NWS New Orleans

timNms · #1 Postby **timNms** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:34 am

Here we go again. What is this? 3-4 days out? I'm not going to get my hopes up this time lol

GFS SHOWS A SHARP THICKNESS TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH CAN GO INTO BRIEF
WINTRY PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
ENDING. BELIEVE THE PRECIPITATION AREA WILL HAVE MOVED WELL SOUTH
AND EAST OF OUR CWA TO PRECLUDE ANY SLEET CONSIDERATIONS BY FRIDAY
EVENING...THOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE TO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. IF THE
SUB-TROPICAL JET CAN BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF THE LOUISIANA COAST
BY THE WEEKEND...THEN PERHAPS SOME OF THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF
THIS SEASON MAY BE REALIZED SUNDAY MORNING.

#2 Postby **gboudx** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:53 am

The NO NWS has been very conservative all Winter with cold air. Considering how conservative they've been, I find this interesting. Some local NO TV mets post on a message board. I'm pose this to them and see what they say. Stay tuned.

timNms · #3 Postby **timNms** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 8:58 am

gboudx, I'm looking forward to hearing what your local mets say about the discussion. I'll email our local met and see what he says.
NWS in Jackson seemed a bit concerned about it last night. (See: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=24656 )

NWS in Jackson still concerned about Wed-Fri:
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME A TRICKY ISSUE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STRONGER SOUTHWARD SURGE OF COLDER AIR
ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM WRN CANADA. JUST HOW QUICKLY THIS
COLD AIR ARRIVES INTO THE REGION COULD PRESENT PRECIP TYPE PROBLEMS.
FOR NOW WILL KEEP IN LINE WITH GFS/ETA BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS WHICH
KEEP AREAS AFFECTED BY RAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THE ETA
THERMAL PROFILES FROM 850MB AND ABOVE BECOME QUITE COLD BEYOND 60
HRS AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM...IMPORTANT UNCERTAINTIES EXIST FOR LATE THIS WEEK...
MORE SPECIFICALLY, HOW FAR SOUTH INTO THE GULF WILL THE PRIMARY
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHIFT...AND HOW MUCH IF ANY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
WILL FALL OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS KEEPS MOST PRECIP TO OUR
SOUTH LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND WILL KEEP FORECAST THIS WAY FOR
NOW...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE EYE ON THE SCENARIO AS COLD AIR
WILL BE IN PLACE. HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MODIFICATION OF TEMPS WILL TAKE PLACE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AS THE COLD MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SHEARS OUT AND EJECTS
EWD OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC.

wrkh99 · #4 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 10:56 am

It will never snow here ! Winter is over ... Bring on the canes

#5 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:45 am

I am so tired of being let down and being dissapointed. I'll believe it when I see it, though I would love for it to be true!!!
I'll keep my fingers crossed!

PTrackerLA · #6 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:48 am

Sounds interesting but I don't really see how we have a shot of winter precip down here. Hopefully mother nature proves me wrong.

wrkh99 · #7 Postby **wrkh99** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 11:48 am

Has it ever snowed around Mardi Gras ?

#8 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 12:08 pm

I remember a few years back we did have snow flurries around Mardi Gras!!! Don't know the year though.

timNms · #9 Postby **timNms** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:34 pm

bfez, I'm with you. Seeing is believing.

#10 Postby **bfez1** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 2:37 pm

timNms wrote:bfez, I'm with you. Seeing is believing.

Yep, I'll believe it when I see it!!! :roll:

PTrackerLA · #11 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Feb 09, 2004 4:08 pm

I remember one year back in the 80's when Mardi Gras parades were cancelled over here because of extremely cold weather and wind chills.

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