Winter 2010-11 for the Southern Plains

[BlueIce]

Well the first watch went up earlier for this event. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings on the models.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
353 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

ARZ001-002-010-011-OKZ054>070-301100-
/O.NEW.KTSA.WS.A.0002.110201T0000Z-110202T1300Z/
BENTON-CARROLL-WASHINGTON AR-MADISON-OSAGE-WASHINGTON OK-NOWATA-
CRAIG-OTTAWA-PAWNEE-TULSA-ROGERS-MAYES-DELAWARE-CREEK-OKFUSKEE-
OKMULGEE-WAGONER-CHEROKEE-ADAIR-MUSKOGEE-
353 PM CST SAT JAN 29 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM
WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...

FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...
* IN OKLAHOMA...WASHINGTON...WAGONER...OTTAWA...PAWNEE...
DELAWARE...CHEROKEE...ADAIR...CRAIG...NOWATA...CREEK...
OKFUSKEE...OKMULGEE...MUSKOGEE...TULSA...ROGERS...MAYES AND
OSAGE. IN ARKANSAS...BENTON...WASHINGTON...CARROLL AND MADISON.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
* A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MONDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
WINTER WEATHER IMPACTS WILL CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS...YET NOW
IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THIS POTENTIAL STORM.

* SNOW AND SLEET TOTALS FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. ADDITIONALLY...ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER
ICING EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

IMPACTS...
* ROADS...BRIDGES...AND OVERPASSES MAY BECOME SLICK AND HAZARDOUS
IN THE WATCH AREA...MAKING TRAVEL TREACHEROUS. POWER OUTAGES ARE
POSSIBLE.

* EXTREMELY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THIS STORM SYSTEM. ANY
PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES WOULD QUICKLY ESCALATE INTO A SHELTERING
RESPONSE.

DEFINITION...
* A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS HEAVY SNOW OR A SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SLEET IS EXPECTED IN THE WATCH AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Each MOS run continues to trend colder and colder. Tonight's 00z GFS MOS is impressive for sure.

On Wednesday, it is now showing a high temperature of just 8F in Tulsa and 11F in Oklahoma City!

[Metalicwx220]

Each MOS run continues to trend colder and colder. Tonight's 00z GFS MOS impressive for sure.

On Wednesday, it is now showing a high temperature of just 8F in Tulsa and 11F in Oklahoma City!

IS THAT A RECORD?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Each MOS run continues to trend colder and colder. Tonight's 00z GFS MOS impressive for sure.

On Wednesday, it is now showing a high temperature of just 8F in Tulsa and 11F in Oklahoma City!

IS THAT A RECORD?

For February 2nd, the record coldest high for Oklahoma City is 10F and in Tulsa it is 16F, so for OKC it would be close and for Tulsa it would break the daily record by a good margin.

The all-time record cold high for both cities is 2F though, so that record would remain safe.

[TwisterFanatic]

Each MOS run continues to trend colder and colder. Tonight's 00z GFS MOS impressive for sure.

On Wednesday, it is now showing a high temperature of just 8F in Tulsa and 11F in Oklahoma City!

That is just absolutely absurd

[BlueIce]

00z Nam Still looking good for Oklahoma City snow

[Turtle]

WSW up for south and central OK now.

[Peanut432]

12 nam looking better for western ok

[Metalicwx220]

Don't forget about a late December Arctic Outbreak. Even La Nina years can throw a curveball or two.

Edit to add: We had a lot of great discussions in various threats last Winter. I look forward to the return of our Pro Mets and Winter Weather Watchers in a few month after the Tropical Season.

How did you know that? LOl that post was in july

[srainhoutx]

Don't forget about a late December Arctic Outbreak. Even La Nina years can throw a curveball or two.

Edit to add: We had a lot of great discussions in various threats last Winter. I look forward to the return of our Pro Mets and Winter Weather Watchers in a few month after the Tropical Season.

How did you know that? LOl that post was in july

Excuse me?

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z NAM would be absolutely insane if it verified!

It is showing a large corridor of a foot or more of snow, with a band of 18+ inches that includes most of the states largest population zones..




The 12z GFS, on the other hand, is much more conservative; showing just a few inches of snow mixed with some ice for most of the state..




At the moment, I am inclined to believe that reality will wind up being somewhere in between the two model solutions.

[Metalicwx220]

Don't forget about a late December Arctic Outbreak. Even La Nina years can throw a curveball or two.

Edit to add: We had a lot of great discussions in various threats last Winter. I look forward to the return of our Pro Mets and Winter Weather Watchers in a few month after the Tropical Season.

How did you know that? LOl that post was in july

Excuse me?

How did you know their was going to be a late december arctic outbreak?

[Portastorm]

Metalicwx220, for your edification, that kind of question is probably better served through a PM and not clogging up the bandwith with a huge quote and a brief question. We have a potentially serious weather event unfolding for much of the nation and folks are looking for forecast/weather information on the event in real time.

[Metalicwx220]

Metalicwx220, for your edification, that kind of question is probably better served through a PM and not clogging up the bandwith with a huge quote and a brief question. We have a potentially serious weather event unfolding for much of the nation and folks are looking for forecast/weather information on the event in real time.

OK...

[PTPatrick]

From your friendly neighbors higher up the hill to your west in Denver, consider yourselves lucky! We are only getting a few inches out of this one and then its going to be below zero for a high for the first time in like 14 years! -3 tuesday :-P

[TwisterFanatic]

This could be a record setter. Pro-Mets around here using wording i have never seen them use. They're saying all of Oklahoma will see Major Winter Storm Impacts excluding far western Ok and The Panhandle.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z ECMWF is coming in closer to the NAM solution than the GFS solution. QPF values exceed an inch across OKC (1.20-1.40") in a sub-freezing airmass. With increasing snow ratios throughout the event, this would easily equate to 14-18+ inches of snow accumulation. Amazing..

[Ntxw]

The 12z ECMWF is coming in closer to the NAM solution than the GFS solution. QPF values exceed an inch across OKC (1.20-1.40") in a sub-freezing airmass. With increasing snow ratios throughout the event, this would easily equate to 14-18+ inches. Amazing..

That would definitely break the 14 inch storm record from 09 or at least tie it! Pretty incredible.

[TwisterFanatic]

You guys might get lucky and get all snow, but as it looks right now i could get significant icing.

[BlueIce]

The 12z ECMWF is coming in closer to the NAM solution than the GFS solution. QPF values exceed an inch across OKC (1.20-1.40") in a sub-freezing airmass. With increasing snow ratios throughout the event, this would easily equate to 14-18+ inches of snow accumulation. Amazing..

Ya looking at the text output from the ECMWF it looks like a whole day of freezing precip. With a total QPF of 1.4

And looking at some of the predicted wind gusts and sustained winds we might see a few blizzard warnings with this storm.