Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Took a composite of the CPC d8 analogs (minus prior to 1979 since source for mapping doesn't include) and it's really not that hard a forecast. Just the details. We can probably expect a trend southward from the composite. Compared to the latest GEFS.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:There’s no reason for us to think this can’t produce something historic. Literally every sign that I possibly know of is pointing towards it. Now will it happen is the million dollar question. I think it will but we just don’t know the extent yet.
The only hesitation is, December is really early in the winter. The best quality of cold tends to happen in January and Feb. There isn't -50s or -60s in Canada to deliver. But with a good driver pattern you'll get the most of whatever is up there.
December can deliver though…with this Upper Level pattern, lowest sun angle of the year and the glacier being laid down across the northern US this coming week, this pattern is arguably a better longer duration setup than Feb 2021, 22
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- Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!
Where are you seeing that?
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Texas Snow wrote:Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!
Where are you seeing that?
Larry Cosgrove has said this and the Euro weeklies have implied this as well. Middle of January there should be a thaw. After that the cold should reload.
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- Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Cpv17 wrote:Texas Snow wrote:Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!
Where are you seeing that?
Larry Cosgrove has said this and the Euro weeklies have implied this as well. Middle of January there should be a thaw. After that the cold should reload.
Gracias
Gettin some good rain here at the homestead!
Last edited by Texas Snow on Thu Dec 08, 2022 9:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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"Don't let wishcastin get in the way of your forecastin"
Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
orangeblood wrote:Ntxw wrote:Cpv17 wrote:There’s no reason for us to think this can’t produce something historic. Literally every sign that I possibly know of is pointing towards it. Now will it happen is the million dollar question. I think it will but we just don’t know the extent yet.
The only hesitation is, December is really early in the winter. The best quality of cold tends to happen in January and Feb. There isn't -50s or -60s in Canada to deliver. But with a good driver pattern you'll get the most of whatever is up there.
December can deliver though…with this Upper Level pattern, lowest sun angle of the year and the glacier being laid down across the northern US this coming week, this pattern is arguably a better longer duration setup than Feb 2021, 22
Yep December 1983 sure did. I was a boy in San Antonio during that outbreak so I wouldn't mind a repeat in my middle aged years. Bring on a long duration event covering Christmas on into the New Year!!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I believe there is some decent cold in Siberia that can be tapped and sent our way. That -wpo/epo connection
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
I don’t really care how cold it gets as long as we get rid of these nasty 70s with high humidity
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Ghost0321 wrote:I don’t really care how cold it gets as long as we get rid of these nasty 70s with high humidity
Welcome to the team!
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- ThunderSleetDreams
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Itryatgolf wrote:I believe there is some decent cold in Siberia that can be tapped and sent our way. That -wpo/epo connection
Look at the latest H5 for Wednesday on the Euro. You can see some of that Siberian air threading the needle over here.
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#NeverSummer
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
ThunderSleetDreams wrote:Itryatgolf wrote:I believe there is some decent cold in Siberia that can be tapped and sent our way. That -wpo/epo connection
Look at the latest H5 for Wednesday on the Euro. You can see some of that Siberian air threading the needle over here.
I want to see a pattern supporting winter storms in the southern plains and mid south so we can have something to track
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Texas Snow wrote:Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!
Where are you seeing that?
Cosgrove is saying this (well, about a relaxation in January implying a reload later, but that's as far as he goes...)
I think he's just speculating, but it wouldn't be surprising. Those who promote a cycling hypothesis also are saying the same effectively with a relaxation in January followed by cold, even into March. I'm skeptical of this method, but it's consistent.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
rwfromkansas wrote:Texas Snow wrote:Then it's going to reload, and launch the "Big One" in February!
Where are you seeing that?
Cosgrove is saying this (well, about a relaxation in January implying a reload later, but that's as far as he goes...)
I think he's just speculating, but it wouldn't be surprising. Those who promote a cycling hypothesis also are saying the same effectively with a relaxation in January followed by cold, even into March. I'm skeptical of this method, but it's consistent.
I think you watch the EPO (at least for us). The weeklies have it going positive just after the New Year and so that would support the relaxation prediction he's implying. Now whether that means this pattern reloads into late January or Feb is anyone's guess this far out. I think as long as you keep that -AO going then it's certainly possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Wow those are bold words for 11 days out. Rarely do you see a local met got out on a limb that far out. If OKC gets all that what will DFW get???
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Our TV met just mentioned it could be our first real winter and lets remember its technically snowed twice already and we barely got above freezing another day though we've yet to have an icy commute or anything
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#neversummer
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
Looks like SPC dropped the SVR weather for NTX and Oklahoma and and going for east of DFW now. What changed?
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Fri Dec 09, 2022 7:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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Re: Texas Winter 2022-2023
HockeyTx82 wrote:Looks like SPC dropped the SVR weather for NTX and Oklahoma and and going fir east of DFW now. What changed?
Setup may have become more unfavorable for Next Monday, but Next Tuesday
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
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