Texas Winter 2010-2011

[MississippiWx]

Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less.

That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...

[orangeblood]

Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less.

Did you not learn a lesson with last week's storm and model QPF ? Sometimes they don't have a clue. The most important thing is that GFS now has the cold air further south.

[downsouthman1]

Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less.

Did you not learn a lesson with last week's storm and model QPF ? Sometimes they don't have a clue. The most important thing is that GFS now has the cold air further south.

Probably not far south enough for me though.

[Peanut432]

Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less.

That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...

How does .25 QPF equate to 4-6 inches? Do you think the storm will slide father south.

[orangeblood]

Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less.

That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...

How does .25 QPF equate to 4-6 inches? Do you think the storm will slide father south.

GFS is showing anywhere from 0.30-.45 across the majority of north Texas and if ratios are 15-1 or even 12-1 that 4-6 inch total is not a bad estimate at all.

[cheezyWXguy]

Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less.

That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...

How does .25 QPF equate to 4-6 inches? Do you think the storm will slide father south.

The map shown on the previous page is not a cumulative qpf map, only qpf of that specific 6 hour interval. Overall, it appears the gfs is slowly moving back in the right direction, although they still likely dont really know whats going on.

[orangeblood]

Well the Canadian has almost completely lost the storm for Wednesday across North Texas... not quite sure what to think about that!!!

[Ntxw]

Well the Canadian has almost completely lost the storm for Wednesday across North Texas... not quite sure what to think about that!!!

Dry slot? Lol talk about strange, not sure what to think. Models are crazy.

[jerryh421]

Wednesday: Rain likely, mainly between noon and 4pm. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of freezing drizzle before midnight. Mostly cloudy and blustery, with a low around 26.

It would be nice if the cold air would get here faster, but at the same time ice wouldn't be a very good thing to have down here. Much rather have snow.

[orangeblood]

Well the Canadian has almost completely lost the storm for Wednesday across North Texas... not quite sure what to think about that!!!

Dry slot? Lol talk about strange, not sure what to think. Models are crazy.

Don't think it's a dry slot.. Just appears that it flattens the trough so much that upper level lift becomes nearly non-existent.

[downsouthman1]

It's been my experience that whenever multiple nearby NWSFOs pickup on a storm early & forecast snows many days in advance, that it rarely happens. I believe that's why they generally like to play wait & see.

[jerryh421]

If the moisture is expected to reach far south. Wouldn't that increase the chance for North Texas or is it the temperature to worry about?

[Texas2Florida]

Chick on Channel 5 said she only expects an inch or 2....but that if the L tracks south may be 3. Good reason to say 4-6 IMO. I'm thinking citywide shutdown again Wednesday PM until about noon on Thursday. No school Thursday.

[MississippiWx]

Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.

[downsouthman1]

Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.

WTH is goin on? None of this makes sense. This is way too much wafflin only a few? days before the event!

[orangeblood]

Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.

Where do you see that ? We're referring to what the model is showing for North Texas

[MississippiWx]

Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.

Where do you see that ? We're referring to what the model is showing for North Texas

I know, but wasn't it supposed to come through there on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maybe I looked at the wrong times, but I thought it said Wednesday and Wednesday night for you guys on this run.

[orangeblood]

Chick on Channel 5 said she only expects an inch or 2....but that if the L tracks south may be 3. Good reason to say 4-6 IMO. I'm thinking citywide shutdown again Wednesday PM until about noon on Thursday. No school Thursday.

If the storm did hit like the GFS is showing, school districts will have a real hard time making a decision about school on Wednesday. This storm would start in earnest while kids are heading to school.

[MississippiWx]

I know the GFS has it moving through North Texas at hour 66, while the CMC has it moving through at hour 90.

[orangeblood]

Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.

Where do you see that ? We're referring to what the model is showing for North Texas

I know, but wasn't it supposed to come through there on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maybe I looked at the wrong times, but I thought it said Wednesday and Wednesday night for you guys on this run.

No, I believe this was always a Wednesday early morning to afternoon event for North Texas