Texas Winter 2011-2012...

[orangeblood]

Something else worth mentioning ... the Arctic Oscillation values continue at very high (positive) levels. One of the analog months/years which matches a weak-moderate Nina with very high AO levels was December 1989.

Do y'all remember what happened here in Texas during that time, especially close to Christmas?!

Sorry to be a bearer of bad news but after doing some more research, the AO values leading up to the 1989 arctic outbreak were extreme to the negative side. Staying negative for the first 3 weeks of December that year and reaching almost - 3.60 around December 10th, right before the outbreak. It appears to me that it's extremely rare during strong positive AO's to have strong arctic outbreaks, imo.

[Portastorm]

Something else worth mentioning ... the Arctic Oscillation values continue at very high (positive) levels. One of the analog months/years which matches a weak-moderate Nina with very high AO levels was December 1989.

Do y'all remember what happened here in Texas during that time, especially close to Christmas?!

Sorry to be a bearer of bad news but after doing some more research, the AO values leading up to the 1989 arctic outbreak were extreme to the negative side. Staying negative for the first 3 weeks of December that year and reaching almost - 3.60 around December 10th, right before the outbreak. It appears to me that it's extremely rare during strong positive AO's to have strong arctic outbreaks, imo.

Not bad news at all ... but I feel like an id-jit now!

Sorry to get everyone excited for no reason. Portastorm needs to go to class to learn how to read historical indices charts better.

[Tireman4]

stinking pwc

[Portastorm]

stinking pwc

Too much Grey Goose, I suppose.

[Ntxw]

With the 18z GFS in seems like an active period is going to set up. Light rain/cool/damp conditions for this weekend with shower activity mostly in S Texas. Next week a strong storm will swing through the plains and open the doors for potentially significant cold beginning midweek. After that the jet stream remains active with systems likely traversing while the cold air is still in place. Survive the next several days to a week and we can go back into winter right on cue for the winter solstice! of course this is all model interpreted so it can change!

And of course on cue you can always count on the GFS the following weekend giving Texas it's first blizzard if only...



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[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Hey look ... I just posted it as one of those weather items where you read it and think "hmmm ... that's kinda interesting." Who knows if it will verify. December 1989 was such an extreme event that the odds of anything like that happening this year are pretty slim. Most of us may never see anything like that in our lifetime.

I remember hearing the same things about the Summer of 1980. Unfortunately, I saw another one like that in my lifetime. Speaking of which, what was the winter of 1980-1 like? I don't remember that one very much.

[Turtle]

18Z GFS looks great! It's showing about 10" of snow where I live. It is far off, but it's within 10 days now.

[Ntxw]

I found this interesting. The past few years has prompted the metroplex to order snow plows! Never thought I'd live to see this day lol. Who says it never snows in Texas! Seriously though we've been on a lucky run for snow.

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505245_162-57337800/first-snow-plows...

The Dallas-Fort Worth area is getting snow plows less than a year after an icy week that nearly paralyzed the region in the days before its first Super Bowl.

The area will get 29 snow plows -- 14 in Dallas and 15 for Fort Worth -- said Texas Department of Transportation spokesman Mark Pettit. He expects the plows, which will be hooked up to dump trucks, to be operational by the first of the year. Pettit did not know how much the plows would cost.

NTTA also ordered like 14 or so for the toll highways.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I stated much earlier in this thread that 1989 was one of those years where we were coming off of a strong La nina, and the values were just below normal status. Not sure if that means much much something to look at. Loving the 18z, lets hope for some consistency

[Rgv20]

This past two mornings we had back to back freezes in my backyard...Both morning we had low temperatures of 30F

This coming weekend it looks like the RGV has a good shot of seeing some beneficial rains

[Turtle]

0z GFS doesn't look as impressive as the 18z. Most places are at or under <1" for Texas. Hopefully the temps can go down 5-10 degrees.

[somethingfunny]

The 6z followed the 0z in keeping the 0°C line well to the north/west of Dallas for that December 18th event. Worth noting though, some sort of severe weather looks possible around December 15th.

And what peek into model la-la land would be complete without a possible White Christmas?



^ That's the 6z. The 0z and even the crazy 18z had nothing close to that, lol. But we can dream, can't we?

[ndale]

Looks like the gfs still wants to keep snow in the forecast next weekend from central Tx northward and westward but as someone on another thread says we don't want to get caught up in these models, especially this far out. I haven't seen any other models, does anyone know what they are showing for next weekend.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Question: Why is it that some 1044 Highs are colder than others? Does it have to do with the source region?

[DonWrk]

We just want it to keep showing snow at least nearby, no way it's pinpointed the snow right on location so as long as we can keep seeing this trend then we are in good shape.

[Portastorm]

Question: Why is it that some 1044 Highs are colder than others? Does it have to do with the source region?

What do you mean exactly? Colder in a particular location?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Question: Why is it that some 1044 Highs are colder than others? Does it have to do with the source region?

What do you mean exactly? Colder in a particular location?

Well it looks like the 1048 MB high expected to come in doesn't have as much cold air as other 1048 highs i've seen. Am i just seeing things? lol

[orangeblood]

After looking over today's 12Z model suites, it looks the biggest factor in whether we get a Texas winter storm next weekend is the strength of the southeast US ridge. If it's as strong as advertised, than most every system the next few weeks will go by to the north of this region but if not, look out, this could be a really nice pattern setting up for Texas winter weather lovers!!

[Portastorm]

Question: Why is it that some 1044 Highs are colder than others? Does it have to do with the source region?

What do you mean exactly? Colder in a particular location?

Well it looks like the 1048 MB high expected to come in doesn't have as much cold air as other 1048 highs i've seen. Am i just seeing things? lol

1048mb highs are pretty stout as far as high pressure goes in winter, although some of our classic Arctic outbreaks are ushered in by 1050 mb or higher cells.

As I understand it, you clued in earlier to one reason: source regions of the air. You may have a stout high coming down but if temps in western Canada are not all that cold (in comparison to their average temps), then certainly the air coming into the southern Plains won't be as cold as you might expect.

Something else touched upon ... snow cover ... is important as well. Snow cover in both western Canada and the Plains states.

Also, something which Wxman57 reminds us of every winter ... pay more attention to the 500mb pattern in the GFS runs and not so much the 850mb or surface level. That will clue you in to the potential pattern and dlievery of airmasses.

[Ntxw]

^ Very good points. Source region I've heard is very important. Also direction in which it traverses is important as well. 1048 is cold this time of year but aimed more towards the Midwest and Northeast since the SE ridge is providing a push the opposite way. Orangeblood makes a good case as well. We also don't want the SW lows to cutoff over Baja and sit there too long...It needs to come out all in one piece!!!

Something to keep in mind for January and February, so far this winter the southern stream energies have been the dominant features over the northern stream unlike last year. They have continuously tried to cut off and traveled in the same pattern as they have all fall