Texas Winter 2022-2023

[TropicalTundra]

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/rtma-anl/scentus/t2m_f/1674952200-FiIV6D8ZZgw.png

That looks slightly behind. Northern parts of TX panhandle are already at freezing. All the other Hi-Res models behind as well.

[orangeblood]

Negatives in Nebraska. You love to see it.

Always a warning sign!!

[txtwister78]

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/rtma-anl/scentus/t2m_f/1674952200-FiIV6D8ZZgw.png

That looks slightly behind. Northern parts of TX panhandle are already at freezing. All the other Hi-Res models behind as well.

Updates every 15 mins but Dalhart observation was reporting 43 degrees at 653 PM but yes it looks like the freezing line is into far western Oklahoma and approaching TX border/ northern Panhandle.

The front more than likely will be a little faster than Hi-Res models indicate but the key now is temp trends in my opinion. That will have far greater impacts than speed of the front.

[Gotwood]

https://images.weatherbell.com/analysis/rtma-anl/scentus/t2m_f/1674952200-FiIV6D8ZZgw.png

That looks slightly behind. Northern parts of TX panhandle are already at freezing. All the other Hi-Res models behind as well.

The front is ahead of schedule it appears. Idk if that will make much of an impact or not.

[Gotwood]

HRRR starts laying the ice down pretty thick by Monday evening.

[txtwister78]

Temp wise behind the front (most important) I'm seeing about a 2-3 degree difference between the 18z and 0z (slightly colder) run of the HRRR extended.

[txtwister78]

Not really being discussed but man that's cold with the wind factored in.

[Ntxw]

That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.

[Iceresistance]

That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.

0z NAM gives DFW a nasty surprise.

[Iceresistance]

Cold Front has just made it to I-40 in Oklahoma.

[bubba hotep]

Monday evening to Tuesday morning is the dicey period for DFW and really much of the region along and west of I-35 from NTX to C-TX. The difference between 30-32 vs 27-30 can be impactful. It'll be a light freezing drizzle but we know the drill, it's these little things causing the issue because people underestimate it.

Wednesday morning could be worse according to CMC and it’s Ensembles with higher precip potential

Monday night into Tuesday morning looks like freezing drizzle or light freezing rain but QPF is pretty low across most of the models. The vast majority of the QPF falls Tuesday night - Thursday. FWD bumped my point forecast for Wednesday morning from 32F to 34F with the afternoon package. Tuesday afternoon is when the Euro/GFS really start to go the other way vs the colder CMC.

[orangeblood]

That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.

Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex

[Ntxw]

That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.

Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex

Euro/GFS warms us up to mid 40s Monday. Wonderful isn't it?

[Haris]

Yea NWS better up the game, 0z nam coming in another 5F colder from 18z. Mid 30s by tomorrow. The direction is clear on this!!

[TropicalTundra]

That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.

0z NAM gives DFW a nasty surprise.

People are going to need to watch out tomorrow for sure. Rain rolling in and so is the cold. NAM has the cold farther south tomorrow afternoon so there’s a chance for icing. Don’t think Metroplex will be hit, though.

[harp]

I can’t believe all this cold air won’t be able to punch through to Louisiana!!! Arrrggghhh!!!

[orangeblood]

That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.

Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex

Euro/GFS warms us up to mid 40s Monday. Wonderful isn't it?

The laughing stock of the weather community, somewhat maddening as a tax payor that these issues continue year after year

[Ntxw]

Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex

Euro/GFS warms us up to mid 40s Monday. Wonderful isn't it?

The laughing stock of the weather community, somewhat maddening as a tax payor that these issues continue year after year

They struggle with cold air damming. This is a known fact. Whether it is resolution or too much emphasis on the upper flow, whatever the reason it is a weakness. If we were talking polar air mass with weaker HP, maybe.

[Iceresistance]

I can’t believe all this cold air won’t be able to punch through to Louisiana!!! Arrrggghhh!!!

Louisiana will get a glancing blow of this cold air, the western side is trending colder on the models.

[Ntxw]

Nam trends.