How far in advance is it safe to predict?

Winter Weather Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
wsquared77
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 186
Age: 48
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 6:50 pm
Location: New Bern NC
Contact:
Contact wsquared77

How far in advance is it safe to predict?

#1 Postby wsquared77 » Fri Jan 28, 2005 7:59 pm

I live in Miami and I planning to fly with my 2-year-old to Western North Carolina (Asheville) on Saturday morning 2/12 to completely surprise my parents with a visit from their grandson. Some of the 15 day forcasts go up through Friday 2/11 and they are saying possible snow. I know that that forcast can change a lot between now and then but by what date should I feel fairly confident in the forcast and how it might affect my travel plans? I'm working in a very short window (I finish my current job on 2/11 and begin my new one on 2/16) and will only be able to visit for a few days anyway so I don't have much wiggle room. Thanks for your thoughts!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
therock1811
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5163
Age: 39
Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 2:15 pm
Location: Kentucky
Contact:
Contact therock1811

#2 Postby therock1811 » Fri Jan 28, 2005 8:34 pm

I would say you will be more certain by 2/9. It's too early to predict any more than 4 days ahead with today's knowledge. Those 15 day forecasts are usually based on one model anyway.
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38089
Age: 36
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#3 Postby Brent » Fri Jan 28, 2005 9:22 pm

4-5 days IMO, but sometimes that can be a stretch.

15 days out is known as "la la land". The models always show something different every run.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
therock1811
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5163
Age: 39
Joined: Thu May 15, 2003 2:15 pm
Location: Kentucky
Contact:
Contact therock1811

#4 Postby therock1811 » Fri Jan 28, 2005 9:32 pm

Brent wrote:4-5 days IMO, but sometimes that can be a stretch.

15 days out is known as "la la land". The models always show something different every run.


Oh believe me, I know all about that "la la land"! If it's 4 days out or less, I pretty much take it to the bank.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Winter Weather”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 3 guests