Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Brent]

Right on cue our met up here even posted about another threat midweek next week

These things always shift NW don't they?

[utpmg]

So, I'm leaving Austin Saturday for 5 days of camping in the Big Bend area. (I'm gonna leave my water off!) What I've been gathering so far is that out there the forecasts have been consistently dry over that period, looks like lows maybe 20-25 at worst now. More concerned with wind, but it seems that's mostly Saturday night Sunday morning after FROPA.

We are going to Alpine to visit friends this weekend. Headed to the park Saturday, probably hike in the Basin and maybe head across the border to Boquillas. Perhaps our paths will cross.

Primitive camping for two nights thence 3 nights in the interior of Big Bend Ranch SP.

[txtwister78]

18z Euro AI

[bubba hotep]

18z Euro AI

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737050400/1737460800-4hELICnTeK8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/total_precip_inch/1737050400/1737547200-SWsvNeVcMVo.png

Somewhere on the northern fringe, there will be a combo of adequate moisture and cold air to produce some high ratios.

[Ntxw]

18z Euro AI

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737050400/1737460800-4hELICnTeK8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/total_precip_inch/1737050400/1737547200-SWsvNeVcMVo.png

Somewhere on the northern fringe, there will be a combo of adequate moisture and cold air to produce some high ratios.

Powdered sugar they say.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

18z Euro AI

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737050400/1737460800-4hELICnTeK8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/total_precip_inch/1737050400/1737547200-SWsvNeVcMVo.png

Somewhere on the northern fringe, there will be a combo of adequate moisture and cold air to produce some high ratios.

Powdered sugar they say.

If that coastal low can hit the sweet spot and arc a bit, you could see someone on the NW side of that shield get absolutely pummeled in SETX. Especially rural parts from the western viewing areas up through the northern burbs of Houston.

It wouldn’t shock me if we get a Euro solution that someone sees 10 plus.

[Cpv17]

18z Euro AI

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737050400/1737460800-4hELICnTeK8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/total_precip_inch/1737050400/1737547200-SWsvNeVcMVo.png

Where is the 540 line on here?

[txtwister78]

18z Euro AI

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737050400/1737460800-4hELICnTeK8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/total_precip_inch/1737050400/1737547200-SWsvNeVcMVo.png

Where is the 540 line on here?

[Cpv17]

18z Euro AI

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737050400/1737460800-4hELICnTeK8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/total_precip_inch/1737050400/1737547200-SWsvNeVcMVo.png

Where is the 540 line on here?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/thck_1000-500/1737050400/1737482400-y1HYY4Mj02E.png

Thanks. Looks pretty good. Hoping it can sag a few miles further south just to be safe.

[jasons2k]

It’s been a long day and just now taking a peek at things. Still coming together about like I’m expecting. No changes in my thinking at this time.

[captainbarbossa19]

Where is the 540 line on here?

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/thck_1000-500/1737050400/1737482400-y1HYY4Mj02E.png

Thanks. Looks pretty good. Hoping it can sag a few miles further south just to be safe.

You can still get snow being south of the 540 line. It is just an average of the air density and temperature between 1000mb to 500. Some might melt and refreeze as sleet, but as long as the melting layer is minimal, you can still get quite a bit of snow.

[sphelps8681]

When is the next model run?

[Ntxw]

When is the next model run?

ICON will start running soon and be done within the next hour or so, then it's GFS/Canadian once that's complete. We'll see the Euro about an hour or so after that.

[Nederlander]

18z Euro AI

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/t850_mslp_prcp6hr/1737050400/1737460800-4hELICnTeK8.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/total_precip_inch/1737050400/1737547200-SWsvNeVcMVo.png

Where is the 540 line on here?

What’s the significance of this?

[Ralph's Weather]

Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.
I am rooting for the Canadian which has been very consistent with hammering the middle sections.

[Cpv17]

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-aifs-all/tx/thck_1000-500/1737050400/1737482400-y1HYY4Mj02E.png

Thanks. Looks pretty good. Hoping it can sag a few miles further south just to be safe.

You can still get snow being south of the 540 line. It is just an average of the air density and temperature between 1000mb to 500. Some might melt and refreeze as sleet, but as long as the melting layer is minimal, you can still get quite a bit of snow.

Yeah, that’s what I was thinking cuz I remember being south of it before and receiving snow. I would just prefer to be as close to it as possible just to be safe lol

[Ntxw]

Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.

We're really looking for the northern stream to deliver. The area basically from Waco to Lufkin to Shreveport line on north is looking for the amped solution for a more saturated atmosphere and an invigorated shortwave coming in from the north. High ratios will be fun and can overperform but a flatter wave won't cut it.

Those below that line have the qpf treasury, the more qpf the models trend the more impact, with some warmth maybe near the 700mb layer closer to the coast for snow/sleet etc due to that surge in moisture. That's hard to predict this far ahead. But this is a rare event for down there and the models have been fairly consistent that region sees something at least minus a few outlier runs.

The region where these two meet will likely get a significant snow storm with just right temps and decent qpf, right now central TX -> Toledo bend but this can shift.

[Ralph's Weather]

Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.

We're really looking for the northern stream to deliver. The area basically from Waco to Lufkin to Shreveport line on north is looking for the amped solution for a more saturated atmosphere and an invigorated shortwave coming in from the north. High ratios will be fun and can overperform but a flatter wave won't cut it.

Those below that line have the qpf treasury, the more qpf the models trend the more impact, with some warmth maybe near the 700mb layer closer to the coast for snow/sleet etc due to that surge in moisture. That's hard to predict this far ahead. But this is a rare event for down there and the models have been fairly consistent that region sees something at least minus a few outlier runs.

The region where these two meet will likely get a significant snow storm with just right temps and decent qpf, right now central TX -> Toledo bend but this can shift.

100% agree on this. Along and south of I10 could see a solid mix. I10 north into Deep E TX could see moderate to heavy wet snow. I20 will be powder if precip can make it up that far north.

[orangeblood]

Lets keep this moving north without robbing our friends to the south of their winter fun!!

I'm hoping for similar to last week with a good enough phase and strong enough northern stream to expand the NW side significantly without robbing the SE side too much. Would suck for us in between I30 and I10 to get the shaft. Though looks like a few more chances over the next couple weeks so I'm confident we get ours eventually.

We're really looking for the northern stream to deliver. The area basically from Waco to Lufkin to Shreveport line on north is looking for the amped solution for a more saturated atmosphere and an invigorated shortwave coming in from the north. High ratios will be fun and can overperform but a flatter wave won't cut it.

Those below that line have the qpf treasury, the more qpf the models trend the more impact, with some warmth maybe near the 700mb layer closer to the coast for snow/sleet etc due to that surge in moisture. That's hard to predict this far ahead. But this is a rare event for down there and the models have been fairly consistent that region sees something at least minus a few outlier runs.

The region where these two meet will likely get a significant snow storm with just right temps and decent qpf, right now central TX -> Toledo bend but this can shift.

Or the energy on the back side of the LW trough disconnects from it, similar to what the Euro AI is showing. It even goes neutral to almost negative tilt as it moves east across Texas. That’s how we could get a much bigger storm system out of this setup

Euro AI right after the energy gets left behind


Euro still has the energy somewhat attached and strung out, making for a smaller system

[gpsnowman]

Since most of the action is south of us with below freezing temps, I'm thinking the forecasted temps are too high for the DFW area. With the strength of the cold air push I think temps should trend down in the next couple days. Which makes me wonder about my drive home Monday evening.