Texas Winter 2010-2011

Winter Weather Discussion

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MississippiWx
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Re:

#7521 Postby MississippiWx » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:20 pm

Turtle wrote:Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less. :grr:


That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...
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Re:

#7522 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:20 pm

Turtle wrote:Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less. :grr:


Did you not learn a lesson with last week's storm and model QPF ? Sometimes they don't have a clue. The most important thing is that GFS now has the cold air further south.
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Re: Re:

#7523 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:24 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Turtle wrote:Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less. :grr:


Did you not learn a lesson with last week's storm and model QPF ? Sometimes they don't have a clue. The most important thing is that GFS now has the cold air further south.


Probably not far south enough for me though. :grr:
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Re: Re:

#7524 Postby Peanut432 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:32 pm

MississippiWx wrote:
Turtle wrote:Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less. :grr:


That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...


How does .25 QPF equate to 4-6 inches? Do you think the storm will slide father south.
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Re: Re:

#7525 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:38 pm

Peanut432 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Turtle wrote:Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less. :grr:


That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...


How does .25 QPF equate to 4-6 inches? Do you think the storm will slide father south.


GFS is showing anywhere from 0.30-.45 across the majority of north Texas and if ratios are 15-1 or even 12-1 that 4-6 inch total is not a bad estimate at all.
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Re: Re:

#7526 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:44 pm

Peanut432 wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:
Turtle wrote:Wow, is the 00z GFS pretty much showing much less .25"? I think it's colder, but the moisture is much less. :grr:


That would be a good 4-6 inch snow for you, depending on ratios. Not much to be picky about there...


How does .25 QPF equate to 4-6 inches? Do you think the storm will slide father south.

The map shown on the previous page is not a cumulative qpf map, only qpf of that specific 6 hour interval. Overall, it appears the gfs is slowly moving back in the right direction, although they still likely dont really know whats going on.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7527 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:45 pm

Well the Canadian has almost completely lost the storm for Wednesday across North Texas... not quite sure what to think about that!!! :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7528 Postby Ntxw » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:48 pm

orangeblood wrote:Well the Canadian has almost completely lost the storm for Wednesday across North Texas... not quite sure what to think about that!!! :double:


Dry slot? Lol talk about strange, not sure what to think. Models are crazy.
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#7529 Postby jerryh421 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:49 pm

Wednesday: Rain likely, mainly between noon and 4pm. Cloudy and breezy, with a high near 52. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night: A slight chance of freezing drizzle before midnight. Mostly cloudy and blustery, with a low around 26.

It would be nice if the cold air would get here faster, but at the same time ice wouldn't be a very good thing to have down here. Much rather have snow. :(
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7530 Postby orangeblood » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:52 pm

Ntxw wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Well the Canadian has almost completely lost the storm for Wednesday across North Texas... not quite sure what to think about that!!! :double:


Dry slot? Lol talk about strange, not sure what to think. Models are crazy.


Don't think it's a dry slot.. Just appears that it flattens the trough so much that upper level lift becomes nearly non-existent.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7531 Postby downsouthman1 » Sun Feb 06, 2011 11:54 pm

It's been my experience that whenever multiple nearby NWSFOs pickup on a storm early & forecast snows many days in advance, that it rarely happens. I believe that's why they generally like to play wait & see.
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#7532 Postby jerryh421 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:00 am

If the moisture is expected to reach far south. Wouldn't that increase the chance for North Texas or is it the temperature to worry about?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7533 Postby Texas2Florida » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:01 am

Chick on Channel 5 said she only expects an inch or 2....but that if the L tracks south may be 3. Good reason to say 4-6 IMO. I'm thinking citywide shutdown again Wednesday PM until about noon on Thursday. No school Thursday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7534 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:01 am

Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7535 Postby downsouthman1 » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:05 am

MississippiWx wrote:Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.

WTH is goin on? None of this makes sense. This is way too much wafflin only a few? days before the event!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7536 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:09 am

MississippiWx wrote:Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.


Where do you see that ? We're referring to what the model is showing for North Texas
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7537 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:11 am

orangeblood wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.


Where do you see that ? We're referring to what the model is showing for North Texas


I know, but wasn't it supposed to come through there on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maybe I looked at the wrong times, but I thought it said Wednesday and Wednesday night for you guys on this run.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7538 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:12 am

Texas2Florida wrote:Chick on Channel 5 said she only expects an inch or 2....but that if the L tracks south may be 3. Good reason to say 4-6 IMO. I'm thinking citywide shutdown again Wednesday PM until about noon on Thursday. No school Thursday.


If the storm did hit like the GFS is showing, school districts will have a real hard time making a decision about school on Wednesday. This storm would start in earnest while kids are heading to school.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7539 Postby MississippiWx » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:13 am

I know the GFS has it moving through North Texas at hour 66, while the CMC has it moving through at hour 90.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#7540 Postby orangeblood » Mon Feb 07, 2011 12:14 am

MississippiWx wrote:
orangeblood wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:Seems like the CMC just pushed the timing back by almost a day.


Where do you see that ? We're referring to what the model is showing for North Texas


I know, but wasn't it supposed to come through there on Tuesday or Tuesday night. Maybe I looked at the wrong times, but I thought it said Wednesday and Wednesday night for you guys on this run.


No, I believe this was always a Wednesday early morning to afternoon event for North Texas
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