Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
jasons2k
Storm2k Executive
Storm2k Executive
Posts: 8245
Age: 51
Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
Location: The Woodlands, TX

Re:

#9261 Postby jasons2k » Fri Feb 26, 2010 1:47 pm

Ntxw wrote:After Monday's storm looks like the cold air and storm track shifts north into the central plains. Could be winter cancel in Texas outside of the panhandle.


I certainly hope so. Monday it will be March, the beginning of the meteorological Spring, so it's about time this never-ending cold, dreary winter came to an end. Bring on Spring...the wildflowers, sun, shorts, and top-down weather for a change.

:sun: :sun: :sun:
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#9262 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2010 1:50 pm

:uarrow: Well with the kind of winter we're in (Jan and Feb were actually warmer than average globally, with the arctic region warmer as well, but due to the blocking the cold shifted) I wouldn't let my guards down with the cold air until well into April. But in the immediate future, damp and cool streak looks to continue just not much in the way of snow and ice.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
Help Support Storm2K

User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: Re:

#9263 Postby southerngale » Fri Feb 26, 2010 2:06 pm

jasons wrote:
Ntxw wrote:After Monday's storm looks like the cold air and storm track shifts north into the central plains. Could be winter cancel in Texas outside of the panhandle.


I certainly hope so. Monday it will be March, the beginning of the meteorological Spring, so it's about time this never-ending cold, dreary winter came to an end. Bring on Spring...the wildflowers, sun, shorts, and top-down weather for a change.

:sun: :sun: :sun:


Not much sun today (I think I saw it peek through the clouds earlier), but we're getting some good old fashioned thunderstorms today. It is so dark out right now and I've had several of those house shaking thunders, along with a good bit of rain. It's been a while... I had missed thunderstorms. This morning's low was 20° degrees warmer than yesterday's low and yet, I was still cold at 46°. I've had a hard time staying (getting?) warm this winter, even in a heated house. lol
0 likes   
Please support Storm2k by making a donation today. It is greatly appreciated! Click here: Image

Image my Cowboys Image my RocketsImage my Astros

User avatar
Mattie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 583
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 7:44 pm
Location: North Texas (formerly South Louisiana)
Contact:

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9264 Postby Mattie » Fri Feb 26, 2010 2:36 pm

Cooooolllllddddd light drizzle and 39 degrees now in Carrollton. . . .brrrrrrrrr. I don't mind the cold days, just the damp bone penetrating ones that we get occasionally when it rains like today.
0 likes   

User avatar
txagwxman
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 960
Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2009 3:26 pm
Location: Tomball, TX

#9265 Postby txagwxman » Fri Feb 26, 2010 2:40 pm

NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.
0 likes   
“If you thought that science was certain - well, that is just an error on your part.”

User avatar
DentonGal
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 6:25 am
Location: Denton, TX

Re:

#9266 Postby DentonGal » Fri Feb 26, 2010 2:55 pm

txagwxman wrote:NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

I was hoping DFW would break their record this year and we could have the same headline! Waaaaa.... :cry:
0 likes   
Mom to 8 really is enough!

User avatar
DentonGal
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 6:25 am
Location: Denton, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9267 Postby DentonGal » Fri Feb 26, 2010 2:57 pm

Mattie wrote:Cooooolllllddddd light drizzle and 39 degrees now in Carrollton. . . .brrrrrrrrr. I don't mind the cold days, just the damp bone penetrating ones that we get occasionally when it rains like today.


Tell me about it! That wind cuts through you like a knife, too. I thought for a minute it was little pieces of sleet stinging my face, but it's only 38 here in Denton, so just a brutal drizzle.
0 likes   
Mom to 8 really is enough!

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

Re:

#9268 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2010 3:06 pm

txagwxman wrote:NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.


Breaking snow records seems to be the theme this year east of the rockies. Are we really all that surprised? NYC seemed like it would get off the hook with the big snows to it's south early in the winter, guess not :lol: I would place bets Boston won't go untouched before all set and done.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9269 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 26, 2010 3:19 pm

Today's Japanese model has come in much stronger with Monday's system across North Texas. Someone is going to get a decent snowstorm out of this on the northern fringe of the precip shield. Hard to say exactly where that transition zone is setting up atm. Right now, it looks like its somewhere across the red river counties.
0 likes   

User avatar
CaptinCrunch
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8728
Age: 57
Joined: Mon Nov 03, 2003 4:33 pm
Location: Kennedale, TX (Tarrant Co.)

Re: Re:

#9270 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Feb 26, 2010 3:25 pm

DentonGal wrote:
txagwxman wrote:NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

I was hoping DFW would break their record this year and we could have the same headline! Waaaaa.... :cry:


March snow event in NTX are not that uncommon, and with the current pattern of below avg temps and above avg precip breaking the yearly snowfall (77/78) record can still happen. :froze:
0 likes   

User avatar
DentonGal
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 6:25 am
Location: Denton, TX

Re: Re:

#9271 Postby DentonGal » Fri Feb 26, 2010 3:28 pm

CaptinCrunch wrote:
DentonGal wrote:
txagwxman wrote:NYC breaks all-time Feb snowfall (36.5")...old record 30.5" in 1895.
21" in Central Park.

I was hoping DFW would break their record this year and we could have the same headline! Waaaaa.... :cry:


March snow event in NTX are not that uncommon, and with the current pattern of below avg temps and above avg precip breaking the yearly snowfall (77/78) record can still happen. :froze:

I hope you're right Captin! I haven't totally given up on Monday's system yet! I may be -removed-, but it seems like the models can't make up their minds on this one.
0 likes   
Mom to 8 really is enough!

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9272 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 26, 2010 3:54 pm

I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm. :D
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#9273 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:04 pm

:uarrow: It keeps the southern energy dominant and cut off. Though it is the NAM that far out, but that's how it's trended. Boundary temps are still warm though. Keep an eye on the wrap around stuff that's when it's most likely going to happen if it does.
Last edited by Ntxw on Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:10 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
DentonGal
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 189
Joined: Sun Dec 27, 2009 6:25 am
Location: Denton, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9274 Postby DentonGal » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:04 pm

orangeblood wrote:I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm. :D

Oh Orangeblood! If I only knew how to READ the 18z NAM! I'm still trying to master the GFS. Please share what it's saying.
0 likes   
Mom to 8 really is enough!

orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re:

#9275 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:11 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: It keeps the southern energy dominant and cut off. Though it is the NAM that far out, but that's how it's trended. Boundary temps are still warm though.


Yep, it still looks too warm at the surface. Looking at the models, the only way this storm is going to produce any accumulations is to be get under one of the heavier producing snow bands. These bands could set up over quite a large area though.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#9276 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:13 pm

:uarrow: That was my thinking based on the NAM, but again it's just that it could be overdoing the precip. If the other models get on board then it would be more interesting.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


orangeblood
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3714
Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2009 6:14 pm
Location: Fort Worth, TX

Re:

#9277 Postby orangeblood » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:19 pm

Ntxw wrote::uarrow: That was my thinking based on the NAM, but again it's just that it could be overdoing the precip. If the other models get on board then it would be more interesting.


Well the Japanese and Canadian are on board. I'm just not a big fan of the GFS with this type of system.
0 likes   

User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#9278 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:21 pm

I do agree with you, multiple branches involved. But man if that JMA verifies I'm moving to Hawaii lol.
0 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.



  Help support Storm2K!

Help Support Storm2K


User avatar
wxman57
Moderator-Pro Met
Moderator-Pro Met
Posts: 22978
Age: 67
Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
Location: Houston, TX (southwest)

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9279 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:40 pm

orangeblood wrote:I think all of the North Texas folks need to check out the 18Z NAM. It's coming in line with what the Japanese model is showing for Monday's storm. :D


It's forecasting 1" of snow around Amarillo. That's it. If you are interpreting those NCEP maps to indicate snow along the Red River then you're misinterpreting the rain to be snow on those maps. Remember, the precip on those maps is for the 6 hours PRIOR TO the valid time of the map. So the precip along the Red River is falling as rain THEN the air gets cold enough. Similar issue with the Canadian model.

Here's the 18Z NAM Snow Accumulation for Monday:
Image

And Here's the 18Z NAM Precipitation for Monday. Note all the non-snow precip:
Image
0 likes   

Nederlander
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1250
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2008 4:28 pm
Location: Conroe, TX

Re: Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

#9280 Postby Nederlander » Fri Feb 26, 2010 4:53 pm

its amazing how much this stormy weather reminds me of spring time... Its hailing in Beaumont
0 likes   


Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests