That looks slightly behind. Northern parts of TX panhandle are already at freezing. All the other Hi-Res models behind as well.
Texas Winter 2022-2023
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- TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
That looks slightly behind. Northern parts of TX panhandle are already at freezing. All the other Hi-Res models behind as well.
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
gpsnowman wrote:Negatives in Nebraska. You love to see it.
Always a warning sign!!
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
TropicalTundra wrote:
That looks slightly behind. Northern parts of TX panhandle are already at freezing. All the other Hi-Res models behind as well.
Updates every 15 mins but Dalhart observation was reporting 43 degrees at 653 PM but yes it looks like the freezing line is into far western Oklahoma and approaching TX border/ northern Panhandle.
The front more than likely will be a little faster than Hi-Res models indicate but the key now is temp trends in my opinion. That will have far greater impacts than speed of the front.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
TropicalTundra wrote:
That looks slightly behind. Northern parts of TX panhandle are already at freezing. All the other Hi-Res models behind as well.
The front is ahead of schedule it appears. Idk if that will make much of an impact or not.
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Temp wise behind the front (most important) I'm seeing about a 2-3 degree difference between the 18z and 0z (slightly colder) run of the HRRR extended.
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- txtwister78
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Not really being discussed but man that's cold with the wind factored in.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.
0z NAM gives DFW a nasty surprise.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cold Front has just made it to I-40 in Oklahoma.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:Monday evening to Tuesday morning is the dicey period for DFW and really much of the region along and west of I-35 from NTX to C-TX. The difference between 30-32 vs 27-30 can be impactful. It'll be a light freezing drizzle but we know the drill, it's these little things causing the issue because people underestimate it.
Wednesday morning could be worse according to CMC and it’s Ensembles with higher precip potential
Monday night into Tuesday morning looks like freezing drizzle or light freezing rain but QPF is pretty low across most of the models. The vast majority of the QPF falls Tuesday night - Thursday. FWD bumped my point forecast for Wednesday morning from 32F to 34F with the afternoon package. Tuesday afternoon is when the Euro/GFS really start to go the other way vs the colder CMC.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.
Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.
Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex
Euro/GFS warms us up to mid 40s Monday. Wonderful isn't it?
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Yea NWS better up the game, 0z nam coming in another 5F colder from 18z. Mid 30s by tomorrow. The direction is clear on this!!
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- TropicalTundra
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Iceresistance wrote:Ntxw wrote:That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.
0z NAM gives DFW a nasty surprise.
People are going to need to watch out tomorrow for sure. Rain rolling in and so is the cold. NAM has the cold farther south tomorrow afternoon so there’s a chance for icing. Don’t think Metroplex will be hit, though.
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Summer's for hibernation, Winter’s my vacation
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
Please don't use my posts as forecast, I'm a complete meteorology noob! I just like cold weather, alright?
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I can’t believe all this cold air won’t be able to punch through to Louisiana!!! Arrrggghhh!!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:That 0z HRRR is definitely much more close to Rgem/NAM/CMC. DFW barely gets to freezing Monday. You could even say HRRR is colder initially than the crazy Canadian.
Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex
Euro/GFS warms us up to mid 40s Monday. Wonderful isn't it?
The laughing stock of the weather community, somewhat maddening as a tax payor that these issues continue year after year
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:orangeblood wrote:
Scattered moderate to heavy frz rain with temps 27-29F across metroplex
Euro/GFS warms us up to mid 40s Monday. Wonderful isn't it?
The laughing stock of the weather community, somewhat maddening as a tax payor that these issues continue year after year
They struggle with cold air damming. This is a known fact. Whether it is resolution or too much emphasis on the upper flow, whatever the reason it is a weakness. If we were talking polar air mass with weaker HP, maybe.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- Iceresistance
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
harp wrote:I can’t believe all this cold air won’t be able to punch through to Louisiana!!! Arrrggghhh!!!
Louisiana will get a glancing blow of this cold air, the western side is trending colder on the models.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Nam trends.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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