gboudx wrote:I don't like that precip prediction.

That's what you get when you have a large ridge into AK and a deep trough over the US. There's no oeverrunning to be had...no cut-offs over the Baja...just polar flow bringing in cold/dry air.
BTW...anyone look at the insanity that us the 12z ensembles?
They keep getting colder with each run. The high is MASSIVE over AK and the trough is deep over the southeast.
For the naysayers...we are no longer talking about 2 weeks out now...the first shots come in early next week...but again I say those first shots go into the east (and I have been saying this for a long time...so no change).
The interesting thing about the runs is the low zonal pattern hangs around for a LOOOOONG time....the ridge begins to build in 132 hrs and it sticks around through the end of the run with the longwave trof actually working back west some. I have also noticed some training of high pressures setting up that will begin to drain the air from Siberia over the pole.
So...there is n odoubt...the pattern WILL change. The first discharges of arctic air will go into the east and then the rest of the country will get in on the action later in the period.
The football can be kicked. If the amplification of the pattern does NOT take place...this will go down as one of the largest model busts in history. The GFS is now on 13 runs in a row calling for this pattern at the same time (the start on the 6th/7th and the major by the 11th), the canadian is on board...big time...almost matching the GFS...the JMA is right on track with a big 1048mb high along the leeside of the Canadian Rockies in 192 hours...and a big ridge over wester Canada...and even the Nogaps see the pattern swing...as does the Euro.
The intense cold air advection associated with the arcitic air coming south will just enhance the pattern...so...if it does NOT occur...every model we have will have busted...and every indicator we have will also have busted.
Looking at the data...I have no choice but to say the arctic air is on teh way and if you are in the central plains to northeast...get ready for some cold cold air. It remains to be seen exactly how much below normal it will drop temps in the south or southeast.
As I said 3 weeks ago...the cold air is coming...somebody is gonna get it...and now we know who will get the brunt of it first...it's just a waiting game for the rest of us.