action later in the period.

The football can be kicked. If the amplification of the pattern does NOT take place...this will go down as one of the largest model busts in history. The GFS is now on 13 runs in a row calling for this pattern at the same time (the start on the 6th/7th and the major by the 11th), the canadian is on board...big time...almost matching the GFS...the JMA is right on track with a big 1048mb high along the leeside of the Canadian Rockies in 192 hours...and a big ridge over wester Canada...and even the Nogaps see the pattern swing...as does the Euro.

The intense cold air advection associated with the arcitic air coming south will just enhance the pattern...so...if it does NOT occur...every model we have will have busted...and every indicator we have will also have busted.

Looking at the data...I have no choice but to say the arctic air is on teh way and if you are in the central plains to northeast...get ready for some cold cold air. It remains to be seen exactly how much below normal it will drop temps in the south or southeast.

As I said 3 weeks ago...the cold air is coming...somebody is gonna get it...and now we know who will get the brunt of it first...it's just a waiting game for the rest of us.

AFM, GREAT analysis. Can't thank you enough. So basically, there will be a first shot of arctic air that will slide to the east, but we will still get a piece of that, then the brunt of the second shot could slide south towards us...

12z GFS and its ensembles are really interesting.

[Portastorm]

(Portastorm is wringing his hands gleefully, seeing that the esteemed Air Force Met is on board)

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep... very good analysis!