Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[jasons2k]

After Monday's storm looks like the cold air and storm track shifts north into the central plains. Could be winter cancel in Texas outside of the panhandle.

I certainly hope so. Monday it will be March, the beginning of the meteorological Spring, so it's about time this never-ending cold, dreary winter came to an end. Bring on Spring...the wildflowers, sun, shorts, and top-down weather for a change.

[Ntxw]

Well with the kind of winter we're in (Jan and Feb were actually warmer than average globally, with the arctic region warmer as well, but due to the blocking the cold shifted) I wouldn't let my guards down with the cold air until well into April. But in the immediate future, damp and cool streak looks to continue just not much in the way of snow and ice.

[southerngale]

After Monday's storm looks like the cold air and storm track shifts north into the central plains. Could be winter cancel in Texas outside of the panhandle.

I certainly hope so. Monday it will be March, the beginning of the meteorological Spring, so it's about time this never-ending cold, dreary winter came to an end. Bring on Spring...the wildflowers, sun, shorts, and top-down weather for a change.

Not much sun today (I think I saw it peek through the clouds earlier), but we're getting some good old fashioned thunderstorms today. It is so dark out right now and I've had several of those house shaking thunders, along with a good bit of rain. It's been a while... I had missed thunderstorms. This morning's low was 20° degrees warmer than yesterday's low and yet, I was still cold at 46°. I've had a hard time staying (getting?) warm this winter, even in a heated house. lol

[Mattie]

Cooooolllllddddd light drizzle and 39 degrees now in Carrollton. . . .brrrrrrrrr. I don't mind the cold days, just the damp bone penetrating ones that we get occasionally when it rains like today.

[txagwxman]

NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

[DentonGal]

NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

I was hoping DFW would break their record this year and we could have the same headline! Waaaaa....

[DentonGal]

Cooooolllllddddd light drizzle and 39 degrees now in Carrollton. . . .brrrrrrrrr. I don't mind the cold days, just the damp bone penetrating ones that we get occasionally when it rains like today.

Tell me about it! That wind cuts through you like a knife, too. I thought for a minute it was little pieces of sleet stinging my face, but it's only 38 here in Denton, so just a brutal drizzle.

[Ntxw]

NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

Breaking snow records seems to be the theme this year east of the rockies. Are we really all that surprised? NYC seemed like it would get off the hook with the big snows to it's south early in the winter, guess not I would place bets Boston won't go untouched before all set and done.

[orangeblood]

Today's Japanese model has come in much stronger with Monday's system across North Texas. Someone is going to get a decent snowstorm out of this on the northern fringe of the precip shield. Hard to say exactly where that transition zone is setting up atm. Right now, it looks like its somewhere across the red river counties.

[CaptinCrunch]

NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

I was hoping DFW would break their record this year and we could have the same headline! Waaaaa....

March snow event in NTX are not that uncommon, and with the current pattern of below avg temps and above avg precip breaking the yearly snowfall (77/78) record can still happen.

[DentonGal]

NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

I was hoping DFW would break their record this year and we could have the same headline! Waaaaa....

March snow event in NTX are not that uncommon, and with the current pattern of below avg temps and above avg precip breaking the yearly snowfall (77/78) record can still happen.

I hope you're right Captin! I haven't totally given up on Monday's system yet! I may be -removed-, but it seems like the models can't make up their minds on this one.

[orangeblood]

I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm.

[Ntxw]

It keeps the southern energy dominant and cut off. Though it is the NAM that far out, but that's how it's trended. Boundary temps are still warm though. Keep an eye on the wrap around stuff that's when it's most likely going to happen if it does.

[DentonGal]

I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm.

Oh Orangeblood! If I only knew how to READ the 18z NAM! I'm still trying to master the GFS. Please share what it's saying.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: It keeps the southern energy dominant and cut off. Though it is the NAM that far out, but that's how it's trended. Boundary temps are still warm though.

Yep, it still looks too warm at the surface. Looking at the models, the only way this storm is going to produce any accumulations is to be get under one of the heavier producing snow bands. These bands could set up over quite a large area though.

[Ntxw]

That was my thinking based on the NAM, but again it's just that it could be overdoing the precip. If the other models get on board then it would be more interesting.

[orangeblood]

:uarrow: That was my thinking based on the NAM, but again it's just that it could be overdoing the precip. If the other models get on board then it would be more interesting.

Well the Japanese and Canadian are on board. I'm just not a big fan of the GFS with this type of system.

[Ntxw]

I do agree with you, multiple branches involved. But man if that JMA verifies I'm moving to Hawaii lol.

[wxman57]

I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm.

It's forecasting 1" of snow around Amarillo. That's it. If you are interpreting those NCEP maps to indicate snow along the Red River then you're misinterpreting the rain to be snow on those maps. Remember, the precip on those maps is for the 6 hours PRIOR TO the valid time of the map. So the precip along the Red River is falling as rain THEN the air gets cold enough. Similar issue with the Canadian model.

Here's the 18Z NAM Snow Accumulation for Monday:


And Here's the 18Z NAM Precipitation for Monday. Note all the non-snow precip:

[Nederlander]

its amazing how much this stormy weather reminds me of spring time... Its hailing in Beaumont