Texas Winter 2022-2023

[Ntxw]

Took a composite of the CPC d8 analogs (minus prior to 1979 since source for mapping doesn't include) and it's really not that hard a forecast. Just the details. We can probably expect a trend southward from the composite. Compared to the latest GEFS.

[orangeblood]

There’s no reason for us to think this can’t produce something historic. Literally every sign that I possibly know of is pointing towards it. Now will it happen is the million dollar question. I think it will but we just don’t know the extent yet.

The only hesitation is, December is really early in the winter. The best quality of cold tends to happen in January and Feb. There isn't -50s or -60s in Canada to deliver. But with a good driver pattern you'll get the most of whatever is up there.

December can deliver though…with this Upper Level pattern, lowest sun angle of the year and the glacier being laid down across the northern US this coming week, this pattern is arguably a better longer duration setup than Feb 2021, 22

[Texas Snow]

Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!

Where are you seeing that?

[Cpv17]

Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!

Where are you seeing that?

Larry Cosgrove has said this and the Euro weeklies have implied this as well. Middle of January there should be a thaw. After that the cold should reload.

[Texas Snow]

Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!

Where are you seeing that?

Larry Cosgrove has said this and the Euro weeklies have implied this as well. Middle of January there should be a thaw. After that the cold should reload.

Gracias


Gettin some good rain here at the homestead!

[gpsnowman]

There’s no reason for us to think this can’t produce something historic. Literally every sign that I possibly know of is pointing towards it. Now will it happen is the million dollar question. I think it will but we just don’t know the extent yet.

The only hesitation is, December is really early in the winter. The best quality of cold tends to happen in January and Feb. There isn't -50s or -60s in Canada to deliver. But with a good driver pattern you'll get the most of whatever is up there.

December can deliver though…with this Upper Level pattern, lowest sun angle of the year and the glacier being laid down across the northern US this coming week, this pattern is arguably a better longer duration setup than Feb 2021, 22

Yep December 1983 sure did. I was a boy in San Antonio during that outbreak so I wouldn't mind a repeat in my middle aged years. Bring on a long duration event covering Christmas on into the New Year!!

[Itryatgolf]

I believe there is some decent cold in Siberia that can be tapped and sent our way. That -wpo/epo connection

[Ghost0321]

I don’t really care how cold it gets as long as we get rid of these nasty 70s with high humidity

[Iceresistance]

I don’t really care how cold it gets as long as we get rid of these nasty 70s with high humidity

Welcome to the team!

[ThunderSleetDreams]

I believe there is some decent cold in Siberia that can be tapped and sent our way. That -wpo/epo connection

Look at the latest H5 for Wednesday on the Euro. You can see some of that Siberian air threading the needle over here.

[Itryatgolf]

I believe there is some decent cold in Siberia that can be tapped and sent our way. That -wpo/epo connection

Look at the latest H5 for Wednesday on the Euro. You can see some of that Siberian air threading the needle over here.

I want to see a pattern supporting winter storms in the southern plains and mid south so we can have something to track

[rwfromkansas]

Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!

Where are you seeing that?

Cosgrove is saying this (well, about a relaxation in January implying a reload later, but that's as far as he goes...)

I think he's just speculating, but it wouldn't be surprising. Those who promote a cycling hypothesis also are saying the same effectively with a relaxation in January followed by cold, even into March. I'm skeptical of this method, but it's consistent.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1601003416926715904

[txtwister78]

Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!

Where are you seeing that?

Cosgrove is saying this (well, about a relaxation in January implying a reload later, but that's as far as he goes...)

I think he's just speculating, but it wouldn't be surprising. Those who promote a cycling hypothesis also are saying the same effectively with a relaxation in January followed by cold, even into March. I'm skeptical of this method, but it's consistent.

I think you watch the EPO (at least for us). The weeklies have it going positive just after the New Year and so that would support the relaxation prediction he's implying. Now whether that means this pattern reloads into late January or Feb is anyone's guess this far out. I think as long as you keep that -AO going then it's certainly possible.

[gpsnowman]

https://twitter.com/mikemorgankfor/status/1601003416926715904?s=46&t=BxiVrjuyK17IDG1MYDgSCw

Wow those are bold words for 11 days out. Rarely do you see a local met got out on a limb that far out. If OKC gets all that what will DFW get???

[Brent]

Our TV met just mentioned it could be our first real winter and lets remember its technically snowed twice already and we barely got above freezing another day though we've yet to have an icy commute or anything

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/spann/status/1601067256498294785

[Iceresistance]

 https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1601135462831181825

[HockeyTx82]

Looks like SPC dropped the SVR weather for NTX and Oklahoma and and going for east of DFW now. What changed?

[Iceresistance]

Looks like SPC dropped the SVR weather for NTX and Oklahoma and and going fir east of DFW now. What changed?

Setup may have become more unfavorable for Next Monday, but Next Tuesday